Find winning stocks in any market cycle. Join 7 million investors using Simply Wall St’s investing ideas for FREE.
PENN Entertainment (PENN) has drawn investor attention after a mixed stretch, with the share price around $13.77, a loss of about 12% over the past month and roughly 8% over the past 3 months.
See our latest analysis for PENN Entertainment.
Looking beyond the recent pullback, PENN’s 1 day share price return of 5.49% decline and weaker year to date share price return of 7.27% decline sit alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of 18.62% decline, pointing to fading momentum as investors reassess both growth prospects and risk around the current US$13.77 share price.
If PENN’s recent moves have you thinking about where else growth and volatility might show up next, it could be worth scanning 20 top founder-led companies
With PENN trading around US$13.77, a value score of 6, an intrinsic discount flag and a discount of roughly 39% to the analyst price target, the key question is whether this is a mispricing or if the market already reflects the company’s future growth potential.
Against PENN’s last close of $13.77, the leading narrative pegs fair value far higher at $79.65, setting up a wide gap between market price and narrative expectations.
PENN’s stock has been a disaster for years. EV is way down. With fundamentals of its casinos solid, write offs of mistakes behind them, and valuation at a nadir, the opportunity for a major upside breakout is apparent. The Company is sizable, $7 billion in revenues and $1.7 billion in EBITDAR, its not going away. In fact, a hostile bid or management takedown is not impossible. Assets are top notch, even if management is not. Expect a major upswing in earnings in 2026 with an accompanying share price rise. I place fair value at about $30 per share……..That would be 7 times 2027 EBITDA to Enterprise Value
Curious what sits behind that punchy valuation call and the projected earnings shift according to Frosty555? The narrative leans on revenue growth, margin repair and a future earnings multiple that is usually reserved for much higher rated names, all wired into a discounted cash flow style view that pushes fair value far above today’s price.
Result: Fair Value of $79.65 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are clear risks, including PENN’s recent 18.62% 1-year total return decline and current net income loss of US$843.1 million, which may limit a quick rerating.