2026 will be a year of difficult adjustments rather than accelerated growth, and Romania enters this period with a more fragile consumer than the European average. At the same time, digital payments remain one of the few areas with clear structural growth potential, even in a challenging macroeconomic environment, as Adolfo Laurenti, Principal European Economist at Visa.
At the European level, Visa data point to a consumer in a state of relative stability: spending is no longer contracting sharply, but neither is it entering a phase of visible acceleration. Romania, however, follows a different trajectory. According to the Visa Spending Momentum Index, spending momentum has stalled, reflecting the combined impact of high inflation, falling real incomes and a sharp deterioration in consumer confidence.
One of the most relevant signals in Visa’s data on Romania is the stronger momentum of credit‑based spending compared with spending funded from current income (debit).
This trend points to:
- the use of credit to cover essential expenses (food, utilities, recurring services);
- a behaviour focused on adapting to income pressure (consumption smoothing);
- a defensive use of credit, rather than a revival in consumption.
The fact that debit payments remain under pressure reflects the compression of disposable incomes, not a disengagement from electronic payments.
“The rise in credit at this stage should not be interpreted as a sign of economic recovery. It primarily reflects a mechanism to absorb the shock to real incomes. This context calls for close monitoring of risks and a focus on responsible products, such as short‑term credit and instalment‑based payment solutions for essential spending,” said Adolfo Laurenti.
Collapsing confidence reshapes consumption patterns
The sharp deterioration in consumer confidence amplifies macroeconomic weakness. Consumers are not only financially constrained, but also far more cautious in their spending decisions.
This caution is reflected in:
- a shift towards essential goods and services;
- smaller‑value but more frequent transactions;
- the postponement of discretionary spending and big‑ticket purchases.
In this context, the number of transactions holds up better than the total value of consumption, although overall growth remains weak and fragile.
„ At this point, the main constraint is not just inflation, but confidence. Without a stabilisation of expectations regarding future incomes, consumer behaviour will remain cautious,” said Adolfo Laurenti.
Why the recovery of debit payments is critical
From an economic perspective, a sustained recovery in debit payments will be the first credible signal that the consumer recession is starting to ease.
Typically, the adjustment process follows a clear sequence:
- stabilisation of real incomes;
- recovery in spending funded from current income (debit);
- normalisation of credit use;
- a gradual rebound in discretionary spending.
Romania is currently in the early stages of this process, in a context characterised by limited fiscal space.
The digitalisation of payments remains a structural trend
Despite the consumer recession, the shift towards digital payments has been maintained:
- contactless payments continue to grow;
- e‑commerce maintains solid momentum;
- cash usage is gradually declining.
This evolution is supported by structural factors—such as merchant digitalisation, the need for operational efficiency and mobile‑first consumer behaviour—rather than by the economic cycle.
2026 – a transition year for the payments market
The first half of 2026 is likely to remain under pressure. However, the disinflation expected in the second half of the year could create the conditions for:
- stabilisation of real incomes;
- a gradual recovery in debit payments;
- a progressive rebound in payment volumes.
From a strategic perspective, 2026 will be a year of adjustment, while 2027 could mark the resumption of more visible structural growth, with GDP growth around 2.8%.
“Romania’s payments market reflects both the fragility of consumption and the resilience of the digitalisation process. Credit is playing a defensive role, and a durable recovery will depend on the stabilisation of real incomes and consumer confidence, not on a rapid expansion of credit” – Adolfo Laurenti, Principal European Economist at Visa
Adolfo Laurenti joined Visa in April 2018 as Chief Economist for Europe. Previously, he served as Global Economist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin in Zurich and as International Chief Economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago, where he analysed macroeconomic developments and provided strategic investment guidance. He is a former co‑chair of the International Committee of the National Association for Business Economics and a regular guest lecturer at the Kiel Institute’s International Business Cycle Conferences and at Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism.