In this analysis, CNN’s Chief Security Correspondent Nick Patton Walsh shows how US President Donald Trump has, despite his increasingly loud declarations, decidedly *not* won the war in Iran, and may in fact be stuck there for some time against his own volition. Walsh states Trump has fallen for “the oldest trap of modern warfare – believing a swift, surgical military operation will yield quick, enduring political results.” And the longer this “surgical military operation” continues, he argues, the worse the outcomes will be for the USA, the US military, and for Trump’s political ambitions.
He also argues Trump has made a significant tactical blunder by publically and repeatedly claiming victory, exposing how desperately he wants the war to end and giving an upper-hand to Iran as a result.
IHerebyDemandtoPost on
Trump has lost control of this war. Iran is fighting neither on Trump‘s terms nor his timeline. He thought so little of them, he didn’t even conceive of this possibility.
myphriendmike on
This just screams of media negativity pushing a narrative. Iran is crushed. They have exactly one card to play and the longer they do the more pissed off the other players will get. Sure they’ll be mad at Trump for starting it, but they’ll put down Iran just to be rid of the turmoil.
justlurkshere on
The theme here is consistent with a lot of activities by Trump and the people he puts into positions.
– They expect to be able to act unilaterally.
– When the party they attack starts to respond Trump & co always seem like they are completly caught off guard, it’s the bully response when the victim punches back.
– There is no depth to planning, everything is seen as a single action that will fix any complex issue.
– When the plan goes wrong the only continuity is to start pushing blatant lies.
You see the same in the Iran mess now that you see on even tiny issues domestically.
maru_tyo on
The problem is that we live in a post-truth world.
If Trump declares victory, there are enough people who accept this as the truth and give him what he wants.
As we have seen in the past, even if people who are actively involved and contradict anything Trump says, they will be dismissed as “fake”, “radical” or in some other way discredited.
So whether Trump “wins” this war or not is completely irrelevant except for the people in Iran, the US and the western world will just accept a new status quo and go on.
The only exception I can see is if this war collapses the world economy completely somehow. Even lasting price increases will just be accepted, as we have accepted rising prices for the last few decades.
ChZakalwe on
China is so happy watching Afghanistan and Iraq 2, electrix boogaloo.
Though i waill say, watching the US munition burn rate without being able to reppace has been incredibly illuminating.
If i was Taiwan, i’d be sprinting fir some kind of MAD donctrine agaisnt china. The US wont be able to respond even if they wanted to.
Additional-Library55 on
The problem is in the maximalist definition of goals. Trump, in some sense like Putin, ~~defined~~ envisioned maximalist goal of **complete capitulation** of IRGC. Which obviously didn’t happen. Merely by surviving IRGC is denying him this win.
Why did he want this maximalist goal and why didn’t he think of 2nd order and 3rd order effects – because he acts on gut feel and not expert analysis and he has surrounded himself with radical secretaries, advisors and allies. Wonder how much of it is driven by his / MAGA’s ego and pride in American exceptionalism and desire to leave a bigger legacy than Obama
SirBulbasaur13 on
Sure he can. He can just say “we done, we win” and pack it up.
It might not be true or palatable for Americans but he *could* end it just like that.
FriedRiceistheBest on
Americans got what they voted for and now the rest of the world is paying the price.
DookyDuke on
Aipac will tell him when he can leave
crujiente69 on
This is the opinion of the same cnn covering for the attempted terrorists not a week ago?
TakayamaYoshi on
Even if Trump single-sidedly “claims” victory and leaves Iran, it doesn’t mean Iran will just automatically open up the Strait of Hormuz. They didn’t do that even under heavy boming; why would do they open if US withdraws? Basically Iran decided to bring down the world economy regardless of US withdraws or not, and there is nothing US can do about it unless a ground invasion.
In simple term, US is now stuck.
Rejnavick on
Well yeah, you started a war… You can’t just back out you started a war…. Are they idiots? Oh wait…
Hytsol on
I’m waiting for the war and oil crisis to turn the pumps back on green energy and EVs and climate resiliency
DefTheOcelot on
“Trump can’t leave this war he started entirely undemocratically, he wouldnt have the support!”
It feels like some people are truly still stuck in 2010 and just have not picked up on how broken and sick many world democracies have become. Yes, he can end it as easily as he started it. At this point, nothing he does is defensible or has justification, he just does whatever he feels like.
KopOut on
I don’t think he will be able to. All he can do is stop the US actions. I have a feeling Iran is not going to stop. Their (the regime’s) survival now sort of hinges on them not stopping.
I don’t expect a lot of direct action against the US, but I bet they now take complete control of the strait of Hormuz and continue lobbing missiles at their Middle East neighbors to get them to act and to cause as much havoc as possible in the region for the US and Israel.
It’s starting to look like these attacks could end up making Israel’s situation worse, and it’s pretty clear the only reason Trump attacked was because that was what Netanyahu wanted and Trump and Hegseth thought it would be an alpha move.
roehnin on
Trump is too stupid to realise the other player also gets to take a turn.
He thinks he can just act unilaterally and everyone will go along with it.
His military adviser should have told him the old trope, “Red also gets a vote.”
