Norway would face shortages of food and fuel within only a few days in the event of a major conflict in Norway and the surrounding region, according to a new report by the Norwegian Defence Research Institute.
The report, commissioned by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries, found that Norway was vulnerable due to its heavy dependence on food imports and foreign agricultural labour, and due to its limited refining capacity.
Norway’s sole refinery at Mongstad does not produce enough diesel, marine gas oil (MGO) and jet fuel to meet the country’s needs, meaning fuel shortages could potentially arise within days of war breaking out.
“A more insecure world means that we need more knowledge about how we can best respond if a serious crisis or war occurs,” Norway’s Trade and Industry minister, Cecilie Myrseth, said in a press statement.
The report is based on a scenario where Russia invades one of the Baltic states, triggering Nato’s Article 5, bringing Norway into the conflict. Russia then mounts attacks on border areas in Finland, limited attacks on Northern Norway, and targeted physical and cyber attacks on infrastructure in the rest of the country.
“As the situation escalates, military consumption of fuel and transport capacity increases sharply, while civilian society faces greater needs related to transport, backup power and critical infrastructure,” the report reads. “Hoarding and regional demand shocks are leading to acute shortages of food and fuel (primarily diesel) in stores and gas stations.”
If combined with a power failure, the report warns increased military activity could “quickly empty fuel stocks and thus paralyse critical societal functions with only 72 hours of readiness”.
It would take longer for Norway to run short of food, although the report warns that “acute shortages” of food could also occur very quickly at shops and gas stations if the population panics and begins to hoard food, or if power failures knocked out the so-called “cold chain” of refrigerated transport and storage.
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In the event of a Russian attack on the Baltics and on Finland, Norway would become a critical transit nation for allied forces moving into the Nordic region, which would put pressure on Norwegian ports, transport infrastructure, and supply lines.
Foreign workers would be likely to return to the relative safety of their home countries, while many Norwegian workers would be called up to take part in military and civil defence, exacerbating staffing shortages.
At the same time, disruption to international trade could create “acute holes in Norway’s import streams” for essential items like fertiliser ingredients, technical components, and fuel additives.
The report said that the rapid electrification of Norwegian society in recent years had made it more vulnerable, with critical functions such as food processing, cooling, water systems, payment systems, fuel pumps and logistics now dependent on power supplies and also connected to the internet, making them vulnerable to cyber attacks.
The war in Ukraine, the report said, had shown that the power supply system was now a priority target in armed conflicts.
The report warns of the risk of “cascade effects”, where the failure in one sector quickly leads to failures in other sectors.
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What can be done about it?
The report recommends 15 measures Norway could take to reduce its vulnerability, ranking them on three levels of priority based on cost and impact.
The top priority actions were to:
- establish and fill a regional stockpile in Northern Norway which includes fuel, especially aviation fuel and diesel, and both ready-to-eat food and raw materials for food production such as grain.
- create a national reserve for critical inputs to food production, such as seeds, fertiliser ingredients, packaging, and also of fuel additives
- install backup power (generators), rapid repair capacity, and a robust system of transition to alternative energy sources at critical nodes in the power infrastructure
- protect IT and operational technology systems to prevent digital sabotage from paralyzing physical production or distribution
- establish clear criteria for which civilian and military functions take priority during shortages of energy, fuel, transport, and inputs
- identify critical personnel who might be claimed by both civilian and military sectors