The LPC has taken the lead in Alberta, 41-37 but with a surprisingly high NDP number there too.
I’m not sure I buy that, but poll after poll is showing that Alberta has thawed massively to Carney and Calgary and Edmonton are now certified battlegrounds.
This is a five alarm fire for the Conservatives.
Quebec is also a bloodbath. The Bloc are down nearly 30 points. At this point I feel like Terrebonne has to be considered “Leaning LPC”.
Drummers_Beat on
This isn’t even really an outlier as it’s not that far off Abacus, Nanos, or others. The LPC number has stayed remarkably static around 46-50%. This is a lower CPC number than usual though but given the collapsing trend we’re seeing it doesn’t shock me too much.
In models this would project to 270+ seats for LPC which is just absurd.
OneLessFool on
I mean if there’s any good news for the NDP here, it is a recovery trend that Lewis can grow on. If the CPC numbers are anywhere near 27.0 come election time, the NDP will have a very easy time picking up ABC progressives who held their nose and voted for the Liberals in the last election
isle_say on
My read is that the NDPers that voted Liberal in the last election are drifting back but enough conservatives are moving to the Liberal to more than make up the difference. Carney is even cutting into the conservative base.
GirlCoveredInBlood on
Entered all the regional data into the Poliwave simulator and got the following results
LPC 267 seats
CPC 54 seats
NDP 18 seats
GPC 3 seats
BQ 1 seat
They have the LPC at 49.2% in QC to the Blocs 18.7%. Funny enough the CPC and NDP both manage to have two seats in Québec
Asadleafsfan on
Like a few others have already noted, EKOS’ strength has been in catching polling trends earlier before anyone else, even if the numbers are dead wrong in the moment. So the question then becomes: what numbers will the other pollsters be producing in the next few weeks?
(This is all assuming that EKOS is actually catching a trend here, which possibly it might actually not be)
Various-Passenger398 on
Liberals leading in all demographics except men 50-64 and families with 3+ children.
Liberals leading in all regions of the country, even Alberta.
Poilievre is getting absolutely thrashed right now. That sham of a leadership contest is going to age like milk in the foreseeable future.
PotentialRise7587 on
From a quick scan of the poll:
-Liberals leading by 4 in Alberta is pretty bad news for the CPC. Liberals also have a ridiculous 41 point lead with voters 65+.
-Some signs of an NDP recovery, before the new leader has even been elected. They’ve retaken part of their historical competitiveness among voters under 35.
OttoVonDisraeli on
In the lead in Alberta!? Is hell freezing over? What a crazy time we’re living in. The Liberals are showing why they are referred to as the Natural Governing Party of Canada. Sorry I have nothing more substantive to say, I’m actually shocked by this.
AdmiralAsshat69 on
Looks to me like Carney is getting all the PCs and the NDP is recovering support from the left (a bit).
And while it looks good for the LPC, we are about to enter a massive energy/financial crisis, so all bets are off in the long term.
fredovan on
Don’t believe this poll at all. The lowest result the modern Conservative Party got in an election is 29%. And they got that result in 2004 6 months after the party was established. How am I supposed to believe that they are at 27%! Their rock bottom is in the low 30s. Until they actually get less than 30% in an election, I won’t believe any poll that has them in the 20s.
MenudoMenudo on
Carney feels like the opposite of Trudeau, and while I personally dislike how far to the right he’s moved, I can see how lots of Canadians will like that. Throw in that PP is deeply unlikable, and I’m honestly surprised that the LPC isn’t beating the CPC by even more.
LaserRunRaccoon on
Carney will likely secure a narrow majority without an election, but will have to contend with the dangers of a narrow majority and rightfully being perceived as running a (centre) right wing government. The pendulum is going to swing, as it always does. These two paragraphs seem accurate to me:
> There has also been significant churning beneath the surface. The leaderless and penniless NDP are nonetheless rising. This is not a marginal shift. The Conservatives are now closer to the NDP than they are to the Liberals. Among female voters under 35, the NDP are tied with the Liberals for first place.
