Rarely does a single issue bring down a politician or a party. More often, disaster comes when two or more thorny issues intersect and reinforce one another.
That’s what happened to Joe Biden in 2024: Inflation and immigration, combined with concerns about his age, ended his presidential campaign. By contrast, problems with the war in Iraq were not enough to defeat George W. Bush in 2004.
Now Democrats are watching midterm elections for signs of a Republican collapse. They believe growing dissatisfaction with Donald Trump’s handling of two big issues — the economy and the Iran war — could bring down the GOP this November.
They may be right. Trump was reelected on promises to stop inflation and keep the nation out of war. Most Americans don’t believe he’s doing either, yet his party continues to back him.
It’s always instructive to compare a president’s job rating with the popular vote he received in the last election. In 2024, Trump won nearly 50% of the vote. His average approval rating, based on six polls, is currently 40%. That’s a 10-point slide.
Trump’s dominance of the GOP makes his problems the party’s problems. His allies in state and district races worry they will pay the price in November for growing public discontent. Declining support among independent voters — who often swing close elections — is supercharging these jitters.
On war policy, only 39% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of the war. Among independents, it drops to 28%. That’s based on the latest Economist/YouGov poll.
The CBS News poll finds that 68% of Americans believe Trump hasn’t clearly explained U.S. goals in Iran; among independents it’s 76%. That’s a major stumbling block.
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Public perceptions linking foreign policy, centered on the Iran war, with the economy, centered on inflation, is the biggest political threat Trump and Republicans face this November.
According to CBS polling, 85% of Americans say gas prices “in their area” have gone up. More ominously, two-thirds of Americans say they’re “not willing” to pay higher gas prices during a war that 57% say is going very or somewhat badly. Above all, 92% want the conflict ended as quickly as possible.
The same survey shows that 61% of Americans rate the economy as very or fairly bad. Among independents, it’s 69%. Additionally, only 33% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s handling of inflation; among independents, it’s a dismal 23%.
Just because most Americans believe the war is going badly, or the economy is in the ditch, doesn’t necessarily mean those assessments are correct. But public perception is what matters in elections, and polls show those perceptions are distinctly negative.
When a president is unpopular, the opposing party frames midterm elections as a referendum on him. Democrats will try that this year. Republicans, of course, will try to turn the contest into a referendum on unpopular Democratic policies associated with the party’s left wing––and that punch still has force in plenty of red states and districts.
Let’s not forget, too, that Trump’s base remains strong; 88% of Republicans approve of his job performance in the latest CBS poll. That’s why his popularity, while diminished, still leans positive in states he’s consistently won by wide margins, such as Louisiana.
But swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina are different stories. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff is widely seen as the most vulnerable Democratic senator running this year, yet he currently leads his Republican challengers. In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper is polling ahead of former Republican National Committee Chair Mike Whatley for an open Senate seat now held by a Republican.
Seven months between now and the general election is still time for tables to turn, at least partially. If the Iran war soon ends on U.S. terms, if gas prices take a dive and the economy looks better, then the Republican collapse that Democrats are hoping for may not materialize.
When politics are deeply polarized as they are now, and each party builds its wins on the other side’s flaws, it’s more difficult for either party to score big victories.
This is why politics, so fickle and maddening, and increasingly noxious, is still worth watching.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst, writer and pollster based in Louisiana.