Ciaran Doyle previews Thursday’s UEFA World Cup Play-Off Path A semifinal between Wales and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup continues on Thursday as the play-offs for a spot in this summer’s tournament commence. The winner of Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina will take on the winner of Italy vs. Northern Ireland for a place in the World Cup.
It’s essentially a four-team bracket for one spot in the tournament. The eventual winner of the four-team bracket will join Group B in the World Cup alongside Canada, Qatar and Switzerland.
Wales are -115 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook for this one, with a draw available at +240. Fancy a Bosnia and Herzegovina upset? They are +350 on the moneyline.
The Welsh are favorites to advance to the play-off final at -230, while Bosnia and Herzegovina are available at +170.
In the FIFA World Rankings, Wales are ranked #35 while Bosnia and Herzegovina sit at #71.
Wales finished second in Group J of UEFA World Cup qualifying, as Belgium won the group. The Welsh finished ahead of North Macedonia, Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein in order to qualify for the play-offs. They won five of their eight games, drawing one and losing two. It’s no surprise that the two losses came against one of the best teams in the World, Belgium, and the draw was away to North Macedonia.
Bosnia are ranked just five spots behind North Macedonia in the rankings, so expect this to be a similar test in terms of difficulty. Wales beat them 7-1 in Cardiff on the last day of qualifying. I’m not sure if this will be as big of a beating, but I expect Wales to win this one comfortably.
Bosnia finished second in Group H behind Austria and ahead of Romania, Cyprus and San Marino. They won five, drew two and lost one of their eight games. As you would expect, they failed to beat Austria on both occasions. San Marino are ranked #210 in the world, so those results are essentially irrelevant. Their two biggest wins both came against Romania, who are slightly behind Wales in the ranking at #49.
I don’t expect a Wales vs. North Macedonia type of result in this one, but the Welsh are definitely the better team and playing at home in Cardiff is a huge advantage.