> The NDP’s rise is being driven by the emergence of a new progressive populist segment. These voters are skeptical of elites but strongly supportive of social programs, unions, and a more active government. They are politically homeless, but for now, they are far more comfortable with Carney than with Poilievre.
Le1bn1z on
Critical takeaways that risk being buried by the topline.
1. As the nice people from EKOS put it: **”For now, the Liberals are in commanding control of the political landscape.** ***But the speed of their rise is also a reminder of how quickly that landscape can change.*****”** This a poll outside of a campaign period. If history is useful for setting probabilities, it likely does not come close to how the votes will pan out on election day. This political landscape is not just all about dominance, but even more so about high levels of volatility, anxiety, and therefore uncertainty.
2. People keep sleeping on the populist swing in Canada, but EKOS is on to it: “The NDP’s rise is being driven by the emergence of a **new progressive populist segment**. These voters are skeptical of elites but strongly supportive of social programs, unions, and a more active government. They are politically homeless, but for now, they are far more comfortable with Carney than with Poilievre… The progressive populist segment now emerging in Canada does not fit neatly into existing party structures. Disinformation remains a volatile threat. And the underlying drivers of this shift (economic anxiety, institutional distrust, and perceived external threat) have not disappeared.” I was just talking about this in the last Lewis thread. He is winning the NDP leadership because he is tapped into this, and its going to make him stronger generally than his policies would normally allow him to be.
3. While some on the right may panic at these numbers, they can take solace in knowing that its just one poll from one pollster, and thanks to their party’s wise positions and leadership, the CPC is still finishing a strong second place in Alberta.
Timely-Profile1865 on
All the people that supported PP during his evaluation are like the Bluth family. ‘I think I’ve made a terrible mistake’
Mreeder16 on
I have voted across the spectrum at different times in my life. I honestly cant think of one compelling reason to vote for the CPC in it’s current form
Working-Welder-792 on
I’m concerned that if an election were held today, the Liberals would win a little too much. Hundreds of bored backbenchers is never good. You might even say they’d get tired of the winning.
Individual_Step2242 on
Shocking numbers to say the least. ONE BQ seat in QC? That’s worse than the NDP sweep in 2011. LPC in the lead in Alberta? I can’t fathom that. I don’t think this is so much a LPC vs CPC race as a Carney vs PP race. And PP is clearly losing.
18 Comments
The LPC has taken the lead in Alberta, 41-37 but with a surprisingly high NDP number there too.
I’m not sure I buy that, but poll after poll is showing that Alberta has thawed massively to Carney and Calgary and Edmonton are now certified battlegrounds.
This is a five alarm fire for the Conservatives.
Quebec is also a bloodbath. The Bloc are down nearly 30 points. At this point I feel like Terrebonne has to be considered “Leaning LPC”.
This isn’t even really an outlier as it’s not that far off Abacus, Nanos, or others. The LPC number has stayed remarkably static around 46-50%. This is a lower CPC number than usual though but given the collapsing trend we’re seeing it doesn’t shock me too much.
In models this would project to 270+ seats for LPC which is just absurd.
I mean if there’s any good news for the NDP here, it is a recovery trend that Lewis can grow on. If the CPC numbers are anywhere near 27.0 come election time, the NDP will have a very easy time picking up ABC progressives who held their nose and voted for the Liberals in the last election
My read is that the NDPers that voted Liberal in the last election are drifting back but enough conservatives are moving to the Liberal to more than make up the difference. Carney is even cutting into the conservative base.
Entered all the regional data into the Poliwave simulator and got the following results
LPC 267 seats
CPC 54 seats
NDP 18 seats
GPC 3 seats
BQ 1 seat
They have the LPC at 49.2% in QC to the Blocs 18.7%. Funny enough the CPC and NDP both manage to have two seats in Québec
Like a few others have already noted, EKOS’ strength has been in catching polling trends earlier before anyone else, even if the numbers are dead wrong in the moment. So the question then becomes: what numbers will the other pollsters be producing in the next few weeks?
(This is all assuming that EKOS is actually catching a trend here, which possibly it might actually not be)
Liberals leading in all demographics except men 50-64 and families with 3+ children.
