Middle East Conflict Drives Up European Energy & Food Prices in 2026 | Analysis - News and Statistics

Mar 29, 2026

According to an analysis from Euronews Business, recent military actions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran have elevated oil prices, with Brent crude frequently exceeding one hundred dollars per barrel. This development is anticipated to influence not only energy markets but also the cost of food globally and within Europe, potentially increasing the overall cost of living.

Transmission Channels for Food Inflation

Analysts indicate the crisis is likely to elevate worldwide food prices through several mechanisms. These include disturbances in the supply of fertilizer and energy, alongside increased shipping expenses. A senior fellow at Bruegel highlighted that a significant portion of global fertilizer and oil shipments transit the Strait of Hormuz, a passage reportedly closed due to hostilities.

Elevated fertilizer costs directly raise agricultural production expenses. Concurrently, substantial increases in oil and liquefied natural gas prices have raised fuel costs, affecting the entire food supply chain from production to transportation.

Projections and Compounding Pressures

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization projects global fertilizer prices could be fifteen to twenty percent higher on average in the initial half of 2026 if the situation continues. The organization’s chief economist stated that rising input costs for farmers may lead to reduced application, potentially lowering crop yields later in the year and tightening global grain supplies. After a stable period, the FAO Food Price Index has started to climb again.

European natural gas prices reportedly rose between fifty and seventy-five percent in the initial weeks of the crisis. Higher energy costs affect multiple stages of the agricultural supply chain, including farm operations, irrigation, and food processing, with these pressures expected to reach consumer prices. The FAO warns that if high costs lead farmers to reduce fertilizer use, future harvests could diminish, leading to tighter grain supplies and a potential surge in food prices later in 2026.

Key Vulnerabilities for European Nations

The crisis is seen as affecting European food inflation primarily through three channels. The first is energy costs. The Persian Gulf is a critical supplier of refined fuels, and supply disruptions have increased diesel and jet fuel prices, raising transportation and logistics costs. Higher natural gas prices also impact European fertilizer production, which was already facing cost pressures before the conflict.

The second channel is fertilizer prices. While Europe does not import large volumes directly from the Gulf, global market disruptions, such as for urea, cause worldwide price surges that increase input costs for European farmers. Since nitrogen fertilizer production depends heavily on natural gas, the spike in European gas prices has further raised domestic production costs.

The third channel is biofuel demand. Increased oil prices make ethanol and biodiesel production more profitable, prompting greater demand for feedstocks like maize and soybean oil. This can divert crops from food production, tightening global grain supplies and pushing food prices higher.

National Exposures and Historical Context

Data indicates Gulf refineries supplied an estimated sixty percent of Europe’s jet fuel and twenty percent of its diesel in 2025. Analysts suggest European countries with major aviation hubs and those dependent on diesel for transport and agriculture would be most affected. Regarding refined fuel imports, the Netherlands and Belgium are identified as highly exposed due to their major refining and petrochemical clusters. Germany, as the continent’s largest diesel consumer, faces significant exposure, as do France, Italy, and Spain due to their substantial aviation, agricultural, and industrial diesel demand.

Vulnerability is also linked to natural gas dependency, as roughly one-fifth of global LNG exports originate in the Gulf and transit the Strait of Hormuz. Italy has been a major importer of Qatari LNG, while Spain, France, and the Netherlands possess significant LNG import infrastructure with exposure to Gulf suppliers. The Netherlands and Belgium also face risk from potential disruptions to Gulf-derived petrochemical feedstocks.

A senior analyst from Rabobank noted that European fertilizer users may not feel the full cost impact until autumn, as current needs are supplied. She explained that the transformation and transport of products into final food goods require energy, with a time lag between energy price increases and corresponding rises in supermarket food prices, a pattern observed previously.

A policy brief from Oxford Economics anticipates the conflict will have a more adverse impact on Europe than on the United States due to the energy market shock. In 2025, annual inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages in the European Union was 3.3%, with national rates varying widely. Turkey experienced a much higher annual food inflation rate.

This report provides a comprehensive view of the crude oil industry in Europe, tracking demand, supply, and trade flows across the regional value chain. It explains how demand across key channels and end-use segments shapes consumption patterns, while also mapping the role of input availability, production efficiency, and regulatory standards on supply.

Beyond headline metrics, the study benchmarks prices, margins, and trade routes so you can see where value is created and how it moves between exporters and importers within Europe. The analysis is designed to support strategic planning, market entry, portfolio prioritization, and risk management in the crude oil landscape in Europe.

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Key findings

Regional demand is shaped by both household and industrial usage, with trade flows linking supply hubs to import-reliant countries.
Pricing dynamics reflect unit values, freight costs, exchange rates, and regulatory shifts that affect sourcing decisions.
Supply depends on input availability and production efficiency, creating distinct cost curves across Europe.
Market concentration varies by country, creating different competitive landscapes and entry barriers.
The 2035 outlook highlights where capacity investment and demand growth are most aligned within the region.

Report scope

The report combines market sizing with trade intelligence and price analytics for Europe. It covers both historical performance and the forward outlook to 2035, allowing you to compare cycles, structural shifts, and policy impacts across countries and sub-regions.

Market size and growth in value and volume terms
Consumption structure by end-use segments and countries
Production capacity, output, and cost dynamics
Regional trade flows, exporters, importers, and balances
Price benchmarks, unit values, and margin signals
Competitive context and market entry conditions

Product coverageCountry coverageCountry profiles and benchmarks

For the regional report, country profiles provide a consistent view of market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators across Europe. The profiles highlight the largest consuming and producing markets and allow direct benchmarking across peers.

Methodology

The analysis is built on a multi-source framework that combines official statistics, trade records, company disclosures, and expert validation. Data are standardized, reconciled, and cross-checked to ensure consistency across time series.

