Soon after the first bombs fell on Iran – igniting a conflict that within hours had regional dimensions – Kosovo authorities rushed to side with the United States, condemning the Iranian regime and reaffirming their support for the Western alliance. President Vjosa Osmani said that, thanks to the leadership of the United States and President Donald Trump, the time of freedom for the people of Iran is coming. In a reaction in X, she added that Kosovo will continue to support the actions taken by the United States and other allies to end the Iranian regime, while strongly condemning the latter’s attacks against allies in the Middle East. The United States and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran on February 28, with the aim of curbing the country’s nuclear program. In response, Iran and its proxies are striking targets in US allies – from Saudi Arabia to Cyprus – despite Trump’s warnings against retaliation.
“They better not do this, because if they do, we will hit them with a force like never before seen,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Hours after the attacks began, Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti convened the Security Council to discuss the situation, and said Kosovo was closely monitoring the potential implications for the country and the region.
His government did not respond to RFE/RL about the possible implications or concrete measures that could be taken. Similarly, neither the Presidency, nor the Ministry of Internal Affairs, nor the Kosovo Police, nor the US State Department provided any comment. Kosovo is home to Camp Bondsteel – the largest US military base in the Balkans – and about 600 US soldiers, who serve as part of the NATO peacekeeping mission, KFOR. In a response to RFE/RL, a NATO official said that KFOR continues to fulfill its mandate to ensure a peaceful and secure environment for all citizens of Kosovo. “KFOR’s strength and posture are reviewed and adjusted from time to time, according to developments in the situation, so that the mission remains effective for its purpose. Currently, no significant changes are being considered,” the NATO official said.
Iran and its proxies attacked several bases and missions of the United States and its allies in the Middle East. A British base in Cyprus was also targeted by drone attacks. Cypriot authorities said that, according to initial assessments, the drones were launched by Hezbollah – a militant group backed by Iran – from Lebanese territory.
The incident prompted an immediate European response: several countries sent fighter jets and frigates to Cyprus to bolster the Mediterranean island’s air and naval defenses, amid fears of a further escalation of the conflict. When it comes to Kosovo, former senior NATO official Jamie Shea argues that, although Camp Bondsteel is a major American installation, it is unlikely to be a priority target for Tehran. This is because Bondsteel is not an air base and is not used to support current US operations against Iran. “Iran has a limited number of ballistic missiles at its disposal, as I understand it. Given that the United States and Israel are targeting their launch sites, Iran needs to use them wisely to achieve maximum effect,” Shea told Radio Free Europe’s Expose program.
According to the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Iran has the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. Its arsenal includes long-range missiles that can reach Israel, Kh-55 cruise missiles with a range of up to 3.000 km, and Shahed drones, which are believed to have struck a British base in Cyprus and have a range of up to 2.500 km.
This means that, if launched by Iran, the Balkans remain out of range of this arsenal. Former US military commander in Europe, Ben Hodges, warns that within range of potential threats could be the US Navy base in Crete, Greece. He considers it an important target in Europe also because of its logistical role in the region. Hodges does not mention specific missile or drone threats to Bondsteel, but emphasizes that the base should always be treated as under potential risk.
“I would always assume that there is a threat, especially if there are terrorist organizations or individuals who might feel angered by the attacks on Iran or the assassination of the Ayatollah, and decide to act on their own. Therefore, even at Camp Bondsteel, security measures must be maintained and this possibility must always be calculated,” Hodges tells Expose.
Shea emphasizes that for Europe, including Kosovo, the most likely threats from Iranian or Iranian-inspired actions are terrorist attacks, cyberattacks, and attacks by individuals known as “lone wolves” – people inspired by an ideology or group, but who act independently. “Many Kosovars joined the Islamic State during the time of the caliphate; some of them may have returned to the country, some may still remain radicalized. This means that there may be some ‘pockets’ of radicalization. And I’m not just talking about Kosovo, because a similar situation may also appear in other countries in Europe, within Muslim communities,” Shea estimates.
He warns that the conflict could also lead to higher oil and gas prices, higher inflation and a major global recession. The consequences will be particularly severe for Kosovo and the Western Balkans as a whole – a region he describes as economically fragile and dependent on foreign investment. And, in addition, General Hodges shares another concern – the safety of European citizens, including Kosovars, stranded in the Gulf and Middle East.
“If there are hundreds of thousands of Europeans stranded in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar or similar countries because the airlines have stopped, then I can understand why the French government might feel the need to send its own force to protect them,” says Hodges. French President Emmanuel Macron announced this week that his country would send the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Mediterranean and that it would work to form a coalition to protect maritime traffic, which is threatened by the escalating crisis in the Middle East.
In the context of security measures for Kosovo, Shea suggests that authorities strengthen border control, monitor potentially radicalized individuals, increase security around US and KFOR facilities, and strengthen operational and intelligence cooperation with NATO and the United States. “Of course, there is also a NATO reserve force that can be deployed if the situation requires it. But, for now, it is about routine preventive measures. Security has to be adjusted according to threat assessments. You should not underreact, but you should not overreact,” says Shea. With each passing day that the war continues, the risks become increasingly unpredictable. Hodges says that Washington has never clearly defined what it wants Iran to look like when the war is over – which, he says, makes the conflict more difficult to end. He also warns of the strain on US military reserves and overall deterrence capacity.
“The longer the conflict goes on, the more the US’s ability to provide enough ammunition is tested. This is not only related to current operations, but also to maintaining deterrence capabilities against China. I am sure that there is a lot of pressure on the industry to increase production. But these are not simple products – these are very sophisticated weapons that are expensive and take time to produce. You can’t immediately triple or quadruple the production of Patriot interceptors, HIMARS systems or Tomahawk missiles,” says Hodges.
President Trump said on March 4 that U.S. forces are in a very strong position in Iran. According to him, they have made great progress, “even though the war has been going on for less than a week.” And, perhaps, the most important factor for this is “the rebuilding of the military during my first term,” Trump said. In the Balkans, the Ministry of Security of Bosnia and Herzegovina increased security measures to a higher level, due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, while the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, compared the U.S. attack on Iran to the NATO air campaign against the former Yugoslavia. In the words of Jamie Shea, this is simply a “completely false analogy” and repeated rhetoric by Serbia, which also has the support of Iran in opposing Kosovo’s independence. Iran, with a population of over 91 million inhabitants, does not recognize Kosovo as a state and does not have formal diplomatic relations with the country. /REL
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