Russia is strengthening military units along the NATO border, drawing on combat experience in Ukraine and viewing such formations as potential strongpoints in a possible conflict with the Alliance after the war ends.
According to the annual threat assessment for Lithuania’s security, published by Lithuanian intelligence, the information was passed on to the relevant structural units. The report also states that in the absence of sanctions, Russia could be ready for a large-scale military conflict with NATO within the next six years.
“Russia is likely to build not only a 30-50% larger army than it had before the war, but also relatively modern. Strategic stockpiles of weapons and ammunition will be fully replenished. Russia will be ready for a conventional military conflict with NATO”
– Lithuanian intelligence report
Context and Aims of Russia
The document states that Russia’s main goals are to tilt the balance of power in Europe in Moscow’s favor and to fully conquer Ukraine. It also notes that the Russian defense industry has expanded with China’s support, enabling it to reduce dependence on Western technologies. After the war, the surplus of arms could have global security implications.
The material also mentions that a series of disruptions to gas pipelines, electrical networks, and telecommunications lines in the Baltic Sea since 2023, though attributed to actions of ships leaving Russian ports, is not regarded as an intentional act. Details of the conclusions are not provided.
In response to journalists’ questions about the damage to the pipeline and cables, Mindaugas Mazonas, head of Lithuania’s military intelligence, replied:
“The investigation was not conducted by our intelligence service, but we have an answer that this was an unintentional incident”
– Mindaugas Mazonas, head of Lithuania’s military intelligence
According to previous assessments, since February 2022 Europe has recorded 151 cases of sabotage, arson, bombings, attempted bombings, and other hybrid attacks linked to Russia. Such incidents underscore the urgency of strengthening security in the region and the need for vigilant monitoring by allies.