
The 2026 Middle East War is likely to be the last in human history where a disruption to fossil fuels means a major global economic impact. By the 2030s, both China and Europe will be well on their way to totally decarbonising their economies, and Chinese manufacturing exports of renewable tech will be doing the same for much of the rest of the world. The age of fossil fuels will be disappearing in the rear-view mirror.
The longer the war goes on, the more renewables win. It will be clear they mean cheap, reliable, clean, and freedom from global instability. Tens of millions of people around the world who have cars to buy in 2026 will be looking at EVs with new appreciation.
In 2025, for the first time, solar and wind produced more electricity than fossil fuels in the European Union. The bloc's goal to reduce fossil fuel use by 90% by 2040 seems on track.
byu/lughnasadh inFuturology
5 Comments
Don’t forget India, they are also building electro tech factories.
It’s not in track. The goal of reducing fossil fuel by 90% is regarding ALL fossil fuel, not just electricity. Electricity is about 1/3rd of total fossil fuel usage. At current growth pacing ans assuming growth doesn’t stagnate, we won’t reach that target before 2060. That also doesn’t take into account the increase of energy demand.
We will be at a point where we will have to replace old solar panels ans wind turbines before reaching that goal, which will eventually hit growth.
So thank you Russian War for making EU better. Russian get kick in the face for starting a war.
China is the world’s largest importer of oil. They are also the world’s largest importer (and largest producer) or coal. They are absolutely not on track to decarbonizing their economy.
But US oil consumption is decreasing, and US carbon emissions have been dropping for more than two decades. And the US is a net oil exporter, so you are correct that at least the US is increasingly insulated from future oil shocks.
For once I feel lucky that I chosed to work in (European) Railways. Maybe with our 13802th fuel shortage impacting commuters & freight carriers pocket, they will learn that trains are THE solution.
Guessing EV owners must be feeling pretty smug right now too.