With control of the U.S. House up for grabs in this year’s midterm elections, Pennsylvania once again finds itself on the national radar with four congressional district races that could tip the balance of power.
The districts, including Rep. Scott Perry’s 10th Congressional District seat, are held by Republicans who are considered vulnerable by Democrats: Bucks County Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the 1st District; Lehigh Valley Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, a former state representative, in the 7th District, and Rep. Rob Bresnahan in northeast Pennsylvania’s 8th District.
Democrats are optimistic about flipping the seats based on recent favorable election results across the country and President Donald Trump’s sagging poll numbers amid a sputtering economy, healthcare crisis and a deadly, and increasingly unpopular, immigration crackdown.
Meanwhile, Republicans are hoping economic trends improve and betting that Democrats overplay their hand, and voters eventually decide to stick with their familiar GOP incumbents.
Either way, both sides expect four intense races in 2026 as Republicans try to hold their 218-214 advantage in the House, which currently has three vacancies.
“They’re all going to be razor-thin margins,” said Vince Galko, a Republican strategist with Mercury Public Affairs. “They’re all going to be dogfights.”
Democrats have repeatedly targeted Perry and Fitzpatrick, but both continually fend off challenges.
Fitzpatrick cruised to victory in 2024 with over 56% of the vote while Perry inched by former TV anchor Janelle Stelson to his seventh term by a little more than 1% in a district that is gradually becoming a purple battleground.
Bresnahan and Mackenzie are each in their first term after narrow victories two years ago but, as Galko noted, the toughest re-election bids for incumbents are their first ones.
“They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results,” said Matt Beynon, a Perry campaign spokesman.
“The (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) targeted Congressman Perry in 2018, 2020, 2022 and then again in 2024, and they failed each and every time,” Beynon said. “Congressman Perry is prepared for a serious campaign, and he is confident that the voters of south-central Pennsylvania will once again reelect him to continue serving the area in Congress because they know he is fighting for them, their values and their priorities.”
Leading political handicappers agree that the 7th District will be close with the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rating it as a “toss-up.”
Cook and the Crystal Ball have the 10th District as a toss-up while Inside Elections rates it as a “tilt Republican” race along with the 8th District. Cook and the Crystal Ball have the 8th District rated as “lean Republican”
Confidence is higher for Fitzpatrick’s chances in the 1st District race, which is rated “likely R” by Cook and “lean R” by Inside Elections and the Crystal Ball.
Eli Cousin, a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson, said that “all four of Pennsylvania’s swing-seat Republican congressmen are uniquely vulnerable due to their own failures and self-inflicted wounds.”
Perry is seen as an ultra-conservative in a changing district and Fitzpatrick has been chided for his cringe-inducing balancing act on major votes in the House, while Bresnahan has been battered by questions about his stock trading and Mackenzie for backing the Trump agenda.
“What Bresnahan, Mackenzie, Fitzpatrick and Perry all have in common is the fact that they have overseen skyrocketing costs on everything from healthcare to groceries to electricity — and they will be held accountable for their records at the ballot box in November,” said Cousin.
But National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Reilly Richardson said the party is “united and ready to win” in the fall.
“President Trump and House Republicans have been successful in Pennsylvania by being laser-focused on lowering costs, improving community safety and strengthening American manufacturing,” said Richardson. “While disorganized Democrats continue to nominate out-of-touch candidates who move further left by the day, Republicans are united and ready to win this November.”
Sarah Niebler, an associate professor of political science at Dickinson College, said there are a dwindling number of truly competitive House races across the country so the ones that are — such as the four in Pennsylvania — draw even more attention from the parties.
Add that to the mix with ongoing partisan redistricting in states and the slim margin the GOP holds in the House and you have a recipe for some potentially white-hot races, she said.
Niebler said the 10th District race will likely be “the most competitive of the four” targeted seats because of Stelson’s showing in 2024, when she lost to Perry by just about 5,100 votes, her established name recognition and ability to raise money.
Galko, though, said Stelson’s familiarity among voters peaked two years ago and Perry should survive the rematch.
“At the end of the day, voters are going to come home with Scott Perry,” said Galko. “It’ll be a fight, but I think he knows how to win that seat.”
Perry and his three GOP colleagues already face an uphill battle because of the usual midterm spanking voters give candidates from the party that holds the White House, and Trump’s consistently poor polling only makes matters worse.
Galko, however, said it would be a “risky proposition” for Democrats to rely on Trump’s low approval numbers to last through November because a shift in the economy could drastically change the political landscape.
While Democrats will tie the four Republican incumbents to Trump, Galko said the lawmakers need to localize their races, focusing on what they have done for their districts.
Shoring up their bases will be key for the Republicans followed by reaching out to independent and undecided voters … and getting them excited enough to show up on Nov. 3.
“You’ve got to identify your voters and turn them out,” Galko said, “that’s campaign 101.”
Niebler said the argument to voters that they could tilt the House one way or another resonates now more than ever with the attention being paid to politics, widespread opposition to Trump and the president warning that a Democratic-controlled House would target him for impeachment and bog down his agenda for the next two years.
Building on what Galko said about turnout, Republicans must get loyal Trump voters enthused enough to vote instead of sitting the election out with the president not on the ticket.
Democrats, on the other hand, will have popular Gov. Josh Shapiro leading their ticket and Shapiro, now polling with around 60% approval, has vowed to do everything he can to help flip the four seats.
As one Democratic operative put it, “It’s not possible to overstate how important it is to have Josh Shapiro on the top of the ticket for us.”