what’s that joke?… Iran could do the funniest thing ever right now?
DegenNabalu on
Omg wtf
BeebleBoxn on
Polymarket can’t even decide whether it’s powered by Chainlink or Polygon.
Much-Possibility6336 on
Who is pushing this guy everywhere? And how much does that cost?
MaximumStudent1839 on
Honestly, I don’t get the hype about prediction markets.
In theory, these markets are only predictive if you allow rampant insider trading. Insiders are the real alpha generators on the info side. Your prediction market is useless if it is a bunch of average bozos randomly throwing darts.
But if you allow rampant insider trading, then these markets can’t be liquid, i.e., fewer participants want to trade knowing they are set up to lose. A good example is how rugs/bundling at the pump fun killed the trenches. But without enough liquid rewards, insiders may not find it worthwhile to reveal the information.
Take, for example, someone at the White House knew about the upcoming assassination. Say the odds of the regime going down was 10%. If the market isn’t liquid, the insider may not want to push the odds higher, increasing the outcome as more predictive. Instead, the insider can withhold the info and bet on oil.
7 Comments
I fucking hate these prediction markets.
World is collapsing and betters having fun
what’s that joke?… Iran could do the funniest thing ever right now?
Omg wtf
Polymarket can’t even decide whether it’s powered by Chainlink or Polygon.
Who is pushing this guy everywhere? And how much does that cost?
Honestly, I don’t get the hype about prediction markets.
In theory, these markets are only predictive if you allow rampant insider trading. Insiders are the real alpha generators on the info side. Your prediction market is useless if it is a bunch of average bozos randomly throwing darts.
But if you allow rampant insider trading, then these markets can’t be liquid, i.e., fewer participants want to trade knowing they are set up to lose. A good example is how rugs/bundling at the pump fun killed the trenches. But without enough liquid rewards, insiders may not find it worthwhile to reveal the information.
Take, for example, someone at the White House knew about the upcoming assassination. Say the odds of the regime going down was 10%. If the market isn’t liquid, the insider may not want to push the odds higher, increasing the outcome as more predictive. Instead, the insider can withhold the info and bet on oil.