There isn’t much movement in our latest federal tracking, but that’s kind of the point.
After a few waves where things were shifting in the Liberals’ favour, this one looks more like a pause. The overall structure of opinion hasn’t really changed. The Liberals are still ahead. The government is still viewed fairly positively. The broader mood is steady.
If an election were held today, the Liberals are at 44% among committed voters, compared with 37% for the Conservatives. Last time out, the gap was a bit wider, so technically this is a slight narrowing. But we’re talking about a couple of points moving at the margins. Nothing here suggests a meaningful shift in vote intention.
The NDP ticks up to 9%, while the Bloc is at 6% and the Greens at 3%. Those numbers also look familiar. As the NDP announces it’s new leader today, the party is still in single digits. If you missed my deep dive on the NDP, you can read it here.
What’s more interesting in these numbers is how stable the underlying attitudes are.
On direction of the country, 42% say things are headed in the right direction and 44% say they’re off on the wrong track. That’s unchanged from earlier in the month. It’s also consistent with what we’ve seen for a while now. Canadians are split, but not in a deeply pessimistic way.
At the same time, views of the world remain overwhelmingly negative. Only 13% think things globally are headed in the right direction, and views of the United States are just as bleak. That gap between how people see Canada and how they see everything else is still one of the defining features of public opinion right now.
It helps explain why the Liberals continue to have an advantage.
When people are focused on global instability, they tend to lean more toward the governing party. You can see that clearly in the issue data. Among those who say Donald Trump and his administration is a top concern, the Liberals lead by a wide margin, 61% to 20%.
On more traditional domestic issues, it’s a bit more competitive. On cost of living, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 41% among those who prioritize it. On the economy, the Liberals actually have a small edge, 46% to 41%. That’s a change from earlier when the Conservatives tended to lead on those questions.
Government approval is still solid. Right now, 54% approve of the job the government is doing and 30% disapprove. That’s down slightly from our last wave, but still comfortably in majority territory. For a government that’s now a year into its mandate, those are good numbers.
Leader impressions haven’t moved much either. Mark Carney remains clearly in positive territory with a net favourability of +21. Pierre Poilievre is still negative at -4, though that’s a bit better than where he was earlier in the month.
One number I keep coming back to is the question about whether the Liberals deserve to be re-elected or whether it’s time for a change. Right now, it’s split right down the middle. 39% say re-elect the Liberals. 39% say it’s time for a change and there’s a good alternative. Another 22% want change but aren’t convinced there’s a viable option.
So where does that leave things?
The Liberals are still in a strong position. They have a clear lead, decent approval numbers, and an issue environment that still works in their favour. But the momentum they had earlier in the month doesn’t look like it’s building right now.
For the Conservatives, this is a bit of a reset. Their numbers aren’t getting worse, and they’ve recovered slightly. But there’s still no clear evidence of a breakthrough.
If you zoom out, this looks like a stable equilibrium. The Liberals ahead, the Conservatives trailing, and a public that isn’t in a hurry to dramatically change course.
You can see the full poll release here.