Ukraine is turning red.
Their war with Russia hasn’t stopped in more than three years, despite unsuccessful efforts by various parties to reach at least a ceasefire. The constant evolution of the battlefield, especially with the design of increasingly cheap and agile drones, just leads to more conflict.
Russia has focused its strategy on erosion. It will exsanguinate Ukrainian forces at all costs, even if the Russian human cost is much higher. To that end, they have deployed a global recruitment network to supply their divisions with cannon fodder.
North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, Angola, Somalia and China are some of the countries that have contributed – both voluntarily and involuntarily – troops to Russia’s military campaign. It is the world’s most racially diverse army, far outstripping mercenary units and special forces such as the French Foreign Legion.
The Russian federation has used the most ruthless tactics to break Ukrainian morale: Ukrainian children have been kidnapped to educate them about Russian customs in Siberia, genocide of entire populations and concentration camps built.
They have not won a decisive victory since nearly the first year of the war. But unfortunately, Russia always has the special charter of winter. Russian fighter bombers are now focusing their attacks on Ukraine’s power plants, in order to deprive the millions who still resist of heat.
Ukraine has one of the best defended electricity networks in the world, but its production was greatly weakened after the loss of the nuclear plant in Zaporiyia at the beginning of the war. The situation becomes worse every day.
The war also becomes a race against time for both sides. For Ukraine, they must resist at all costs until spring arrives and with it the “rasputitsa,” the famous Ukrainian mud that stops any offensive operation.
For Russia, the situation is no better. Added to the accumulated losses is an economy with higher inflation and less labor, plus economic sanctions and a lack of Western products, such as AMD’s smart chips that powered Russian tank computers and IVF.
But if Russia really wants to impose a Slavic hegemony in Europe, it becomes more difficult every day. Western countries have emerged from the long lethargy which left them with World War II, and are rearming at full speed.
The foreign policy handled by the Trump administration has made clear that, in the long run, the surest bet for the European Union is to bet on themselves.
If Russia doesn’t finish its campaign in Ukraine and start looking more to the West, the golden window for dominating Eastern European countries will close, hopefully forever.
Many may have forgotten Ukraine, but they continue to fight. With both sides on the verge of breaking, any action that could tip the balance is not going to be a mere declaration of intent, but a break point that can break the front line in favor of either side.
Now that the Venezuela issue is closed, Trump should focus on Ukraine and offer help to civilians who are at risk of freezing to death, just like Europe. Elon Musk has already shown more support than the various world leaders, permanently disconnecting Russia from the Starlink network and leaving the Russians fighting as if they were in the 80s.
With the current picture, the worst that can be done is to do nothing, and even if you have no glimpse of an end to the war or even a truce at the moment, we can say that we are at the end of the beginning, and from now on only the costly uphill climb until peace is achieved.