Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio published a dire warning Monday: The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran will be a decisive confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz, and the outcome will determine far more than the price of oil. It will determine whether the American-led global order survives.
“It all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz,” Dalio wrote in a lengthy post on X. If Iran retains the ability to control or even negotiate over who passes through the strait—through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows daily—Dalio argues the U.S. will be seen as having lost the war, regardless of how the conflict is resolved.
Dalio compared a potential U.S. failure at Hormuz to Britain’s humiliation during the 1956 Suez Crisis, a moment widely regarded by historians as the end of the British Empire’s global imperialism. He pointed to a pattern he says has repeated across 500 years of history: a rising power challenges the dominant empire over a critical trade route while the world watches, and money and alliances shift fast toward whoever wins.
>Dalio framed both sides as locked into a conflict with no diplomatic exit. “While there is talk of ending this war with an agreement, everyone knows that no agreement will resolve this war because agreements are worthless,” he wrote, adding that whatever comes next—whether the U.S. takes control of the strait or leaves it to Iran—“is likely to be the worst phase of the conflict.”
This all doesn’t bode well for the US since they aren’t going to physically oust the Islamic regime and as long as it is there they’ll have enough drones to keep the strait closed. They can keep it closed for the rest of the time Trump is in office.
latache-ee on
Ray is out of his depth here. Stick to making billions off the backs of your investors.
ronartest420 on
Everyone who likes to smell their farts in the comfort of their third house reads Principles by Dalio
THE_CHOPPA on
I could be completely wrong or ignorant here but… how about we just don’t use the freaking strait?
There is no way you can convince an insurance company to cover the cost at this point anyways.
Sure India China and other countries will use it for awhile but why not throw billions at an alternative then smashing our head against seacliff for the next 3.5 years?
PurpleKoolAid60 on
Ray Dalio who tf is that and why should I base my day on him.
InternationalSuit779 on
Fight for the stait is already a handicaped battle strategically, in favour of the Iranians. The US obviously have planned for the contested area, the economical and political fallout, thus requiring the opening of the strait and control ofvthe shippinh lanes.
How on earth didn’t the administration of superpower not foresee the strait as the highest contested chess piece on the board.
Trumps admission of this in his speech last evening is an embarassment to warfare, intelligence, geopolitics, nevermind US prowess. There is the possibllity it was a trump barefaced lie as per every other sentence to leave the gobshits face, but I dont think it was a lie ! Wheres the motive to lie but not be prepared. Proves the point that they have surrounded themselves with stupidity, mis-informative yes people or he just a very poor decision maker and doesnt listen to anyone because his gigantic arrogance.
Just wow. Greatest military at your fingertips and no idea how to use them.
SuperNewk on
USA beat Canada in hockey, taking a straight can be done it 30 min
hoff4z on
This guy has not changed his theory in years. I questions any one who is that stubborn.
CJBill on
I’m struck that once again that some people, in this case Dalio, don’t understand asymmetric warfare. Shades of the American Vietnam war where countless battles were fought and won and yet the war was lost. Chess vs Go.
elykl12 on
Dalio read Dune and was like “OMG it’s literally me”
Trump has shown he has no idea what kind of solution is he. He alienates friends and empowers foes, and makes erratic, autocratic decisions that only makes him more like a fool. An embarrassment.
Benedictus84 on
The American global led order is already as good as dead.
They have lost all credibility and have shown to be far to unstable to lead anything.
The only thing they have left is threaten and bully countries to do their bidding and it already is not working anymore.
Francisco-De-Miranda on
The Suez Crisis comparison doesn’t really make sense because that only ended by the two superpowers teaming up against France and the UK. China and the EU are not going to do that. It’s more likely some EU states intervene against Iran than fighting the US.
17 Comments
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio published a dire warning Monday: The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran will be a decisive confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz, and the outcome will determine far more than the price of oil. It will determine whether the American-led global order survives.
“It all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz,” Dalio wrote in a lengthy post on X. If Iran retains the ability to control or even negotiate over who passes through the strait—through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows daily—Dalio argues the U.S. will be seen as having lost the war, regardless of how the conflict is resolved.
Dalio compared a potential U.S. failure at Hormuz to Britain’s humiliation during the 1956 Suez Crisis, a moment widely regarded by historians as the end of the British Empire’s global imperialism. He pointed to a pattern he says has repeated across 500 years of history: a rising power challenges the dominant empire over a critical trade route while the world watches, and money and alliances shift fast toward whoever wins.
Read more: [https://fortune.com/2026/03/17/ray-dalio-warns-iran-us-israel-strait-of-hormuz-battle-is-coming/](https://fortune.com/2026/03/17/ray-dalio-warns-iran-us-israel-strait-of-hormuz-battle-is-coming/)
>Dalio framed both sides as locked into a conflict with no diplomatic exit. “While there is talk of ending this war with an agreement, everyone knows that no agreement will resolve this war because agreements are worthless,” he wrote, adding that whatever comes next—whether the U.S. takes control of the strait or leaves it to Iran—“is likely to be the worst phase of the conflict.”
This all doesn’t bode well for the US since they aren’t going to physically oust the Islamic regime and as long as it is there they’ll have enough drones to keep the strait closed. They can keep it closed for the rest of the time Trump is in office.
Ray is out of his depth here. Stick to making billions off the backs of your investors.
Everyone who likes to smell their farts in the comfort of their third house reads Principles by Dalio
I could be completely wrong or ignorant here but… how about we just don’t use the freaking strait?
There is no way you can convince an insurance company to cover the cost at this point anyways.
Sure India China and other countries will use it for awhile but why not throw billions at an alternative then smashing our head against seacliff for the next 3.5 years?
Ray Dalio who tf is that and why should I base my day on him.
Fight for the stait is already a handicaped battle strategically, in favour of the Iranians. The US obviously have planned for the contested area, the economical and political fallout, thus requiring the opening of the strait and control ofvthe shippinh lanes.
How on earth didn’t the administration of superpower not foresee the strait as the highest contested chess piece on the board.
Trumps admission of this in his speech last evening is an embarassment to warfare, intelligence, geopolitics, nevermind US prowess. There is the possibllity it was a trump barefaced lie as per every other sentence to leave the gobshits face, but I dont think it was a lie ! Wheres the motive to lie but not be prepared. Proves the point that they have surrounded themselves with stupidity, mis-informative yes people or he just a very poor decision maker and doesnt listen to anyone because his gigantic arrogance.
Just wow. Greatest military at your fingertips and no idea how to use them.
USA beat Canada in hockey, taking a straight can be done it 30 min
This guy has not changed his theory in years. I questions any one who is that stubborn.
I’m struck that once again that some people, in this case Dalio, don’t understand asymmetric warfare. Shades of the American Vietnam war where countless battles were fought and won and yet the war was lost. Chess vs Go.
Dalio read Dune and was like “OMG it’s literally me”
Captain America endgame?
[Video. ](https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/88967f8f-9d45-42d8-8def-ecfa4962c26e)
Trump has shown he has no idea what kind of solution is he. He alienates friends and empowers foes, and makes erratic, autocratic decisions that only makes him more like a fool. An embarrassment.
The American global led order is already as good as dead.
They have lost all credibility and have shown to be far to unstable to lead anything.
The only thing they have left is threaten and bully countries to do their bidding and it already is not working anymore.
The Suez Crisis comparison doesn’t really make sense because that only ended by the two superpowers teaming up against France and the UK. China and the EU are not going to do that. It’s more likely some EU states intervene against Iran than fighting the US.
Iran: “This isn’t even my final form!!!”