Meteorologists are warning Manitobans not to put away their shovels or take off their snow tires just yet.
Terri Lang with Environment Canada says forecasters are tracking not one, but two Montana Lows that could impact southern Manitoba over the next 10 days.
Residents across the southern half of the province woke up to a fresh layer of snow on the ground Friday morning, and Lang says that should be the last of it until early next week. Environment Canada is calling for mainly sunny skies through the weekend, with daytime highs ranging from around four to seven degrees — right around seasonal for this time of year.
First Montana Low could arrive Monday
That changes Monday, when a developing system could move through the region. Lang says forecasters are still working to pin down the details, but early indications suggest more snow is possible, along with a risk of freezing rain.
She explains this system is a Montana Low moving in from the west and expected to track near the U.S. border. These systems are notoriously difficult to forecast several days out due to shifting atmospheric conditions.
“Right now, it’s looking to put the heavier snow sort of through the central part of Saskatchewan and Manitoba,” says Lang, “with the risk of that freezing rain closer to the border.”
Small shifts in the storm track could mean big differences across southern Manitoba. A more northerly track would bring warmer air and potentially more freezing rain, while a southern path would favour heavier snowfall.
Lang says snowfall totals remain uncertain but notes these systems can be significant.
“They can easily drop 10 to 15 centimetres,” she says, adding that amounts will depend heavily on the storm’s eventual path.
“It’s really hard to try and pin it down right now.”
Second Montana Low could follow
Once that system moves through, there may be a brief break before another similar system develops. Lang says a second Montana Low is showing up in longer-range models about 10 days out.
“Way, way, way too early to say anything about it,” she says.
Still, she notes that seeing multiple systems in close succession is not unusual.
“They keep doing the same thing over and over again because that’s what is working for them.”
While confidence is low on the second system, Lang says there is a strong signal that the first will impact southern Manitoba early next week.
“We look at a number of weather models,” she explains. “They are all agreeing something is coming through.”
Winter not done yet
The pattern is a reminder that winter is still holding on across the region, even as the calendar turns toward spring.
“We all want spring to be here,” says Lang. “Seems to be a little bit slow this year.”
El Niño influence continues
Meanwhile, Environment Canada Senior Climatologist David Phillips says the overall spring outlook still leans warmer than normal.
Lang says after a weak El Niño this past winter, conditions are shifting toward neutral, but another El Niño is expected to build later this year — which could bring warmer weather heading into summer.