On today’s Brussels Playbook Podcast: Zoya and Sarah look at how geopolitics is changing the way EU ambassadors work — and what went down when a familiar face reappeared on the Brussels scene.
CIAO THERE. Gerardo Fortuna with you this Thursday morning. I hope you managed to soak up some Vitamin D yesterday, with Brussels finally delivering its first properly sunny, almost-warm day in what feels like ages. Today should be decent, albeit slightly less radiant. Let’s dive in.
DRIVING THE DAY 
IT’S THE ONLY QUESTION IN TOWN: How do you persuade Viktor Orbán to lift his veto on a technical element of the Ukraine financial aid package before Kyiv runs out of cash at the end of March — without turning him into a martyr in the midst of the Hungarian election campaign?
The dilemma is still consuming Brussels, even as top officials insist there’s no need to panic. At the Commission’s midday briefing yesterday, spokesperson Paula Pinho stuck to the script: The EU will deliver support to Ukraine “one way or another” … options exist … they’re being examined … they won’t be spelled out at this stage.
**A message from the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion: The European Employment and Social Rights Forum is back on 3-4 March, at The EGG in Brussels and online. This year’s focus: how to empower people in times of change. Register now to take part.**
What’s the way through? Talking to contacts across Brussels, the broad picture that emerges is this: Capitals want a political solution, not a frontal legal assault that would play into Orbán’s hands domestically. The ideal outcome is a compromise he can sell as a win at home — while allowing the EU loan to be disbursed before Ukraine hits its financial cliff edge.
Here’s Playbook’s very own “options paper”:
A) Back to frozen Russian assets: If Hungary blocks the loan, pivot back to using proceeds from immobilized Russian assets. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas hinted earlier this week that Plan A — the assets — remains on the table.
But but but … The assets debate has already dragged on for months. Re-litigating it now doesn’t solve the immediate liquidity problem. Nor is it clear what leverage Belgium, where most assets are held, can realistically exert over Hungary.
Chances: Low.
B) Some obscure clauses in the treaties: European Council President António Costa has hinted that “the solution is in the treaties,” with references to the principle of sincere cooperation and potential treaty violations. And yet … even if a violation were established, legal proceedings would take years. Three diplomats told us such routes were not seriously considered at the ambassador level this week. “There isn’t time for the legal option,” one said flatly, adding that the solution has to be political.
Chances: Minimal. Legally intriguing, politically irrelevant to the March deadline.
C) Fix the oil pipeline: Orbán has pointed to concerns about the Druzhba pipeline that transports Russian oil through Ukraine — which Kyiv claims was damaged by a Russian drone strike — as part of his justification. One approach being discussed is to remove that excuse. Assurances could be offered that oil will continue to flow to Hungary and Slovakia, neutralizing Orbán’s objection. Some officials are even talking about using satellite imagery to challenge claims that the pipeline is inoperable. (Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy said yesterday the pipeline can’t be repaired quickly regardless of the EU’s demands, Reuters reports.)
Chances: Real. It reframes the dispute without reopening the core aid package. “He’ll have his goddamned pipeline,” said one diplomat. “This Druzhba story is not credible in any way, but he has to have a victory in his campaign.”
D) Sweeten the defense pot: Hungary has backed the EU’s broader defense push and is seeking access to billions under the €150 billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loans scheme. Some diplomats suspect this may be the real pressure point. Budapest is seeking €16 billion under the program. The Council has approved most national plans; the Commission is still finalizing the last three, including Hungary’s.
Chances: High. It offers a face-saving trade that aligns with Hungary’s strategic priorities. “Isn’t that what Orbàn always want, in the end?” said one diplomat.
E) Trump ex machina: A couple of diplomats floated a wildcard: What if the U.S. president simply calls Orbán and tells him not to obstruct Ukraine funding? It’s happened before — though relying on an unpredictable actor is hardly a strategy.
Chances: Don’t bet on it.
PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW
METSOLA ON A MISSION: European Parliament President Roberta Metsola spent 24 hours in London holding talks with senior lawmakers, ministers and Prime Minister Keir Starmer to push for closer ties between the EU and U.K. nearly a decade after the Brexit vote. She told an audience at the Chatham House think tank that Britain and the EU were commanding their own ships but should recognize when it is wiser “to sail in a convoy.”
