Trump is losing control in the Gulf. A terrifying scenario could now play out
Trump is losing control in the Gulf. A terrifying scenario could now play out
Trump is losing control in the Gulf. A terrifying scenario could now play out
Trump is losing control in the Gulf. A terrifying scenario could now play out
13 Comments
quit giving the experts any credence, thewar dribbles down to a peacekeeping mission in 3,2,1… days, air superiority is a thing after all, in a month will be down to the odd drone getting to its target. That is winning in this war. EU can eat the new oil price, thnx for showing up.
Is the terrifying scenario that this just continues for months with no resolution?
Is the scenario an escalation by seizing Kharg island and then a hop skip and a jump to securing the Iranian coast to stop the attacks? And we have Vietnam again of this creeping escalation.
Is the plan to let it get bad enough for the rest of the world that they’re forced to intervene to get oil flowing again to stop energy prices going gang busters.
Well, look at the medium term upside of this mess: the Ukraine defence industry and their knowledge of using drones are very likely high on the priority list of some of the most cash rich nations in the world.
This kerfuffle has basically let the states at the south coast of the Persian Gulf see show pesky drone warfare can be, and they want one stop shopping for a solution that just works.
Basically the will further lessen any leverage Trump and his regime has over Ukraine, and it will also step up pressure on Europe’s ambitions to build cooperation with Ukraine, since Europe still suffer from slow response and show some deference to Russian leverage.
Gulf state level cash will accelerate many of these issues.
I think this won’t go away soon, nothing will be won. the strait will just remain „closed“ for most ships (because one drone damaging / sinking one tanker means no company will risk it). No coalition or single actor will be really able to guarantee safe passage. Everyone will adjust to the new reality, it just sucks and there will be some form of arrangement between gulf states and Iran because there is no real alternative to Hormuz. Israel will continue to bomb and assassinate to keep the regime on its toes. But Irans hardliner regime stays in place for now.
Trump is now actively trying to drag Europe into the war, so he can blame Europe for his own mess.
This article seems to miss the major risk here, which is that Iran has the United States cornered, and Trump is capable of making unthinkable decisions when trapped. Specifically I’m talking about nuclear weapons.
Hi should never happened , nobody voted for this war , majority of the people pay for the price for it though inflation and cost going up ! All I want is peace ! How many more wars we need to learn that wars leads us to nothing but more human suffering!
The tankers will not resume sailing unless and until the insurers are prepared to insure them for a feasible price. That is likely to take a lot longer than the politicians are currently prepared to admit, if the Yemen precedent is anything to go by.
If it takes 9 months+ to resume regular shipping, where will the world economy be?
Iran is basically under an embargo. Their ability to play offense and defense is severely degrading by the minute.
If Iran is winning here, what does losing look like?
Trump being president in the first place is already terrifying…
I wonder if there’re going to be another impending war by the US to cover this mishap.
IMO, desalinization plants should be the main concern. many of the gulf states need to make water to survive. and that can’t just be replaced easily. (nobody has spare water over there).
Iran hit one in the UAE, but has stopped targeting them.
it would take too long to rebuild if it is destroyed in many locations.
Reducing oil supply and increasing oil prices is wonderful news for the planet. Also the Iranian regime has been decapitated and will not be able to do much damage.
This is just clickbait.