In his Substack post, Brooks tied his support for an Iranian oil embargo directly to the decision not to fully block Russian barrels, saying that choice helped keep Moscow’s war machine supplied.
Brooks’ argument hinges on the idea that oil receipts are central to how these governments operate, and that sanctions without a hard stop on energy exports fail to change behavior.
Why Ignoring Iranian Oil Exports Is Dangerous
The embargo push is framed as a lesson from Ukraine: Brooks said the West never truly shut down Russia’s oil flows, and he believes a tougher stance earlier could have reduced the damage in Ukraine.
In his market-focused commentary earlier in the week, Brooks contrasted Monday’s jump in Brent crude—more than 7%—with the roughly 2% move on Feb. 24, 2022, the day Russia invaded Ukraine.
He also pointed to the plumbing of global supply as the reason an Iran-related disruption can hit harder, with Russia exporting about 7 million barrels per day while roughly 20 million barrels move through the Strait of Hormuz each day.
As Brooks noted according to X, his embargo stance is rooted in the view that continuing to allow oil cash to circulate keeps pressure off regimes that rely on energy income.
How Recent Oil Shocks Are Underestimated
Brooks has criticized the reflex to wave off sudden price moves, writing that some commentary avoids acknowledging surprise because it can sound like analysts missed what was coming.
He described Monday’s tape as defensive rather than calm, calling it a risk-off setup and writing that markets were “trading Iran like it’s a big shock — not a little one.”
Cross-asset signals he flagged were mixed but cautious: the S&P 500 finished flat on Monday versus a roughly 2% gain on invasion day in 2022, while gold rose and the dollar strengthened versus both G10 and emerging-market currencies.
By Tuesday, he pointed to additional commodity confirmation, with WTI crude nearing $81 a barrel and coal up more than 8%, based on Trading Economics data.
Currency Dynamics Impacting Global Trade
Such fluctuations in the dollar’s value can create winners and losers in various markets, with a weaker dollar favoring international exposure and large-cap U.S. stocks with substantial overseas revenue. This backdrop of currency volatility complements Brooks’ argument for a more stringent energy embargo against Iran, as ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to influence market sentiment.
The Surprising Scale Of Middle Eastern Flows
Brooks’ supply math centers on chokepoint exposure, with the Strait of Hormuz acting as a daily conduit for volumes that dwarf many single-country export totals.
That scale is part of why he argues an Iranian oil embargo would not be a niche policy step, but a move with immediate implications for energy pricing and broader risk appetite.