They just keep piling up these special election winsÂ
jediporcupine on
I hope you’re paying attention, Susan Collins.
Rock-n-roll-Kevin on
Democrats defeated Republicans to defend a pivotal House seat in Maine tonight.
Democrat Scott Harriman will represent Maine’s 94th state House district.
Mikethebest78 on
Any victory is important right now. On to November!!!
saucy_ladybug on
It’ll be interesting to see if this is part of a larger pattern.
Catcher3321 on
This was roughly a 12% GOP overperformance from 2024
wicked_firefly on
Turnout in these races can be surprisingly telling.
dirty_sunflower on
This will likely be dissected for broader implications.
Regular_Maize_3334 on
Yeah Susan! This is or is NOT your moment!
poopdedoop10 on
Pedo party is unpopular to most normal people. So it makes sense that the republicans lost. Ever since going full send on pedo support, many have chosen to leave the Republican Party.
brazen_buttercup on
State level wins often outward.
PipeComfortable2585 on
Good job Maine! Congrats
teasing_bumblebee on
Special elections test enthusiasm.
Slazenger_1 on
Others are already bringing it up, but since it doesn’t look like it’s in the article:
The 2024 election was roughly 60% D and 40% R.
This one is shaping up to be around 53% D and 47% R.
EDIT: also, it looks like voter turnout for 2026 will be just under 30% of what it was in 2024.
Top_Pirate699 on
Can someone explain this election. Seems terrifying that the Democrats lost ground while winning this election? My fear is that this country really has more pedophilic, violent,racist people than not? Are Democrats once again not going to turn out? Maine, what is going on?
Appropriate_Trash129 on
I have been flagged repeatedly, which is why I do what I do ….thank you for your contribution…that I did it ask for…
ZappyStatue on
Consider this motivation to actually show up and vote. Instead of being all doomerist about how everything is going to fall apart, actually do something. Vote for Democrats in general elections up and down the ballot pretty much for the rest of your life. Because it’s going to take at least a whole generation to undo the damage that has been done by both of Trump’s presidential terms. Donate to the candidates. Knock on doors. Advertise for them. Make a sales pitch as to why people should vote for Democrats on behalf of Democrats. Do any of that (and preferably more), and you can at least say you did something positive and productive to try to save our democracy. Don’t ever stop and don’t ever give up. That’s what MAGA Republicans want you to do.
osilovom on
Small win but ill take it every time
FanGothic2 on
Stephen king must have cackled
D3struct_oh on
What’s up with all these special elections months between each other?
hunter15991 on
Since I’m seeing some people lose their minds in here over the fact that it was a rightward shift (both from the 2024 House result and from the estimated Harris results for the seat), some important context is that both candidates are local elected officials – the (D) on the city council, the (R) on the school board.
In theory both represent the same amount of people (give or take a bit), since Lewiston draws its wards to be of equal population. But that doesn’t mean there’s the same amount of eligible voters in each ward. Compare results from their elections last November:
A *lot* more voters in this district likely had only recently already gone out during a relatively low-turnout election and voted for Beaudoin than those that voted for Harriman. That in turn meant a lot of effort was needed by Harriman to introduce himself to enough Gould voters (as well as Osman/Projansky, Dem. council candidates in the segments of two other wards – 5 and 7 – that make up HD94). Honestly the more I look over the math at a local level (vs. how statewide candidates have performed) the more I’m surprised Dems won here at all with Beaudoin being who she was.
Why the gulf specifically in ward turnout (as a % of total population) in Lewiston? Two factors:
* Bates College is in Ward 3. Beyond typical turnout lag among university students, I’d wager a large percent of them are registered in their home states – [only ~10% of the school is from Maine](https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/bates-college/student-life/diversity/chart-geographic-breakdown.html). While I assume the fact that ME-02 is a competitive Congressional district might move a few voters at the margins to register at their Bates address (esp. students from ME-01), and while a chunk of Bates is in HD93 instead, a sizable portion of Ward 3’s population are registered to vote elsewhere in the US.
With the precinct as small as it is, both these factors play a sizable role in dictating the total registerable Dem. pool vs. GOP pool in this district relative to what it’d look like on paper.
