Lithuania’s birth rate crisis, which can also be called demographic suicide*

Lithuania’s birth rate crisis, which can also be called demographic suicide*, requires immediate drastic measures to increase the birth rate, because if we do nothing, we risk disappearing as a nation. In Lithuania in 2025, the total birth rate fell to a record low level of 1.0. This means that if the birth rate remains as it was in 2025, one woman will give birth to just one child in her lifetime, and in order to ensure generational change and a stable population, this rate should reach 2.1. With such a low birth rate, immigration will not help either, because every year more immigrants should arrive than Lithuanians are born, so in that case Lithuanians would eventually become strangers in their own country. So what to do?

First of all, I would suggest nearly doubling childcare benefits (see table). Currently, after the birth of a child, SoDra pays benefits to parents for two years (you can choose a shorter term of 1.5 years**), but they are clearly too small. Therefore, the birth of a child becomes a great financial burden for families, often pushing them below the poverty line. For example, under the current system, a minimum wage earner/earner father receives a monthly allowance of just 442 euros after the birth of a child – how is it possible to support yourself and a new baby on such an amount? Therefore, I would suggest doubling the minimum payment to 884 euros (I will remind you that the poverty risk threshold in Lithuania in 2026 is ~800 euros.).

The current system is also flawed in that very low benefit ceilings apply. As a result, a mother/father who has earned 3000-6000 euros receives a benefit of only 1145 euros in the second year of the child (you can calculate the specific amounts of benefits in the SoDros calculator***). How to survive in a big city for such an amount, e.g. Paying 900 euros per month for apartment rent (or mortgage payment) in Vilnius? Isn’t a payment of this size a mockery of highly qualified professionals who pay their taxes honestly? Therefore, I would suggest increasing the ceiling of benefits from 2 VDU to 4 VDU (6,000 euros per month), thus encouraging families with higher incomes to have children (this would also increase the involvement of men in the process of raising children, because due to the low ceiling of benefits, men avoid going on parental leave – mothers make up about 75%, and men – 25% of those “on leave”).

Can we afford it? Unequivocally yes. Because the decreasing number of children born (30.1 thousand children were born in Lithuania in 2015, and only 17.5 thousand in 2025) has created a huge surplus of the maternity social insurance budget (it includes child care and maternity/paternity benefits). Until 2020, the maternity social insurance budget was slightly in deficit, but from 2021 it became surplus, and due to the drastic decrease in the birth rate in recent years, it has increased significantly, e.g. in 2024 the surplus increased to 149 million. euros, in 2025 – up to 213 million euros, and in 2026, it is planned to increase even more – up to 243 million. EUR (payments – EUR 731 million, payments – EUR 488 million)****. In other words, we are enjoying a budget surplus today at the expense of future generations (see graph in comment). Is it really worth doing this? I think not, especially since even if childcare benefits are almost doubled, the maternity social insurance budget would become only slightly in deficit (or not in deficit at all, if the number of children born this year decreases even more) – the significant budget surplus created due to the low birth rate would simply disappear. In addition, we should tolerate some kind of budget deficit, at least until the birth rate rises to 1.5 (and ideally to 2.1).

Scientific studies show that cosmetic changes do not substantially change birth rates, but radical changes like the ones I propose have the potential to significantly increase birth rates. So I think it’s worth a try. What do you think?

* Demographic suicide – this term aptly describes the latest Lithuanian birth rate data: https://www.facebook.com/zygimantas.mauricas/posts/pfbid02j1ytmQV65mwJ9vXvXCRcczuBFg2cuSfMUS9yy1TLqQS8KCY4Lwj9b8RQqGB8xXCUl

** You can choose 24 or 18 months. deadline. in 2024 according to data, 21.8 thousand population was selected for 24 months. term, and 11.0 thousand – 18 months After choosing 18 months term, the total amount of benefits received is somewhat higher (especially for persons with higher incomes), but the duration of the leave is shorter. Since most kindergartens only accept children from the age of 2 (and there is a significant shortage of them in Vilnius), the state from 2025 came up with the idea of ​​compensating the services of babysitters until the child turns 2 years old. However, the amount is impressively low – just 384 euros per month (I wonder how you can find a nanny for such an amount?): https://paslaugos.vilnius.lt/service/vaiko-prieziuros-kompensacines-ismokos-skyrimas

Queues in Vilnius kindergartens:

https://old.vilnius.lt/lt/savivaldybe/svietimas-kultura-ir-sportas/svietimas/registracija-i-vilniaus-miesto-savivaldybes-darzelius-ir-priesmokyklinio-ugdymo-grupes/pateikti-prasymai-i-darzelius/

*** Child care allowance calculator:

https://sodra.lt/skaiciuokles/vaiko-prieziuros-ismokos-skaiciuokle

**** LAW ON THE APPROVAL OF INDICATORS OF THE STATE SOCIAL FUNDS BUDGETS OF THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA FOR 2026:

https://e-seimas.lrs.lt/portal/legalAct/lt/TAK/c65aa612c5d911f08962cdb35f3f1615