Oil rises above $110 as Trump deadline looms for Iran to reopen strait – business live | Business

Key events

UK construction activity tumbles

Construction activity in the UK has tumbled as the industry struggles to cushion the blows from the war in the Middle East and a persistently weak economy, according to a survey.

Work starting on site declined by 17% in the three months to March compared with the fourth quarter of last year, and was 18% below 2025 levels, according to Glenigan’s latest construction index.

The US-Israel war on Iran started at the end of February and shows no sign of coming to an end any time soon, resulting in considerable uncertainty for the construction sector.

Residential construction dropped by 13% quarter on quarter, and was down 30% year on year, also hit by confusion around planning policy and a weak economy.

Non-residential project starts fell by 15% on the quarter, and by 5% on the year. Offices bucked the trend, with increases in new projects starting on site.

The index covers all underlying projects with a value of £100m or less. It highlights the serious challenges facing the UK construction sector, a “severely disrupted supply chain and unprecedented market volatility”.

Glenigan’s Allan Wilen said:

double quotation markAll three main verticals: housing, non-residential buildings and civil engineering are considerably lower than a year ago and on the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The sector is fighting on all fronts, home and abroad. Particularly, the Iran war will depress activity further near-term as private developers and house purchasers delay investment decisions due to fears of higher than anticipated interest rates, rising material costs, spiralling energy costs and stalled economic growth. It will have a knock-on effect on the non-residential verticals which, although many have ring-fenced funding, will no doubt be putting activity on hold to ensure they don’t waste budgets whilst rates spike.

ShareIntroduction: Oil rises above $110 as Trump deadline looms for Iran to reopen strait

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Oil prices continued to climb on Tuesday above $110 a barrel amid a deadline imposed by Donald Trump for Iran to open the strait of Hormuz or be “taken out,” with the US president threatening to order attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges.

He threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it does not meet his deadline of Tuesday 8pm ET (1am BST Wednesday) to reopen the strait, a key shipping route. In response to a US proposal through mediator Pakistan, Tehran rejected a ceasefire and insisted on a permanent end to the war.

Brent crude rose 1.1% to $111.01 a barrel, while New York light crude hit $115.3 a barrrel, up 2.6%.

Asian stock markets were mostly higher, with Japan’s Nikkei rising 0.19% and South Korea’s Kospi up 1.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell by 0.7%.

The war in the Middle East will lead to higher inflation and slower global ​growth, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned, ahead of the lender’s latest forecast next week.

The war has triggered the worst-ever disruption in global energy supply, with millions of barrels of oil production shuttered due to Iran’s effective blockage of the strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas pass in normal times. Even if the conflict is swiftly resolved, the IMF is set to reduce its forecast for economic growth and lift its outlook for inflation, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, told Reuters.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at the trading platform Capital.com, said:

double quotation markThe markets are back on a Trump-imposed countdown clock. To use a sporting analogy, it’s red time, and the result could go either way. Like a fortnight ago when the first threats from the Trump administration to attack Iranian power plants and other infrastructure were made, the markets are plonked at a crossroad, facing a binary outcome, at least in the short term.

Either the attacks happen, marking a possibly catastrophic escalation where regional energy assets and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf is considered fair game. In such an instance, the energy complex jumps, pushing the US Dollar and global yields higher, and equities and non-yielders like gold lower. Or there’s a backdown, even better, a ceasefire, and the markets stage an epic relief rally, where a plunge in oil takes yields and the US Dollar with it, and equities and gold rip.

Despite some hopeful headlines yesterday, most of the news paints a grim picture of how things are unfolding roughly 27 hours after Trump’s deadline. President Trump’s rhetoric is hawkish and increasingly unhinged and the Iranians remain obstinate, with reports suggesting both sides remain worlds apart on the terms of a ceasefire, especially as it pertains to the Strait of Hormuz. Neither would benefit from an escalation.

New car sales in the UK climbed by around 6% in March – usually the biggest month for vehicle registrations, according to preliminary industry data.

Sales of battery electric vehicles reached a record high, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said. However, their market share of 23% is still below the government-mandated target of 33% for this year.

The industry has called for an urgent review of the UK’s electric vehicle transition, as surging gas prices driven by war in the Middle East have lifted electricity rates.

The Agenda

• 8.45am-9am BST: Italy, France, Germany, eurozone S&P Global PMIs (final) for March

• 9am BST: UK new car sales for March

• 9.30am BST: UK S&P Global PMI for March

• 1.30pm BST: US durable goods for February

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Updated at 03.00 EDT