_____________
This kind of underperformance is also not particularly out of place in New England, which has been more inclined to vote for downballot Republicans historically than at a statewide or federal level (the inverse of what a place like KY/WV is like). For other examples from last year we’ve got:
Some overperformances, some underperformances, and nothing like the swings in other parts of the country (i.e. the D+30 point swing coming out of heavily-Hispanic HD22 today). For additional comparison, in Maine’s previous R vs. D special elections when Trump was last in office:
So combine the GOP candidate being very strong given mismatches in name recognition, the Dem. base in the area relying on two relatively lower-turnout groups (students and Black voters), and broader regional trends that mean special election swings when Trump is in office aren’t as sharp in Maine/broader New England as they are elsewhere in the country…and yeah, I can completely see R+13 vs. 2024 incumbent and R+6.8 or so vs. Harris.
21 Comments
They just keep piling up these special election winsÂ
I hope you’re paying attention, Susan Collins.
Democrats defeated Republicans to defend a pivotal House seat in Maine tonight.
Democrat Scott Harriman will represent Maine’s 94th state House district.
Any victory is important right now. On to November!!!
It’ll be interesting to see if this is part of a larger pattern.
This was roughly a 12% GOP overperformance from 2024
Turnout in these races can be surprisingly telling.
This will likely be dissected for broader implications.
Yeah Susan! This is or is NOT your moment!
Pedo party is unpopular to most normal people. So it makes sense that the republicans lost. Ever since going full send on pedo support, many have chosen to leave the Republican Party.
State level wins often outward.
Good job Maine! Congrats
Special elections test enthusiasm.
Others are already bringing it up, but since it doesn’t look like it’s in the article:
The 2024 election was roughly 60% D and 40% R.
This one is shaping up to be around 53% D and 47% R.
EDIT: also, it looks like voter turnout for 2026 will be just under 30% of what it was in 2024.
Can someone explain this election. Seems terrifying that the Democrats lost ground while winning this election? My fear is that this country really has more pedophilic, violent,racist people than not? Are Democrats once again not going to turn out? Maine, what is going on?
I have been flagged repeatedly, which is why I do what I do ….thank you for your contribution…that I did it ask for…
Consider this motivation to actually show up and vote. Instead of being all doomerist about how everything is going to fall apart, actually do something. Vote for Democrats in general elections up and down the ballot pretty much for the rest of your life. Because it’s going to take at least a whole generation to undo the damage that has been done by both of Trump’s presidential terms. Donate to the candidates. Knock on doors. Advertise for them. Make a sales pitch as to why people should vote for Democrats on behalf of Democrats. Do any of that (and preferably more), and you can at least say you did something positive and productive to try to save our democracy. Don’t ever stop and don’t ever give up. That’s what MAGA Republicans want you to do.
Small win but ill take it every time
Stephen king must have cackled
What’s up with all these special elections months between each other?
Since I’m seeing some people lose their minds in here over the fact that it was a rightward shift (both from the 2024 House result and from the estimated Harris results for the seat), some important context is that both candidates are local elected officials – the (D) on the city council, the (R) on the school board.
In theory both represent the same amount of people (give or take a bit), since Lewiston draws its wards to be of equal population. But that doesn’t mean there’s the same amount of eligible voters in each ward. Compare results from their elections last November:
City Council, Ward 3:
* Scott Harriman (D): 355
* [Charles Soule](https://www.bangordailynews.com/2012/12/18/news/former-lewiston-mayoral-candidate-acquitted-of-assault-in-scuffle-with-8-year-old/) (R): 140
School Committee, Ward 2:
* Janet Beaudoin (R): 965
* Melanie Gould (D?): 625
A *lot* more voters in this district likely had only recently already gone out during a relatively low-turnout election and voted for Beaudoin than those that voted for Harriman. That in turn meant a lot of effort was needed by Harriman to introduce himself to enough Gould voters (as well as Osman/Projansky, Dem. council candidates in the segments of two other wards – 5 and 7 – that make up HD94). Honestly the more I look over the math at a local level (vs. how statewide candidates have performed) the more I’m surprised Dems won here at all with Beaudoin being who she was.
