Following the expulsion of hundreds of diplomats from Europe, Russian intelligence has shifted from professional espionage to using vulnerable recruits for low-level sabotage and disruptive operations. This “disposable” network, operating with minimal training, focuses on creating panic, exploiting social divisions, and undermining support for Ukraine.
According to Politico Europe report, the shift reflects the erosion of Russia’s traditional intelligence infrastructure after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2024, European countries had expelled about 600 Russian diplomats. The result has been a move away from trained officers operating under diplomatic cover and toward the recruitment of refugees, migrants, students, and other groups for intelligence, sabotage, and influence operations inside NATO countries.
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How recruitment works
The case of “Ivan,” a 21-year-old Moscow student, shows how the system operates.
He was detained at an airport, where FSB officers reportedly used personal details — including debts and information about his family — to identify pressure points. He was then given a choice: cooperate or face up to 15 years in prison on extremism charges.
What followed was not dramatic spy tradecraft, but steady control. Over more than two years, handlers mixed casual contact and holiday greetings with threats, including warnings not to make them “chase” him.
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They wanted detailed information on Russian opposition figures in exile in Europe, including the names of foreign officials, teachers, and others helping dissidents settle abroad.
Why Moscow uses this model
Experts say the shift serves more than one purpose.
One aim is infiltration: keeping tabs on exile groups and making sure they do not develop into a serious political threat.
The other is destabilization. Even when such recruits are exposed or arrested, the damage can still work in Moscow’s favor by fueling suspicion inside exile communities and between activists and European governments.
That makes the system effective in a different way. It is cheaper than traditional espionage, harder to track, and often aimed less at stealing major state secrets than at spreading fear, eroding trust, and weakening support for Ukraine.
A win-win for the Kremlin
As security analyst Andrei Soldatov argues, these recruits are treated as expendable. If they succeed, Russia gets intelligence. If they are caught, they can still deepen paranoia and division among Kremlin critics abroad.
Either way, for Moscow, the operation may still count as a success.