SAFE passage: Metsola told POLITICO’s Tim Ross after her speech that London and Brussels should return to the negotiating table to strike a deal for British defense companies to participate in the EU’s €150-billion SAFE loans-for-weapons program. Bringing the U.K. closer to European defense, she said, is vital “not only to help Ukraine, but also to build Europe’s capacity at a time when the United States is reducing its investment in this continent.”
STOP MEDDLING, AMERICA: Metsola isn’t impressed by the U.S. National Security Strategy’s stated aim of tilting European politics in favor of MAGA priorities, including by supporting so-called patriotic parties. “I would like our citizens in all countries of the European Union to be able to decide freely and fairly, in free and fair elections,” she told Tim. “That means that if we see external interference or manipulation of voter behavior, then we have the tools to combat that.”
FAR-RIGHT FIREWALLS: Metsola’s European People’s Party sided with far-right groups last year to pass measures aimed at cutting red tape. With a midterm reorganization of the Parliament due by early 2027, will the far right gain key positions such as chairs of committees?
Not happening: “The cordon sanitaire is something for the groups to decide. You see how it works at the moment with the positions that are filled — and the groups will not change that, if you ask me,” Metsola said. “There are fundamental questions — whether it is on Ukraine, on rule of law, on democracy, and peace — that would create divisions and would not change.”
“I have been elected by the pro-European groups, and it is those pro-European majorities that are built from the center outwards [that have] been the most successful in the European Parliament, both in the previous mandate and in this one,” she added.
EYEING A THIRD TERM? Metsola’s own position as president is also up for re-election. She isn’t yet officially standing for an unprecedented third term, but many believe she will. “On myself, look, I work day by day,” she said. “I’ve learned not to speculate. I will not enter into speculations many months away. I have to do my job.”
Planning to walk away, then? “No, because I’ve been given … responsibility by my colleagues, and this ranges from … how to make sure that we do things correctly, how we do things fast, how we move forward as an institution, against a backdrop of all sorts of challenges. And as long as we’re doing that together, you know, I’m accountable to my members, and that’s what I do every day.”
ABORTION RIGHTS
CRUNCH TIME FOR THE RIGHT TO CHOOSE? It’s a long-awaited moment for women’s rights campaigners: The European Commission will today unveil its response to the “My Voice, My Choice” initiative, which calls for expanding access to abortion across the EU.
What’s at stake: The campaign began as a European Citizens’ Initiative (ECI) and proposes a voluntary, opt-in EU financial mechanism to support EU members providing abortions to women who can’t access them in their home countries and have to travel abroad.
Not familiar with ECIs? Once an initiative gathers a million verified signatures and after some procedural buildup, the Commission must publish a formal communication explaining what action — legislative, non-legislative or none at all — it intends to take.
That moment is now: At 3:45 p.m., Social Rights Commissioner Roxana Mînzatu and Equality Commissioner Hadja Lahbib will present the EU executive’s decision at a press conference, my colleague Claudia Chiappa reports. The campaign group will respond right after that in its own press conference.
What to expect: Two people familiar with the discussions say the most likely outcome is that the Commission will steer member states toward using existing EU funds rather than creating a new, dedicated financial instrument.
Will that satisfy campaigners? Unlikely. Supporters told Claudia that anything less than a clear political endorsement wouldn’t be enough. “Only a ‘yes’ will align with European values that are equality, democracy and fundamental rights,” said Renew MEP Abir Al-Sahlani. “A ‘no’ would mean aligning with the anti-gender movement.”
But critics say that if the Commission embraces the ECI proposal, it could encourage “abortion tourism” and intrude on countries’ right to set their own health policies. “If [people] wanted other laws, they would elect a different national parliament and government,” Europe of Sovereign Nations MEP Christine Anderson said. “What gives the EU Commission the right to tell, for example, the Polish people, ‘Look, we don’t care what you want, you will do as we say?’”
