We made it, and now that we are here, no worse for wear. This is our continued coverage of the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics men’s ice hockey, as we bring you our predictions for the semifinals, featuring Team Canada and Team Finland. Who do you have in this one, one of the tournament favourites in Canada or the confident underdog Finnish side, let’s discuss. And before we get to that, we do want to congratulate Team USA for an amazing overtime victory over Canada in the women’s final earlier.
2026 Olympics Semifinals Hockey Predictions Canada and Finland
Venue: Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in beautiful picturesque Milan, Italy.
How to Watch: CBC, CBC Gem, TSN, ICI Télé, USA TV Network
Puck Drop: 10:40 a.m Eastern Standard Time, Friday, February 20th, 2026.
We will try to do it justice, discussing the history between the two sides. We will go beyond the Olympics, and side with recent history. So, for best-on-best competition, we will journey back to a natural cut-off at the 1998 Nagano Winter Olympics. There is an interesting nuisance that that was around the time (most) all the countries that are competitive at the highest-level of best-on-best competition really made a name for themselves. With only four teams remaining at these Olympics, Canada, USA, Finland, and Slovakia, they have all been strong since around that time. But for today’s discussion, as to avoid a tangent, let’s narrow our sights in on best-on-best, Canada and Finland.
The Recent Best-On-Best History Between the Clubs
Given these parameters, since 1998, Canada and Finland have squared off against each other only six times (within the four at the Olympics, and once each at the 2004 World Cup of Hockey and the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off). In total throughout those six games, Canada is 4-2, but the total goal differential is 14-12. Only two of those meetings were decided by two goals, the rest were decided by just one.
Of those six games, three were in the round robin or preliminary round, and the other three were elimination or championship games. Finland won (3-2) in the Bronze Medal game in Nagano, and then Canada won their quarterfinal matchup at the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics (2-1), and finally, the championship game of the 2004 World Cup of Hockey. Canada prevailed in that one by a score of 3-2. In any case, this matchup has been (historically) ultra close. Canada and Finland do share a bond that ice hockey is, if not the most popular sport for each country, very close to it. Finland tends to play a brand of hockey that showcases high hockey IQ, not so much skill like some of their fellow European countries, Sweden to the west a great example. This year’s meeting has many of the same features.
The Offensive Leaders
Let’s be honest, one of Canada’s strengths, and often times is the case, is their advantage in high-end skill. Connor McDavid and Macklin Celebrini being one-two in tournament scoring is perfect imagery. They have 11 and nine points, respectively. As a note, Lucas Raymond of Team Sweden is tied with Celebrini in points, too. In contrast, when it comes to Finland’s top producers, they are a bit behind, Artturi Lehkonen and Mikko Rantanen with five points each, pace the Finnish side. But of course, that just plays on Finland’s reputation, to be a strong defensive club. Let’s take a look at the top-five teams as ranked by fewest goals allowed this tournament.
Team – Games – Goals Against – Team Save Percentage
- USA – 4 – 6 – .935
- Canada – 4 – 6 – .933
- Finland – 4 – 7 – .929
- Slovakia – 4 – 10 – .929
- Switzerland – 5 – 11 – .926
Needless to say, the remaining teams seem to have a similar formula worked out, defence wins championships. In any case, we expect the goaltending matchup as follows. For Canada, despite the rough season at the NHL level that had raised much controversy in the crease prior to the commencement of the tournament, we have confidently thrown those numbers out the window. Jordan Binnington won the 2019 Stanley Cup for the St. Louis Blues, and he also stole the show at the 2025 4 Nations overtime finale. He puts his .920 SV% in these Olympics on the line in this one.
The Puck Stops Here
Meanwhile for Team Finland, it is Juuse Saros. Interestingly enough, he is another goalie having a down year, statistically. As evidence, his career save percentage is .912, but only .892 this year. But again, he has given the heave-ho to those numbers in this tournament posting a sparkling .938 SV%.
Saros is known as one of the great goalies in the game over the past number of years. In his lateral movement, there is one way to possibly counteract that maybe an overpassing strategy cause once he gets side-to-side quickly, maybe it can be difficult to get back. Just a thought, of course, we always like the crash the crease theory as well. In the end, given the awesome play of both goalies, we don’t see it as a huge differentiator in deciding a winner.
The News on Team Canada’s Captain
The other significant variable is the health of Sidney Crosby. Now, Canada can’t use it as an excuse in one sense that the Finns are without, basically their best player, Aleksander Barkov. Barkov has missed the entire NHL season after requiring surgery from a pre-season injury. However, it isn’t tit-for-tat, because Canada had been building chemistry in the tournament with Crosby on the lines. As of today (Thursday), head coach Jon Cooper just said, “there’s a chance” that Crosby plays tomorrow (Friday). The plan is for him to skate in the morning to give it a test. We will add, we really hope he plays. This could be his last Olympics after all, after winning gold in 2010 and 2014 for Canada.
One other point we learned today, is a reason that Sam Bennett sat out Wednesday’s quarterfinal victory versus Team Czechia. Now we don’t know 100% if he might’ve sat anyway, but he did have an illness, as was reported today. We still aren’t sure about defenceman Josh Morrissey, but he did take part in the optional skate on Thursday. Bennett did, too, for that matter. But for Morrissey, it is his ability to push the play offensively that is something Canada would like to have at its disposal.
From Team Finland’s camp, they seem pretty healthy overall. Therefore, it should be relatively easy to understand the matchup game you would want to strategize ahead of time.
For Canada, it really does depend on Crosby’s availability. Having Crosby on that line with Mitch Marner and Mark Stone, really helped spread out the depth of Canada’s attack. However, as we saw late in the game against Czechia, someone by the name of Nick Suzuki raised his game to another level. That’s what we have been waiting for on Team Canada. Someone like Mike Richards in 2010 or Jeff Carter from 2014 to be the ultimate unsung hero. And why not Suzuki? He is one of the premier two-way forwards in the game. Moreover, on Team Canada, he is just another cog in the gears. The point is, anyone is as likely to play the role of hero, but only those that do, will be remembered.
Our Hockey Predictions from the 2026 Milano Cortina Olympics
Let’s also not forget Finland had a late dash comeback in their quarterfinal. It wasn’t until 13:54 of the third period that they even got their first goal. Less than ten minutes of gametime later, it was 3-2 in overtime versus Switzerland.
So, will Canada be able to sail through as the favourites? Or will this be a fight to the finish, one that heroes will be born. We can’t wait to find out. Finland’s notorious tight checking will be on display in this one. However, we think Canada’s speed and high-end depth, if they stay patient, like in the Czechia game, ultimately prevails.
Prediction: Canada 3 – Finland 2 (in regulation)
Main Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images
We must add our lineup disclaimer to please check social media to confirm the latest of who’s in and who’s out.
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Latest for @TheAthletic on Sidney Crosby from Milan today ⤵️https://t.co/M67ruJ5sgO
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) February 19, 2026
In this early edition of the Friday Four, @amato_mike looks at where Canada should deploy Nathan MacKinnon, Connor Hellebuyck’s shutdown performances and much more. https://t.co/tJpJuhcCXX
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) February 19, 2026