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Tensions between Slovakia, Hungary, and Ukraine reached new heights over the past week, as it became clear that Russian oil hasn’t been flowing to the two EU countries through the Druzhba pipeline for weeks.
The pipeline delivers oil from Russia all the way to western Europe via Ukraine.
The flow of fossil fuel, crucial for the MOL company’s refineries in both EU member states, has in fact been halted since 27 January, when, according to Ukrainian officials, the pipeline was struck during a Russian air attack.
The oil crisis appeared to have reached a tipping point last Wednesday (18 February), when the Slovak government declared a state of oil emergency and decided to lend Slovnaft 250,000 tonnes of crude oil from state reserves.
But both Hungarian and Slovak governments refuse to acknowledge the Russian role in the crisis, and instead opt to blame Ukraine for it.
“Our intelligence information says that the damaged section [of the pipeline] the Ukrainian government is referring to has been repaired, and Russian oil can continue to flow to Slovakia and beyond through that section without any problems,” Slovak prime minister Robert Fico said at a press conference last Wednesday.
He added that Ukraine is simply blackmailing Slovakia with the oil halt.
“I have seen with my own eyes the impact of attacks, for example, on hydroelectric power plants and also on the electricity transmission network. I definitely do not think the Ukrainians are exaggerating,” said Kristina Mikulova, head of the regional hub for Eastern Europe at the European Investment Bank.
“It would also not be in Ukraine’s interest, as a future member of the European Union, to attack the pipeline on its territory and fall out with neighbouring member states, which will ultimately be the closest to Ukraine as it moves step-by-step toward membership,” she added.
The situation escalated in tit-for-tat fashion to such a degree that the European Commission called an Oil Coordination Group to meet on Wednesday (25 February) to assess the situation in Slovakia and Hungary, and possibly help resolve the conflict.
According to the commission, there is no immediate risk to the EU’s security of supply. Both Hungary and Slovakia hold oil stocks in reserve.
Both countries can access an alternative supply route: the Adria pipeline from Croatia, which has the capacity to cover sufficient volumes to meet Hungarian and Slovak requirements.
The commission also said Croatia had helped secure increased oil flows to Slovakia and Hungary through the Adria pipeline. However, it could not confirm whether Slovakia and Hungary had ordered additional volumes of non-Russian oil.
At the same time, Croatia is assessing whether it can legally accept Russian crude under both EU and US sanctions.
Both Hungary and Slovakia had already asked Croatia to deliver non-Russian oil to them in mid January, while the Balkan country refused to transport Russian oil, arguing it can legally transport just non-Russian crude —which the affected countries deemed too expensive.
Although imports of Russian oil and gas have been banned in the EU, Hungary and Slovakia have received an exemption, as their refineries are not yet adapted to process non-Russian crude oil.
While the Czech Republic and Poland cut themselves off from Russian oil after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Slovakia and Hungary continue to import it. Over the past three years, roughly nine million tonnes of Russian oil have flowed annually to MOL refineries in Hungary and Slovakia.
As a result, the two countries send around €4bn to the Kremlin each year.
Left without a way to procure Russian oil, Robert Fico, together with Viktor Orbán, halted diesel exports to Ukraine last Wednesday, continuing to place the blame on the country defending itself against Russia.
The conflict persisted, and on Monday, Hungary even maintained its veto against a new EU package of sanctions on Russia and a €90bn loan to Ukraine.
“We have not reached an agreement on the 20th sanctions package,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters. “This is a setback and a message we didn’t want to send today, but the work continues.”
Slovakia, meanwhile, said it would refuse to provide emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine if requested. The flow of electricity to Ukraine slowed to some of its lowest levels in 2026 on Tuesday, but nevertheless continued, as the volumes of emergency power halted by Fico’s decision are relatively small compared to overall electricity exports to Ukraine.
Although the standoff may play well with some of Fico’s voters at home, it has exerted little pressure on Ukraine. Other partners, including Poland and Romania, stepped in to supply the missing electricity imports.
“Slovakia is not a key source of electricity imports for Ukraine, and I can’t see any serious problem even if the Slovak government tries to stop electricity supply,” said Ukrainian energy expert Oleksandr Kharchenko of the Energy Industry Research Center.
“Over four years of war, Ukraine has learned how to manage and respond to attacks, especially on energy infrastructure — not only in winter but also in summer. It has various sources, including international support, that compensate for outages caused by such symbolic political steps,” Mikulova from the EIB added.
While Slovakia and Hungary kept up their pressure, Ukraine did not back down. Instead, overnight from Sunday to Monday, it said its drones struck the key Kaleykino station in Russia’s Volga region of Tatarstan. The facility is critical for transporting oil via the Druzhba pipeline towards central and eastern Europe.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen urged Ukraine to repair the Druzhba pipeline during a visit to Kyiv on Tuesday.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said at a joint press conference with EU representatives that repairing the oil pipeline is dangerous, as Russia is attacking Ukrainian workers.
“So why? Why repair it? So that we lose people? I think that is a very high price,” he said.
Ukraine, Romania, Moldova form cyber alliance
While some of Ukraine’s neighbours are picking diplomatic fights, others are forging new partnerships.
Ukraine, Romania and Moldova on Friday (20 February) signed a trilateral Memorandum of Understanding establishing a Cyber Alliance for Regional Resilience, Agepres reports. The initiative aims to strengthen resilience against cyber threats and hybrid threats with a cyber component, Romania’s National Cyber Security Directorate said in a statement.
Over the past several months, Romania has faced a series of large-scale ransomware incidents affecting key sectors, including the national water agency and energy providers, according to The Record.
Some of the attacks were claimed by or attributed to Russian-speaking ransomware groups, including Qilin and Gentlemen, which said they targeted Romania’s national oil pipeline operator and the country’s largest coal-based power producer.
Estonia seeks to procure hundreds of bunkers to fortify the Baltics
While Slovak and Hungarian governments may struggle to see the true aggressor in Europe, the Baltic states have no confusion about it and are moving to further fortify themselves.
Estonia aims to install up to 600 concrete bunkers along its eastern land border as part of the joint Baltic Defence Line with Latvia and Lithuania, according to ERR.
The Estonian Centre for Defence Investments (ECDI) and Latvia’s Ministry of Defence have launched a public procurement process for the bunkers. The initiative is designed to halt a potential military attack at the eastern borders of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
The defence ministers of the three countries approved the Baltic Defence Line initiative back in January 2024.
The project, however, has been struggling with delays. For example, Estonia’s section of the Baltic Defence Line has been delayed by nearly a year and will now be completed by late 2027.
In the meantime, the Baltic countries have already laid the first line of defence against possible invaders by lining their borders with Russia, Belarus with dragon’s teeth — lines of concrete, pyramidal obstacles.