Iran’s top-priority targets in the event of a war with the US will be Israel, as well as America’s military bases in the Middle East, according to an analysis from the Alma Research and Education Center published on Wednesday.
Although Israel may not be directly involved in carrying out US military strikes against the Iranian regime, it is likely that Iran may directly attack Israel using missiles and UAVs, according to Alma’s analysis.
Iran’s terror proxies in the region, such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, may additionally be mobilized in regime retaliation efforts. Alma predicted that if Iranian proxies do participate, Hezbollah will most likely play the largest role.
Alma noted that Iran may seek to strike Israeli military sites, critical civilian infrastructure, airports, and central cities, similar to locations targeted by the regime during the 12-day war in June.
Along with direct military action, Iran and its proxies may also attempt to mobilize terrorist attacks or sabotage activity within Israel in retaliation for US strikes.
The operational contribution of such indirect methods may be minimal, but could undermine the Israeli population’s sense of personal security and “demonstrate penetration into the heart of the population,” Alma stated.
Iranian attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets across the world are also “on the table” for the regime, Alma asserted. Embassies and institutions identified as having ties to Israel or Jewish communities, as well as diplomats and their families, may be at risk of being harmed.
Iran may strike target US military bases
Additional targets Iran may prioritize striking include military bases across the Middle East.
Specifically, Alma named US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates as high-priority targets because they serve as critical refueling and repair locations for US and US-allied military aircraft.
The report also noted that American forces deployed in Iraq could be targeted by local Shiite militias operating as Iranian proxies. This would raise the cost of the US presence in the region and potentially cause internal political pressure to reduce overall involvement in the Middle East.
The US naval presence in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea may also be a target, according to Alma. Per the report, Iran may use a combination of anti-ship missiles, UAVs, and naval tactics to fight the US at sea.
Additionally, Alma predicted that Iran could enact cyberattacks aimed at inflicting economic harm and eroding public confidence. Such attacks may target power grids, financial institutions, and civilian systems.
The regime may simultaneously attempt to spread disinformation as a means of carrying out perception-shaping campaigns “seeking to heighten feelings of insecurity, exacerbate internal divisions, depict the United States as unstable, and undermine the legitimacy of its offensive actions.”
Russia and China, two of Tehran’s closest allies, may align themselves with an Iranian cyberwarfare campaign, according to Alma. The two countries could extend support in the areas of cyber operations, perception-based warfare, intelligence, and diplomacy.