Why the gulf specifically in ward turnout (as a % of total population) in Lewiston? Two factors:
* Bates College is in Ward 3. Beyond typical turnout lag among university students, I’d wager a large percent of them are registered in their home states – [only ~10% of the school is from Maine](https://www.collegefactual.com/colleges/bates-college/student-life/diversity/chart-geographic-breakdown.html). While I assume the fact that ME-02 is a competitive Congressional district might move a few voters at the margins to register at their Bates address (esp. students from ME-01), and while a chunk of Bates is in HD93 instead, a sizable portion of Ward 3’s population are registered to vote elsewhere in the US.
* Lewiston has a significant [Somali, Congolese, and Angolan refugee population](https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/local/maine-immigration/i-believed-we-saved-lewiston-how-somali-refugees-paved-the-way-for-todays-asylum-seekers-maine-community-immigration/97-47cda293-5a7c-4474-bdde-712f661774e4). While most have been naturalized by now and are eligible voters, and while a large portion live in the part of Ward 5 that’s in neighboring HD95, rough math from 2021 ACS estimates about 10% of the residents of the parts of Ward 3+5 within HD94 are non-citizens. They are still however Harriman’s constituents, and thus further decrease the ratio of (eligible voters represented)/(total people represented) that can be used as rough yardstick of just how useful an elected official’s name recognition is when they seek higher office.
With the precinct as small as it is, both these factors play a sizable role in dictating the total registerable Dem. pool vs. GOP pool in this district relative to what it’d look like on paper.
_____________
This kind of underperformance is also not particularly out of place in New England, which has been more inclined to vote for downballot Republicans historically than at a statewide or federal level (the inverse of what a place like KY/WV is like). For other examples from last year we’ve got:
* [CT-SD21](https://ballotpedia.org/Connecticut_State_Senate_District_21), which was a swing of just D+0.6 in Feb. 2025 rel. to 2024 results
* [CT-HD40](https://ballotpedia.org/Connecticut_House_of_Representatives_District_40), election held concurrently to SD21, swing of D+5.4 rel. to 2024 results
* [MA-HD6-Essex](https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts_House_of_Representatives_6th_Essex_District), a swing of D+0.1 in May 2025 from 2024 results – though 2024 had a 3rd party candidate crack 5%
* [MA-HD3-Bristol](https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts_House_of_Representatives_3rd_Bristol_District), concurrent to HD6-Essex, a swing of R+13.8 from 2022 House results (Dem ran unopposed in 2024) and R+5.4 relative to Harris
* [NH-HD12-Stafford](https://ballotpedia.org/New_Hampshire_House_of_Representatives_District_Strafford_12), in June 2025, a swing of R+0.5 from combined 2024 results (4 candidates from each party ran in 2024) and R+0.6 from Harris
* [NH-HD5-Coos](https://ballotpedia.org/New_Hampshire_House_of_Representatives_District_Coos_5), in Nov. 2025, a swing of D+8.6 rel to combined 2024 results (2 candidates each) and D+3.8 from Harris
Some overperformances, some underperformances, and nothing like the swings in other parts of the country (i.e. the D+30 point swing coming out of heavily-Hispanic HD22 today). For additional comparison, in Maine’s previous R vs. D special elections when Trump was last in office:
* [HD56, Nov. 2017](https://ballotpedia.org/Maine_House_of_Representatives_District_56): Swing of D+0.82 rel. to 2016 House, D+6.3 relative to Clinton.
* [HD124, Mar. 2019](https://ballotpedia.org/Maine_House_of_Representatives_District_124): Swing of D+3 rel. to 2018 House, D+11.6 rel. to Clinton
* [HD45, Jun. 2019](https://ballotpedia.org/Maine_House_of_Representatives_District_45): Swing of R+1.8 rel. to 2018, D+0.4 rel. to Clinton
* [HD128, Mar. 2020](https://ballotpedia.org/Maine_House_of_Representatives_District_128): D+11.6 rel. to 2018 numbers and D+25.8 rel. to Clinton (D+18.2 rel. to what Biden would get in November), in part because of the presidential primaries being held concurrently that day and the Dems having a competitive race there.
________
So combine the GOP candidate being very strong given mismatches in name recognition, the Dem. base in the area relying on two relatively lower-turnout groups (students and Black voters), and broader regional trends that mean special election swings when Trump is in office aren’t as sharp in Maine/broader New England as they are elsewhere in the country…and yeah, I can completely see R+13 vs. 2024 incumbent and R+6.8 or so vs. Harris.