2026 World Cup: Canada benefits from Italy’s continued fall from soccer grace but stern Bosnia and Herzegovina test awaits in first match on home soil

TORONTO — It was a beautiful, clear day on Monday in Toronto, followed by heavy rain and thunder on Tuesday, then more clear skies with the sun shining bright on Wednesday morning.

In three days, the weather summed up what Canadian soccer fans have experienced over the past several months when contemplating the men’s national team’s chances at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

There was the joy of being a Pot 1 team and thereby avoiding some of the top-ranked nations in the world like reigning world champions Argentina and a dominant France in the Kylian Mbappe era that has played the last two World Cup finals — winning in 2018.

After being slotted with Switzerland and Qatar, though, there was a sense of wariness when the final team was revealed to come from a European playoff qualifier that featured Italy. The possibility of the four-time champions slotting into Canada’s group would have certainly made the path to the next round that much more difficult. The draw was in December and so everyone involved had plenty of time to contemplate that matchup.

On Monday, however, Italy faltered at the final hurdle. A determined Bosnia and Herzegovina, playing in front of their home fans, pulled off the upset with a penalty shootout win, advancing to the World Cup for the second time in its history while Italy were resigned to a third straight absence at the world’s biggest sporting event.

Bosnia & Herzegovina will be difficult, but lack Italy’s pedigree

There is no doubt that Italy have suffered a calamitous fall from grace. Since last winning the World Cup in 2006, the Azzurri were knocked out in the group stage of the 2010 and 2014 editions and have now failed to qualify altogether for 2018, 2022, and 2026.

World class attacking talents of Roberto Baggio, Francesco Totti, and Alessandro Del Piero’s ilk seem to have gone extinct in Italy. Still, their history and pedigree at major tournaments would have made them a daunting opponent.

Despite their recent struggles, they still found a way to win the 2020 European Championships — exhibiting exactly the grit and guile that made them winners several times before. When they are at a tournament, they are treated with the utmost respect.

But now they are not, while Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is. Canada head coach Jesse Marsch has no intention of taking them lightly and acknowledged the difficulty his team will face in its opening match against BiH on June 12 at BMO Field. Having watched BiH captain and former Manchester City star Edin Džeko dedicate the win over Italy to a group of friends who were killed in a bombing when they were young, Marsch understood the weight and pride BiH players will carry when they step onto the pitch in Toronto.

“These kids grew up in a war-torn country and a lot of them were lucky to escape,” Marsch said after Canada drew 0-0 against Tunisia on Tuesday night. “These young men have been through a lot in life and I think it really served them well in the last week when they were in difficult situations…

“I have a lot of respect for what Bosnia has achieved, what those people have been through, what those players have been through. I’m happy for them to be at the World Cup and I know we’re in for a really difficult first match.”

That’s quite a lot of respect shown for the Balkan nation, and is in stark contrast to when John Herdman caused a firestorm at the World Cup when he was captured in a post-match team huddle saying, “We’re gonna go and eff Croatia” to try and rally his team after getting defeated by Belgium.

Now, one was in the heat of what was supposed to be a private moment with his team after a match and the other at a press conference, but Marsch’s words are exactly the tone and tenor that will be required with all eyes and ears ever-present at the World Cup.

How does Canada’s World Cup outlook change?

It can both be true that Canada still has a serious challenge ahead and that the realm of possibilities has expanded.

After Tuesday’s matches, Italy ranks 12th in the official FIFA rankings while BiH is 65th. Throw in that Italy has won the tournament four times and there is certainly plenty of reason to understand why the Azzurri — with what would likely be overwhelming crowd support in Toronto — would present a more formidable challenge.

Marsch has stated several times that Canada’s goal for the group stage, despite having never earned a single point previously, is to finish atop the standings. That would have felt all the more difficult with Italy present but now you can at least see the theory.

With what should be an amped up crowd in excess of 45,000 at a BMO Field that will be renamed Toronto Stadium for the event, taking on a side that is now the lowest-ranked nation in the group and the sixth-lowest ranked team in the competition, Canada will be favoured to produce a win.

Next will be Qatar on June 18, a match that had already been viewed as very winnable. If Canada can come away with maximum points in its opening two fixtures — before their final group stage match vs. the Swiss on June 24 — it opens the door to a first-place finish in Group B and an opportunity to play a Round of 32 match in Vancouver.

Even if Marsch’s dream of topping the group is shooting for the moon, Canada landing on a star by finishing in second place or one of the eight best third-place teams that advance to the Round of 32 would still be a prideful accomplishment that feels all the more within reach.

Everything feels more real now with Canada’s first match of the tournament in place. It’s a pretty big picture to paint for those of us on the outside but the team’s focus come the World Cup will be squarely on Bosnia and Herzegovina. Possibilities, permutations, combinations will all stem from how that first match unfolds, for which Canada fully expects to be decided by the details.

“Every game is going to be a war,” goalkeeper Maxime Crépeau said. “Every game is going to be so tight. Small margins will make the difference. One false step will make a difference in those games so I think, for us, our goal is to win every single game that we are going into. That’s our mentality and we need to approach it this way.”