Climate change has been the main factor shaping the olive oil sector, influencing both production and market trends, according to Assitol, the Italian Olive Oil Industry Association (Assitol).
The current olive oil campaign, which is now coming to an end, has been marked by both highs and lows due to extreme weather events, the association noted.
Forecasts in September of 2025 projected production at 300,000 tonnes, marking a return to normal conditions after years of drought and high costs.
“In part, this has been the case,” stated Anna Cane, president of Assitol and added, “Italy has certainly recovered in terms of quantity and market position. However, over the months, expectations have scaled down due to climate instability, which has now become a major disruptive factor.”
Spain, the market leader in production volume, has been suffering from recurrent flooding for months, Assitol noted, adding that severe weather also affected southern Italy during the winter.
On the other hand, warmer temperatures in recent years have enabled regions such as Piedmont and the Aosta Valley to explore olive cultivation.
Cane commented, “Our concern is that the current climate phase could irreparably damage the plants, worsening the historic production deficit of Italian olive growing, which covers only one-third of our domestic demand, amounting to 1 million tons.”
As a result, oil companies have been forced to import from other Mediterranean regions to ensure quality.
Challenges For Olive Oil
Assitol has welcomed the National Olive Plan promoted by Italy’s Ministry of Agriculture, which seeks to increase production volumes and modernise the sector by introducing new cultivation systems and varieties more resistant to water stress and plant diseases.
However, the association cautioned that achieving these goals will require time and commitment.
Cane added, “In such an uncertain scenario caused by unpredictable climate conditions it is essential to diversify sourcing in order to offer consumers safe, high-quality products, thanks to our traceability and quality control systems.”
Italy relies on a national network made up of eight authorities that monitor products placed on the Italian market, from border controls to olive mills.
SIAN, the national telematic system that tracks olive oil flows entering and leaving Italy, ensures constant verification of oils produced or marketed.
“We have asked the European Commission to strengthen traceability across Europe by extending SIAN to the entire EU,” Cane stated.
Sensory Analysis
Olive oil is subject to sensory analysis for quality monitoring before entering the market.
Each mill conducts thousands of internal checks every year on raw materials and finished products, Assitol added.
The products also feature QR codes, allowing consumers to follow the entire journey of the oil, from the field to the table.
Olive oil accounts for just 4% of global edible fat consumption, according to data from the International Olive Council.
“There is still much work to be done to promote our extra virgin olive oil, which is not just a condiment, but a blend of flavour, history, health, and conviviality,” Cane said.
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