Don’t panic: Sensing uncertainty, campaigners have already launched a new petition. In a video posted Wednesday, Lahbib urged supporters to stay calm: “Be patient. Be confident. We are on it.”
ALSO ON THE COMMISSION’S AGENDA … Today’s College meeting will green-light a new EU roadmap on preventing and countering terrorism, along with a legislative proposal on firearms trafficking. Commissioners will also hold an orientation debate on the “28th regime” — the single EU-wide window for startups originally floated in Enrico Letta’s report and dubbed the “European Delaware.”
Letta told POLITICO’s Elena Giordano he’s hopeful that a workable plan emerges but warned it won’t be easy technically. “Expectations are very high,” he said. “There must be no frustration.”
INDUSTRY ACCELERATION ACT
REVVING UP: One item that should have been on today’s College agenda — but was pulled earlier this week — is the Industry Acceleration Act (IAA), Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s master plan to revive European industry. The proposal is also central to the Commission’s scramble to present a coherent competitiveness strategy ahead of the March 19–20 leaders’ summit.
Death by redrafting: An initial version of the policy sparked pushback from multiple Commission services last week, prompting a first postponement. The proposal was then pushed to this week’s College — but by Monday it had slipped to next week, a stop-start pattern that has begun to look endless.
Less bleak this week: EU officials speaking to POLITICO journalists insist progress is being made, noting the number of services opposing the master plan has shrunk. But at least three of them still hold reservations, particularly on the Made in EU component.
Chefs in the kitchen: Today’s “special chefs” meeting — the agenda-setting gathering of senior Cabinet members, the Legal Service and the Secretariat-General — will be decisive. Last Friday’s equivalent meeting was abruptly canceled just minutes before kickoff, with one Commission official pointing to unresolved IAA tensions. If the policy clears this hurdle, it will face Monday’s “hebdo,” the regular conclave of Commission cabinet heads.
Made in EU fault line: The so-called European preference at the heart of the plan has triggered resistance inside the Commission and beyond. Even third countries with close trade ties to the EU (we’re hearing Switzerland, Turkey, and some of the G7) don’t seem particularly happy about it.
Key questions remain unresolved: Which sectors would fall under European preference? Which non-EU countries could qualify as “trusted partners” brought into the market’s tent? And how far would its geographical scope extend?
Credibility on the line: March 4 is still the target. EU officials say that failing to table the proposal next week would amount to a loss of face. A fresh draft seems to have been circulating yesterday, incorporating amendments aimed at addressing legal and trade concerns. That was seen internally as movement in the right direction, although not yet enough for a breakthrough.
COMPET for attention: All this unfolds as EU ministers responsible for industry meet in Brussels today. Should we expect fireworks? Or, at least, some constructive contributions that may unlock the IAA file?
Yes and no: The Commission’s Made in EU push is not formally on the ministers’ agenda, given the delay in the presentation of the proposal, POLITICO’S Aude van den Hove says. But expect it to surface anyway. With the bloc’s industry chief Stéphane Séjourné — the plan’s chief political sponsor — in the room, the debate over Europe’s industrial assertiveness is unlikely to remain off the table.
IN OTHER NEWS
YOU GO FIRST: Senior advisers to Donald Trump are arguing that American voters are more likely to accept an attack on Iran if Israel strikes before the U.S., my Stateside colleagues scooped. Meanwhile, Pentagon officials and American lawmakers are warning that a prolonged military conflict with Iran could make the U.S. vulnerable by depleting its military stockpiles.
EU PROSECUTOR GUILTY: The Bulgarian member of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) has been found guilty of serious misconduct, according to a statement.
BOARD OF DISQUIET: Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Šuica defended her attendance at Donald Trump’s Board of Peace in an appearance before the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee Wednesday, telling MEPs: “Europe cannot go it alone. “It’s not only about Gaza; it’s also about trade, tariffs and broader relations. We have to be very smart in how we deal with this.”
But that defense did little to pacify Šuica’s critics, with lawmakers from across the political spectrum questioning her trip to Washington, Milena Wälde reports. Socialists and Democrats MEP Yannis Maniatis called it a “monumental mistake” and said it lent legitimacy to an event that was “an affront to international law.”
