Aurimas Navys: Putin’s end is coming and it’s time to talk about it openly.

THE END OF THE PUTIN ERA

Yes, the end of the “great” era of Putin is coming, the crash, and it’s time to talk about it loudly and openly. This analysis will be simple, understandable, but, as always, it will stand on the foundation of arguments and facts. Because our goal is not likes, followers, supporters, we are not trying to impress anyone or create boohoo! effect.

So, we will rely not on who said what at the Munich Security Conference, not on how who spoke, but on a puzzle of numbers and actions on the ground. US actions in “capturing” a Russian pirate ship off Iceland, despite Russia’s open nuclear threat, tell us a lot more than Trump’s posturing of being friends with Putin.

We’re well aware that it would be much more fun to hang out discussing some of the heads of state’s quibbles, but let’s leave that to the kitchen of VBS gossip and trinket talkers.

Thus, Russia is clearly losing in realizing its strategic goals – it can be said that it has already lost the war declared against the West. This fact is discussed by smarter European politicians and journalists, and even by representatives of Russia itself, politicians such as Yablok leader Grigoriy Yavlinsky, historian-journalist Alexey Venediktov and others. The Kremlin’s main propaganda channels are already sounding (understandably, orchestrated) the opinion that Russia will not win the war against Ukraine, because the Ukrainians are fighting like crazy and are “no worse soldiers than the Russians” (what the hell?). Such a narrative from the lips of the Kremlin allows us to claim that Moscow (ie FSB, SVR, GRU at the same time) has started a process aimed at influencing the consciousness of the Russian masses, preparing for further scenarios of “possible” defeat against Ukraine and reconciliation with the current situation. This is necessary, because it will be a huge blow for millions of Russians who sought the destruction of Ukraine to realize that Russia is not only not capable of marching to Berlin or occupying Kyiv, but it is no longer capable of occupying the small town of Kupyansk.

The aces of Mnogokhodovka, in the gloomy offices decorated with Lenin, Sralin and Putler, see that, as you can count, the reality is radically different from what was dreamed of before the occupation of Crimea and the full-scale invasion.

What are the big goals that Russia has not and will not achieve?

The Kremlin’s plan-ultimatum to return Europe and America to 1997 failed. geopolitical framework.

The plan to divide and destroy NATO failed. The alliance has expanded, strengthened and rearmed at the fastest pace since the Cold War.

Intentions to demilitarize Ukraine have failed – the country has an army of one million armed with the most modern Western weapons.

Plans to dictate world oil prices and influence oil production with the help of OPEC+ have failed.

Intentions to overshadow the economy of Western countries and push the dollar and euro out of the currency market with the help of the BRICS union failed. India intercepted several Russian pirate tankers, demonstrating that not Moscow, but profit (trade with the West) is India’s real ally.

It was not possible to agree with the US on the division of the spheres of influence, because Washington declared that the Western Hemisphere (erm, until Iran…) is the zone of American interests, and anyone who dares to poke their nose into this part of the globe will be hit.

Russia’s plans to compete with the West in the field of arms production collapsed, the US statement to increase war spending by one and a half times, pushed Russia into the dump of third countries.

During the four years of the war, Moscow lost its allies – Syria, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and lost its influence in the Middle East, Africa, and the Arctic region.

After the US withdrew from START, Moscow cried bloody tears that strategic arms control was necessary, as was the United Nations Security Mechanism. Having spat and trampled on this organization for a whole year, Moscow is now clinging to it as the last straw of a clear world order. Russia wants strategic arms control because it realizes that the arms race has already been lost.

What the Kremlin has lost could be listed in several more pages, but let’s stop at the mentioned points. All that we have listed is a clear proof of the collapse of the Putin era. Failure is inevitable. Inevitable because the processes have started and moved forward.

Putin was deceived. Many were deceived, including the great supporter Xi Jinping, who made this whole mess by promising to support Russia until Putin “regains” all "lost" lands.

