Photo: Vadim Vlasceanu / Pexels
This dynamic is especially visible in the cases of Serbia and Croatia, whose relations with the current government in Budapest have evolved in distinctly different ways in recent years.
The Serbian Perspective: A Strategic Alliance
For Serbia, the relevance of Hungary’s elections is direct and stems from the high level of political and economic interdependence between the two countries. The relationship between Aleksandar Vučić and Viktor Orbán constitutes a leader-driven political alignment, serving as a central axis of cooperation encompassing both political coordination and the development of joint infrastructure projects.
The energy sector is of particular importance, with Serbia and Hungary closely linked through energy and critical infrastructure, including the Balkan Stream gas pipeline, as well as cooperation aimed at ensuring the stability of supply. In the context of growing security concerns surrounding critical infrastructure in the region, these issues acquire strategic significance for regional stability.
The political and societal dimension is also relevant, particularly cooperation involving the Hungarian minority in Vojvodina, which serves as an important channel of influence in bilateral relations. In this context, Hungary’s elections are perceived in Belgrade as a factor that may affect the durability of the current model of cooperation. Potential political changes in Budapest could translate into shifts in how Serbia articulates its interests at the European level, as well as in the dynamics of its relations with EU institutions.
The Croatian Perspective: Institutional Assertiveness
In Croatia’s case, the significance of Hungary’s elections is more indirect and primarily linked to energy policy and control over strategic infrastructure. Croatian–Hungarian relations are shaped, among other factors, by disputes over energy asset management (including the INA–MOL case) and the role of the JANAF pipeline, which—amid constraints on supplies from the East—is gaining importance as an alternative transport route for Central Europe.
Croatia has been consistently strengthening its position as a regional energy hub, relying on energy infrastructure and access to alternative sources, including the LNG terminal on the island of Krk. In this context, potential political changes in Hungary may influence both the direction and dynamics of regional cooperation. At the same time, as an EU member state, Croatia remains firmly anchored within the framework of common EU policies, which lends its actions a more institutional than bilateral character.
Conclusion
A shift in Hungary’s political landscape would require Serbia to adjust its current model of regional cooperation, which is largely based on close political coordination and personalised leadership ties. In this sense, a reorientation in Budapest could affect how Belgrade articulates its interests at the European level and reshape the dynamics of its engagement with EU institutions, potentially reducing the scope of Hungary’s support in negotiation processes.
For Croatia, the outcome of Hungary’s elections serves as an important reference point for the future shape of regional cooperation in the energy sector, particularly in terms of Hungary’s alignment with EU policy directions.
More broadly, Hungary’s elections illustrate how political changes in Central and Eastern Europe extend beyond domestic politics, influencing the structure of regional relations. This dynamic reflects the coexistence of two parallel logics of regional order: personalised alliance-building on the one hand, and institutional anchoring within the EU framework on the other.
The opinion expressed in the article represents the author’s private views, which are an integral part of their individual position.
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