(TNND) — Ukraine is enduring new waves of intense Russian drone and missile attacks, at a time when the war in Iran may be stealing the world’s attention.
But Ukraine’s European allies are stepping up their weapons assistance, vowing to keep up their support as the war rages through its fifth year.
“We cannot lose focus on Ukraine, even with the many pressing security challenges we face,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said this week at a meeting in Berlin on Ukraine’s defense.
Rutte warned that Russia isn’t letting up, but he said Russia is struggling on the battlefield.
“A strong Ukraine today, and a strong Ukraine for the future, is how Russian aggression can be stopped,” Rutte said. “So, we need to dig deep and continue to provide the crucial support that Ukraine needs, because Ukraine’s security is our security.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spent part of the week meeting with European allies in pursuit of more arms deals. And he applauded new agreements with Germany, Norway, and Italy to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses.
The U.K., meanwhile, announced its biggest-ever drone package for Ukraine, some 120,000 drones strong.
But Russia is warning European countries that their weapons facilities could be targeted for supporting Ukraine.
And Zelenskyy, speaking at a ceremony in the Netherlands, talked about the death and destruction resulting from waves of Russian drones and missiles pounding Ukraine over the last couple of days.
“Today in Ukraine is another very hard day, really hard night,” Zelenskyy said. “The day after a massive Russian attack. In just one night, there were nearly 300 attack drones, 19 ballistic missiles, as well as cruise missiles. Air raid sirens sounded across many, many of our cities.”
The latest round of attacks on civilian areas reportedly killed at least 16 Ukrainians and wounded more than 100.
European Council President António Costa pledged “steadfast support for Ukraine” while reacting in a social media post to “yet another horrendous attack against civilian targets.”
Costa said the EU will continue to increase the pressure on Russia.
Russia controls about a fifth of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas that Russia seized before its February 2022 invasion.
But Russian foreign policy expert Mark N. Katz said the war’s dynamics are turning against Russia.
Ukrainians are motivated to keep fighting, Russian President Vladimir Putin miscalculated Europe’s resolve to support Ukraine, and Ukrainians have actually taken back some territory, Katz said.
“The Russians may have been able to convince themselves prior to this year that they would eventually win,” Katz said. “I’m not sure that they, that they’re as confident now.”
Russian offensives are yielding smaller gains at higher cost, said Katz, a professor emeritus of government and politics at George Mason University.
“What we’ve seen, I think, in the past couple of months is that there has appeared to be a real change in the war’s dynamic in Ukraine, that the Russian offensives are becoming harder and harder. In other words, they’re having to sacrifice more and more men for smaller and smaller gains,” he said.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has “gotten quite good” at attacking distant Russian targets with weaponized drones, Katz said.
Ukraine is targeting military and economic infrastructure inside Russia, while Russians aren’t shy about hitting civilian targets, Katz said.
Russia is finding it harder to find recruits, but Putin risks public backlash if he starts forcing Russians, especially those in Moscow and St. Petersburg, into the army.
“Public opinion polls inside of Russia show that in fact, a lot more Russians than we would like support Putin in his war with Ukraine, that they are basically behind him on this, provided that they themselves don’t have to do the fighting,” Katz said.
Katz said Russia’s new threats against other European countries are a serious but risky move by Putin in an attempt to scare off support for Ukraine.
The Iran war may be overshadowing the Ukraine war in Western press coverage, but it’s the Ukraine war that ranks as most important for European countries, Katz said.
Europeans think the Iran war is distracting American attention away from what they see as the priority, which is defending Ukraine, he said.
“Europeans do not like the Iranian government, but they don’t really see it as an immediate threat to them,” Katz said.
Whether the U.S. has enough weapons capacity to also support Ukraine, given its focus on Iran, is a “technical question,” Katz said.
“It’s a question of, all right, can Lockheed Martin run factories 24 hours a day, three shifts, as opposed to whatever they’re doing now?” Katz said. “Is money going to be spent on this? And, it’s definitely a production capacity (issue).”