I've been researching where AI and robotics actually take us when you follow the logic to its conclusion. Not hype, just the sequence of events already in motion.
The short version:
AI is already replacing knowledge work. WEF says 22% of jobs disrupted by 2030. McKinsey says 60-70% of document/research/analysis tasks are automatable now. Job postings for repetitive roles dropped 13% since ChatGPT launched.
Humanoid robots are shipping. 15,000 installed globally in 2025. China made 85% of them. Unitree sold a full-size humanoid for under $6k. Tesla is targeting $20k at scale. That works out to $0.57/hour running 24/7 for 4 years.
Both of these things together cause structural deflation. Not because demand drops, but because the cost of producing everything falls. Altman, Khosla, and the IMF all agree on this.
Which leads to UBI becoming less of a fringe idea and more of a mathematical inevitability. A small income goes a long way when everything is cheaper.
I wrote up the full research with sources from McKinsey, Goldman Sachs, Hamilton Project, Morgan Stanley, IPPR, and others here: https://www.growthmode.agency/research/the-inevitable-destination
Curious what people think about the timeline. Is this 5 years away or 15?
The maths on humanoid robots is wild. $0.57/hour… Are we cooked?
byu/Plenty_Eagle3160 inFuturology
17 Comments
There are two inevitabilities. Either UBI, or the rich scheme to wipe out the useless eaters. They are not known for their charity so I am leaning towards extermination as the likely future.
Say it with me. UBI will never ever ever happen under any circumstances. The rich will take the gains for themselves. They really do not care if 99% of humanity is starving and revolting. With enough robots and drones, they will be untouchable.
I’m curious why you think that UBI would actually happen in a system where the end goal is to extract as much profit and value as possible. Where’s the sudden generosity? You say government taxes, but that seems (unforunately) laughably naive given the state of the world.
That’s wild, that’s actually even more expensive than just hiring somebody in Malaysia like they already do today
I already see companies bragging about replacing workers with ai every day.
I don’t see much of a mainstream push for universal basic income.
We are cooked.
>Which leads to UBI becoming less of a fringe idea and more of a mathematical inevitability.
Markets and fiscal policy are run by people, not math. Sorry you had to find out this way.
Whoever is saying $0.57/hr is lying. That’s a “pulled it out of my ass” number if I’ve ever seen one
We’re gonna need universal income really soon at this speed. But I’m gonna go out on a limb and say the wealthy making profits off of this automation, won’t want to share a single dime, if they can lobby their way out of it.
0% chance of ubi in the US without a fundamental reversal of the extreme wealth inequality we live under. They already own everything. This system is content to watch the entire bottom half of its people rot in plain sight already, and they are probably excited at the prospect of shoveling more human capital stock into the charnel pit
There is another social construct where a mega rich person pays a few enforcers slightly more than the poors to keep us all slaves and poor. But I hope UBI is a thing, yeah.
That number is fiction, or only accounts for power costs while ignoring the LARGE initial investment and any maintenance / replacement parts.
Companies will do the math on the attenuation of these robots, and they WILL start to replace humans, but it will be gradual. The main benefit of the bots is that they can work 24/7, no holidays, benefits, risk of lawsuit. A fully autonomous workspace could ignore OSHA regulations. It’s only a matter of time, but that time is further off than most fear.
The price is nice and all, except those robots don’t do any work.
The bots are easy, the software to drive them to do something useful is not. Maybe you can vibecode the control software? Good luck with that.
My friend, the megacorporations will keep all of that profit margin increase. And there won’t be any UBI globally to offset these disruptions.
Corporations and governments only do what the people *force them* to do. And with labor closing so much of its bargaining power, coupled with real time universal surveillance, we are looking at techno-feudalism.
This trajectory ends in serfdom, not post-scarcity.
[Tendency for the rate of profit to fall](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tendency_of_the_rate_of_profit_to_fall)
So… work will slow down for everyone and salaries will raise, right? And not only the rich will get richer, right?…
Oh boy, a tale as old as time…
We have been automating menial low-value human tasks for literally centuries. Are we cooked?
Its funny as companies seem to fail to realize that if AI and robots put everyone out of work then no one will be able to buy their products/services without any income.