International trade data (exports, imports, and mirror statistics)
National production and consumption statistics
Company-level information from financial filings and public releases
Price series and unit value benchmarks
Analyst review, outlier checks, and time-series validation

All data are normalized to a common product definition and mapped to a consistent set of codes. This ensures that comparisons across time are aligned and actionable.

Forecasts to 2035

The forecast horizon extends to 2035 and is based on a structured model that links crude oil demand and supply to macroeconomic indicators, trade patterns, and sector-specific drivers. The model captures both cyclical and structural factors and reflects known policy and technology shifts within Europe.

Historical baseline: 2012-2025
Forecast horizon: 2026-2035
Scenario-based sensitivity to income growth, substitution, and regulation
Capacity and investment outlook for major producing countries

Each country projection is built from its own historical pattern and the regional context, allowing the report to show where growth is concentrated and where risks are elevated.

Price analysis and trade dynamics

Prices are analyzed in detail, including export and import unit values, regional spreads, and changes in trade costs. The report highlights how seasonality, freight rates, exchange rates, and supply disruptions influence pricing and margins.

Price benchmarks by country and sub-region
Export and import unit value trends
Seasonality and calendar effects in trade flows
Price outlook to 2035 under baseline assumptions

Profiles of market participants

Key producers, exporters, and distributors are profiled with a focus on their operational scale, geographic footprint, product mix, and market positioning. This helps identify competitive pressure points, partnership opportunities, and routes to differentiation.

Business focus and production capabilities
Geographic reach and distribution networks
Cost structure and pricing strategy indicators
Compliance, certification, and sustainability context

How to use this report

Quantify regional demand and identify the most attractive country markets
Evaluate export opportunities and prioritize target destinations
Track price dynamics and protect margins
Benchmark performance against regional competitors
Build evidence-based forecasts for investment decisions

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors, and advisors who need a clear, data-driven picture of crude oil dynamics in Europe.

FAQ
What is included in the crude oil market in Europe?

The market size aggregates consumption and trade data at country and sub-regional levels, presented in both value and volume terms.

How are the forecasts to 2035 built?

The projections combine historical trends with macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and sector-specific drivers.

Does the report cover prices and margins?

Yes, it includes export and import unit values, regional spreads, and a pricing outlook to 2035.

Which countries are profiled in detail?

The report provides profiles for the largest consuming and producing countries in Europe.

Can this report support market entry decisions?

Yes, it highlights demand hotspots, trade routes, pricing trends, and competitive context.

1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
1. KEY FINDINGS
2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional EditionPRO
3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects
1. MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
2. CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
3. MARKET FORECAST TO 2035
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
4. MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export
1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
2. PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
8. IMPORTS
The Largest Import Supplying Countries
1. IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
9. EXPORTS
The Largest Destinations for Exports
1. EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition
PRO
1. 11.1
  Albania
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
2. 11.2
  Andorra
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
3. 11.3
  Austria
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
4. 11.4
  Belarus
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
5. 11.5
  Belgium
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
6. 11.6
  Bosnia and Herzegovina
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
7. 11.7
  Bulgaria
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
8. 11.8
  Croatia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
9. 11.9
  Czech Republic
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
10. 11.10
  Denmark
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
11. 11.11
  Estonia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
12. 11.12
  Faroe Islands
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
13. 11.13
  Finland
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
14. 11.14
  France
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
15. 11.15
  Germany
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
16. 11.16
  Gibraltar
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
17. 11.17
  Greece
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
18. 11.18
  Holy See
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
19. 11.19
  Hungary
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
20. 11.20
  Iceland
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
21. 11.21
  Ireland
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
22. 11.22
  Italy
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
23. 11.23
  Latvia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
24. 11.24
  Lithuania
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
25. 11.25
  Luxembourg
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
26. 11.26
  North Macedonia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
27. 11.27
  Malta
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
28. 11.28
  Moldova
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
29. 11.29
  Montenegro
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
30. 11.30
  Netherlands
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
31. 11.31
  Norway
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
32. 11.32
  Poland
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
33. 11.33
  Portugal
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
34. 11.34
  Romania
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
35. 11.35
  Russia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
36. 11.36
  San Marino
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
37. 11.37
  Serbia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
38. 11.38
  Slovakia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
39. 11.39
  Slovenia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
40. 11.40
  Spain
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
41. 11.41
  Sweden
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
42. 11.42
  Switzerland
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
43. 11.43
  Ukraine
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
44. 11.44
  United Kingdom
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
45. 11.45
  Liechtenstein
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
46. 11.46
  Isle of Man
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
47. 11.47
  Monaco
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
LIST OF TABLES
1. Key Findings In 2025
2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
3. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
4. Per Capita Consumption, by Country, 2022–2025
5. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
6. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
7. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
8. Import Prices, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
9. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
10. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
11. Export Prices, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
LIST OF FIGURES
1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
2. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
3. Consumption, by Country, 2025
4. Market Volume Forecast to 2035
5. Market Value Forecast to 2035
6. Market Size and Growth, By Product
7. Average Per Capita Consumption, By Product
8. Exports and Growth, By Product
9. Export Prices and Growth, By Product
10. Production Volume and Growth
11. Exports and Growth
12. Export Prices and Growth
13. Market Size and Growth
14. Per Capita Consumption
15. Imports and Growth
16. Import Prices
17. Production, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
18. Production, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
19. Production, by Country, 2025
20. Production, In Physical Terms, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
21. Imports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
22. Imports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
23. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2025
24. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
25. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
26. Import Prices, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
27. Exports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
28. Exports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
29. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2025
30. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
31. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
32. Export Prices, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)

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Middle East Conflict Drives Up European Energy & Food Prices in 2026 | Analysis – News and Statistics