Liberals leading in all regions of the country, even Alberta.
Poilievre is getting absolutely thrashed right now. That sham of a leadership contest is going to age like milk in the foreseeable future.
From a quick scan of the poll:
-Liberals leading by 4 in Alberta is pretty bad news for the CPC. Liberals also have a ridiculous 41 point lead with voters 65+.
-Some signs of an NDP recovery, before the new leader has even been elected. They’ve retaken part of their historical competitiveness among voters under 35.
In the lead in Alberta!? Is hell freezing over? What a crazy time we’re living in. The Liberals are showing why they are referred to as the Natural Governing Party of Canada. Sorry I have nothing more substantive to say, I’m actually shocked by this.
Looks to me like Carney is getting all the PCs and the NDP is recovering support from the left (a bit).
And while it looks good for the LPC, we are about to enter a massive energy/financial crisis, so all bets are off in the long term.
Don’t believe this poll at all. The lowest result the modern Conservative Party got in an election is 29%. And they got that result in 2004 6 months after the party was established. How am I supposed to believe that they are at 27%! Their rock bottom is in the low 30s. Until they actually get less than 30% in an election, I won’t believe any poll that has them in the 20s.
Carney feels like the opposite of Trudeau, and while I personally dislike how far to the right he’s moved, I can see how lots of Canadians will like that. Throw in that PP is deeply unlikable, and I’m honestly surprised that the LPC isn’t beating the CPC by even more.
Carney will likely secure a narrow majority without an election, but will have to contend with the dangers of a narrow majority and rightfully being perceived as running a (centre) right wing government. The pendulum is going to swing, as it always does. These two paragraphs seem accurate to me:
> There has also been significant churning beneath the surface. The leaderless and penniless NDP are nonetheless rising. This is not a marginal shift. The Conservatives are now closer to the NDP than they are to the Liberals. Among female voters under 35, the NDP are tied with the Liberals for first place.
> The NDP’s rise is being driven by the emergence of a new progressive populist segment. These voters are skeptical of elites but strongly supportive of social programs, unions, and a more active government. They are politically homeless, but for now, they are far more comfortable with Carney than with Poilievre.
Critical takeaways that risk being buried by the topline.
1. As the nice people from EKOS put it: **”For now, the Liberals are in commanding control of the political landscape.** ***But the speed of their rise is also a reminder of how quickly that landscape can change.*****”** This a poll outside of a campaign period. If history is useful for setting probabilities, it likely does not come close to how the votes will pan out on election day. This political landscape is not just all about dominance, but even more so about high levels of volatility, anxiety, and therefore uncertainty.
2. People keep sleeping on the populist swing in Canada, but EKOS is on to it: “The NDP’s rise is being driven by the emergence of a **new progressive populist segment**. These voters are skeptical of elites but strongly supportive of social programs, unions, and a more active government. They are politically homeless, but for now, they are far more comfortable with Carney than with Poilievre… The progressive populist segment now emerging in Canada does not fit neatly into existing party structures. Disinformation remains a volatile threat. And the underlying drivers of this shift (economic anxiety, institutional distrust, and perceived external threat) have not disappeared.” I was just talking about this in the last Lewis thread. He is winning the NDP leadership because he is tapped into this, and its going to make him stronger generally than his policies would normally allow him to be.
3. While some on the right may panic at these numbers, they can take solace in knowing that its just one poll from one pollster, and thanks to their party’s wise positions and leadership, the CPC is still finishing a strong second place in Alberta.
All the people that supported PP during his evaluation are like the Bluth family. ‘I think I’ve made a terrible mistake’
I have voted across the spectrum at different times in my life. I honestly cant think of one compelling reason to vote for the CPC in it’s current form
I’m concerned that if an election were held today, the Liberals would win a little too much. Hundreds of bored backbenchers is never good. You might even say they’d get tired of the winning.
Shocking numbers to say the least. ONE BQ seat in QC? That’s worse than the NDP sweep in 2011. LPC in the lead in Alberta? I can’t fathom that. I don’t think this is so much a LPC vs CPC race as a Carney vs PP race. And PP is clearly losing.