MERCOSUR HITS THE GAS: The Argentinian Senate reshuffled its agenda this week to ratify the EU-Mercosur agreement, according to the latest schedule spotted by POLITICO’s Camille Gijs. If the EU trade deal with South American countries is approved in today’s sitting, Argentina will have completed its internal procedures. Uruguay is on a similar track.
Ball in EU’s court: The parliamentary votes shift the spotlight onto the European Commission, which has to decide whether to trigger the deal’s provisional application given the pushback it has received from some national capitals and the Parliament’s request for a lengthy legal review.
CALL FOR MANDY PROBE: A group of EU law professors has formally urged Ursula von der Leyen to open an immediate inquiry into former Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson following his arrest in the U.K. this week over alleged misconduct in public office linked to Jeffrey Epstein. Mandelson, who has not been charged, has previously said none of the Epstein emails released by the U.S. Department of Justice “indicate wrongdoing or misdemeanor on my part” and has apologized “unequivocally” for his association with Epstein.
CONFIRMED: Iceland will hold a referendum in “the next few months” on whether to open accession talks with the EU, Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir announced at a press conference in Warsaw — a development our Chief EU Correspondent Zoya Sheftalovich reported was being considered earlier this week.
AGENDA
— General Affairs Council (Cohesion). Arrivals and doorsteps at 8:30 a.m. … press conference at 12:45 p.m. Watch.
— Competitiveness Council (Internal Affairs and Industry). Arrivals and doorsteps at 8:30 a.m. … press conference at 5:15 p.m. Watch.
— Informal health ministers’ meeting in Nicosia, Cyprus.
— Eastern Border Regions conference starts at 2:30 p.m. Opening speeches by Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė; Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa; Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal; Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan; European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen; Commission Executive Vice President Raffaele Fitto; and European Investment Bank President Nadia Calviño. Details. Watch.
— GOVSATCOM 2026 Conference on Defense & Security in Luxembourg. Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken and Luxembourg Defense Minister Yuriko Backes give speeches. Agenda. Watch.
— EU-Angola ministerial meeting.
— European Council President António Costa meets International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol … meets Baltic Prime Ministers Ruginienė, Siliņa and Michal.
— Ursula von der Leyen meets Baltic Prime Ministers Ruginienė, Siliņa and Michal … meets Romanian Prime Minister Bolojan.
— German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is in China visiting the Mercedes-Benz Group and Unitree.
BRUSSELS CORNER
WEATHER: Sunny, high of 17C.
SUSPICIOUS LETTER INTERCEPTED: An envelope addressed to the U.S. embassy in Belgium containing powder was intercepted at a Zaventem depot Wednesday, broadcaster VRT reports. It wasn’t clear who sent the letter or the nature of the substance it contained. Civil protection officers are analyzing its contents.
POLLEN BOMB, RECORD TEMPERATURE: Wednesday was the hottest Feb. 25 recorded in Brussels, with temperatures in Uccle reaching 19.8C, according to weather forecaster David Dehenauw. But be warned: Belgium is also going through a peak in pollen levels, broadcaster RTBF writes.
BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Irena Joveva, Alvise Pérez and Marta Wcisło; former MEPs Petros Kokkalis and Evžen Tošenovský; EESC’s Luc Hendrickx; European Commission’s Thibaud Delourme; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; former Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoğlu; David Beasley, former executive director of the U.N. World Food Program.
THANKS TO: Jacopo Barigazzi, Nicholas Vinocur, Gabriel Gavin, Seb Starcevic, Zia Weise, Hanne Cokelaere, Playbook editors Alex Spence and James Panichi, reporter Ketrin Jochecová and producer Dean Southwell.
**A message from the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion: The European Employment and Social Forum is back. This year’s edition will address the EU’s response to the challenges many people face today: the rising cost of living, job insecurity, and changes in the labour market. Opinion leaders, policymakers, businesses, academics and civil society will be invited to explore bold ideas to support Europe’s greatest strength: its people. Across two days, expect high-level discussions and working-level exchanges on quality jobs, fair labour mobility, poverty and the cost of living. Join us online on 3–4 March.**
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