Spain’s tourism sector has sounded the alarm over a potential sharp decline in American visitors after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened in March 2026 to sever all trade with Spain, following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s refusal to allow U.S. forces to use jointly operated military bases at Rota and Morón for strikes on Iran.
The United States is Spain’s largest non-European source market, with 4.26 million Americans visiting in 2024 — spending an estimated €10.2 billion, or 7.6% of all international tourist spending in the country. Industry leaders warn that any significant drop in American arrivals would have outsized consequences for the sector, given that U.S. visitors spend well above the international average.
The diplomatic rupture has collided with a market that was already showing signs of strain. Research from CaixaBank Research shows that U.S. tourist spending growth in Spain had decelerated sharply before Trump’s threat was issued — falling from over 23% year-on-year in early 2024 to 5.6% by mid-2025. Booking data from aviation consultancy Cirium, cited by Spanish media outlet Xataka, shows U.S.-to-Europe flight reservations for the July 2025–July 2026 period fell 11.19% year-on-year, a steeper drop than projections made at the start of 2026 had anticipated.
A High-Value Market Under Threat
The scale of what Spain stands to lose is significant. The average American tourist in Spain spends €2,296 per stay and €294 per day, with a mean length of stay of 7.8 nights — well above the overall international visitor average of €1,514 per trip and €167 per day. In non-coastal urban destinations, American tourists account for around 15% of total tourism spending, according to CaixaBank Research, making those areas particularly exposed to any slowdown. Spain received a record 4.26 million U.S. visitors in 2024, an 11% rise from the previous year, making the United States the sixth-largest overall source market and by far the most important outside Europe.
The diplomatic fallout has intensified those concerns. After Sánchez’s refusal to authorise use of the Rota and Morón bases, Trump told reporters at the White House: “Spain has absolutely nothing we need, other than great people, but they don’t have great leadership.” He added: “We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don’t want anything to do with Spain.” The Spanish government held firm. In a televised address, Sánchez responded: “We will not be complicit in something that is bad for the world and contrary to our values and interests simply out of fear of reprisals from someone.” The position of the government, Sánchez said, could be summarised in three words: “No to war.”
“In the sector we are very worried because American tourism is very important for Spain,” said Carlos Garrido, President, Confederación Española de Agencias de Viajes (CEAV). Garrido warned that Trump’s rhetoric risks translating into reduced bookings even before any formal trade measures take effect, as American public opinion absorbs the bilateral tensions and reconsiders European travel plans.
Booking Declines and a Worsening Outlook
Booking data already points to deterioration. Juan Molas, president of the Mesa del Turismo — Spain’s main tourism industry body — reported a 16% decline in U.S. bookings to Spain. The drop was notable because it ran counter to a general increase in American reservations to other European destinations at the same time. Earlier in 2025, data from marketing firm Affilired showed advance travel bookings from the United States had fallen 33.6% in February, a reading the company attributed to “economic and political uncertainty affecting tourism.” CaixaBank Research estimated that the slowdown in U.S. tourism could subtract up to 1 percentage point from Spain’s tourism GDP growth — a significant drag in a year when the sector had been projected to grow at 2.7%.
The 27 direct air routes connecting the United States and Spain in 2026 — linking 13 U.S. cities with six Spanish cities — represent a record level of connectivity that took years to build and could take much longer to restore if demand falls. Spain’s tourism industry lobby Exceltur has urged the government to monitor the commercial policy fallout closely, warning that a good tourism year “is now contingent on how geopolitical events unfold.” The group called for accelerating structural reforms to strengthen the sector’s resilience.
The broader backdrop is not favourable. Foreign tourism to the United States fell 5.4% in 2025, as Trump administration immigration and trade policies deterred visitors globally — a decline that academics at Toronto Metropolitan University have described as a structural “Trump slump.” Spanish travellers to the U.S. fell 25% in March 2025, one of the sharpest drops among European source markets. Meanwhile, Cirium data shows bookings from the U.S. to Frankfurt fell 26.8% and to London 11.31% year-on-year, suggesting a broad American retreat from transatlantic travel rather than a Spain-specific reaction.
Spain’s government and industry have identified one partial offset: the same geopolitical instability driving the US-Spain rift is redirecting tourists away from Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean hubs toward Western Mediterranean destinations including Spain. Tourism Minister Jordi Hereu noted that demand shifts from the United Kingdom, China, and Germany are moving in Spain’s favour as travellers seek alternatives to disrupted routes through the Middle East. Whether those redirected flows are sufficient to compensate for a sustained decline in the highest-spending non-European market remains the central uncertainty facing the sector as the 2026 summer season approaches.