Parmeniscus on
The enemy gets a vote.
manniesalado on
Trump, you’ve lost. You bet big and you busted. So send Little Marco to Iran and accept whatever terms Tehran demands for peace. There is no other option. Trump holds no cards.
19 Comments
In this analysis, CNN’s Chief Security Correspondent Nick Patton Walsh shows how US President Donald Trump has, despite his increasingly loud declarations, decidedly *not* won the war in Iran, and may in fact be stuck there for some time against his own volition. Walsh states Trump has fallen for “the oldest trap of modern warfare – believing a swift, surgical military operation will yield quick, enduring political results.” And the longer this “surgical military operation” continues, he argues, the worse the outcomes will be for the USA, the US military, and for Trump’s political ambitions.
He also argues Trump has made a significant tactical blunder by publically and repeatedly claiming victory, exposing how desperately he wants the war to end and giving an upper-hand to Iran as a result.
Trump has lost control of this war. Iran is fighting neither on Trump‘s terms nor his timeline. He thought so little of them, he didn’t even conceive of this possibility.
This just screams of media negativity pushing a narrative. Iran is crushed. They have exactly one card to play and the longer they do the more pissed off the other players will get. Sure they’ll be mad at Trump for starting it, but they’ll put down Iran just to be rid of the turmoil.
The theme here is consistent with a lot of activities by Trump and the people he puts into positions.
– They expect to be able to act unilaterally.
– When the party they attack starts to respond Trump & co always seem like they are completly caught off guard, it’s the bully response when the victim punches back.
– There is no depth to planning, everything is seen as a single action that will fix any complex issue.
– When the plan goes wrong the only continuity is to start pushing blatant lies.
You see the same in the Iran mess now that you see on even tiny issues domestically.
The problem is that we live in a post-truth world.
If Trump declares victory, there are enough people who accept this as the truth and give him what he wants.
As we have seen in the past, even if people who are actively involved and contradict anything Trump says, they will be dismissed as “fake”, “radical” or in some other way discredited.
So whether Trump “wins” this war or not is completely irrelevant except for the people in Iran, the US and the western world will just accept a new status quo and go on.
The only exception I can see is if this war collapses the world economy completely somehow. Even lasting price increases will just be accepted, as we have accepted rising prices for the last few decades.
China is so happy watching Afghanistan and Iraq 2, electrix boogaloo.
Though i waill say, watching the US munition burn rate without being able to reppace has been incredibly illuminating.
If i was Taiwan, i’d be sprinting fir some kind of MAD donctrine agaisnt china. The US wont be able to respond even if they wanted to.
The problem is in the maximalist definition of goals. Trump, in some sense like Putin, ~~defined~~ envisioned maximalist goal of **complete capitulation** of IRGC. Which obviously didn’t happen. Merely by surviving IRGC is denying him this win.
Steve witkoff himself said it a week before war that Trump was curious that why Iran hasn’t capitulated completely yet https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn5gk15rr70o
Why did he want this maximalist goal and why didn’t he think of 2nd order and 3rd order effects – because he acts on gut feel and not expert analysis and he has surrounded himself with radical secretaries, advisors and allies. Wonder how much of it is driven by his / MAGA’s ego and pride in American exceptionalism and desire to leave a bigger legacy than Obama
Sure he can. He can just say “we done, we win” and pack it up.
It might not be true or palatable for Americans but he *could* end it just like that.
Americans got what they voted for and now the rest of the world is paying the price.
Aipac will tell him when he can leave
This is the opinion of the same cnn covering for the attempted terrorists not a week ago?
Even if Trump single-sidedly “claims” victory and leaves Iran, it doesn’t mean Iran will just automatically open up the Strait of Hormuz. They didn’t do that even under heavy boming; why would do they open if US withdraws? Basically Iran decided to bring down the world economy regardless of US withdraws or not, and there is nothing US can do about it unless a ground invasion.
In simple term, US is now stuck.
Well yeah, you started a war… You can’t just back out you started a war…. Are they idiots? Oh wait…
I’m waiting for the war and oil crisis to turn the pumps back on green energy and EVs and climate resiliency
“Trump can’t leave this war he started entirely undemocratically, he wouldnt have the support!”
It feels like some people are truly still stuck in 2010 and just have not picked up on how broken and sick many world democracies have become. Yes, he can end it as easily as he started it. At this point, nothing he does is defensible or has justification, he just does whatever he feels like.
I don’t think he will be able to. All he can do is stop the US actions. I have a feeling Iran is not going to stop. Their (the regime’s) survival now sort of hinges on them not stopping.
I don’t expect a lot of direct action against the US, but I bet they now take complete control of the strait of Hormuz and continue lobbing missiles at their Middle East neighbors to get them to act and to cause as much havoc as possible in the region for the US and Israel.
It’s starting to look like these attacks could end up making Israel’s situation worse, and it’s pretty clear the only reason Trump attacked was because that was what Netanyahu wanted and Trump and Hegseth thought it would be an alpha move.
Trump is too stupid to realise the other player also gets to take a turn.
He thinks he can just act unilaterally and everyone will go along with it.
His military adviser should have told him the old trope, “Red also gets a vote.”
The enemy gets a vote.
Trump, you’ve lost. You bet big and you busted. So send Little Marco to Iran and accept whatever terms Tehran demands for peace. There is no other option. Trump holds no cards.