The problem for Kremlin strategists is that in creating various ABCD scenarios, retreat options and mnogochodovkas, the Russians miscalculated and did not foresee what happened. The Russians hoped to divide the world by returning to a bipolar or tripolar model dominated by Russia, the US plus China. According to the Kremlin’s plan, two clear borders, two East-West poles, with clear red lines were to be formed. Moscow dreamed of regaining its sphere of influence as far as central Europe. However, the Kremlin certainly did not foresee that the war started by Moscow would fundamentally disrupt the world order, shake the old foundations and start the formation of a new world. No one could have expected that Europe would jump into India’s arms, major countries would be friends with China, and Canada would recognize yesterday’s number one enemy, Beijing, as its new partner.

The foundations of the old world are crumbling before our eyes. A new order is taking shape, based on trade, spheres of influence, global investments and market conquest. Namely – order. Rasiya is not present in the creation scripts of this order. Every Lithuanian child understands why. Because Rasieja is a guarantor of chaos, war and blood. Such a partner is not desirable at all. Avoidable.

Anyone following official and unofficial Kremlin communications has noticed how the tone of Lavrov and other speakers of SVR messages has changed in recent months. It varied from accusing Macron of fascism to asking not to break diplomatic relations between the EU and Russia, from threatening war and accusations that the West attacked Russia with the hands of Ukraine, to saying that Russia is part of Europe, so we will still have to live together and negotiate. It is not by chance that Javlinskis’s lips are announcing preparations that Russia’s future is not with China, but with Ukraine and Europe. Therefore, it is said that everyone needs to sit down and talk. The Russians, who still have a little common sense, realized that the Russians are not a friend to China, but an easy bite, so the drained country will be swallowed like a stork frog lazily wandering around the swamp… Meanwhile, it is Europe that is the real guarantor of economic stability and a zero military threat.

But Kremlin strategists need time. Realizing that it will not be possible to capture Ukraine, they will do everything to maintain their positions, the minimum is to get Donbass and sell it to their people as the liberation of Novorossiya and the annexation of new territories. Otherwise, when Ukraine launches an offensive, the front line may collapse and unrest in Russia may develop into mass riots and chaos. However, Kremlin spec. services have always operated according to pre-prepared scenarios, so it seems that they are preparing for a similar move now.

So, the war in Ukraine can end at any moment. Putin may get sick or something suddenly and unexpectedly happen to him (according to the scenario). There is only one but – during all these twelve years of Russia’s war in Ukraine, we had and will have to deal not with Putin or his replacement, but with those who create plans to control the internal situation in the offices of Bortnikov, Patrushev, Naryshkin and Zolotov. Therefore, war and peace depend on the situation within the Race. And depending on what kind of thinking the persons there will move (will be placed) closer to the levers of control. If moderate “liberals” like Mishustin, Kozak, Yavlinsky appear, peace will probably come very soon, although it is far from liberating Ukraine. Russia will continue its expansionist policy only with other, less primitive means.

We no longer doubt that Putin’s clan will try to stay at the Kremlin’s levers for a very long time – until the end. That is why Putin now needs to demonstrate that Russia is a powerful nuclear power that can attack Europe at any time, occupy the so-called Suwalki corridor with all of Marijampole, Narva, occupy Moldova, attack Finland, etc. All these are fairy tales that, unfortunately, are believed by very serious Western analysts, politicians, the Russian “opposition” working for the Kremlin “in the dark”, and they voice these messages. This gives Moscow leverage in the “peace” negotiations and the ability to further delay the war and destroy Ukraine.

These and similar narratives of the Kremlin, such as the fragmentation of the EU, NATO, the scenarios of Article 5’s ineffectiveness or failure to act, are messages threaded by Kremlin psychooperants to the Westerners, who, without realizing it, repeat them. By the way, when the sounds of indignation about the US conflict with Denmark over Greenland echoed, the air forces of NATO countries – the US, Canada, Denmark, Sweden, France, Iceland – conducted exercises to ensure the security of Greenland.

We are as safe as ever.

As one former minister who has become a classic said there? Ah yes, sleep tight.