A sudden surge for Radev’s new coalition could reshape Bulgaria’s fragmented politics. Analysts warn that coalition building may still fuel instability and repeat elections.
On Sunday, Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections – the eighth in the last five years. Twenty-four parties and coalitions are participating, but the main contender has become the coalition of former president and eurosceptic Rumen Radev, “Progressive Bulgaria.” He promises to fight corruption and to establish dialogue with Russia, but experts do not expect bold actions.
According to polls, “Progressive Bulgaria” could receive 30–40% of the votes – more than any other force, although it appeared only a few weeks before the elections. Along with it, at least four parties have real chances of entering the parliament: GERB, DPS, “Revival” and BSP.
The current elections have ended the political crisis of late 2025: protests against the 2026 budget, the resignation of the government, and the appointment of a technical cabinet; Bulgaria’s politics in recent years remains fragmented – no force has been able to entrench itself in power.
There really is a long-standing deficit of trust in politicians in Bulgaria and a deficit of strong politicians… And it is precisely this that underpins such frequent changes of prime ministers.
– Oleh Bondarenko
From a political perspective, Radev is often seen as a potential “new Orban” due to his euro-sceptic and pro-Russian tendencies, but analysts emphasize the limited resources for long-term rebuilding of the country. Veselin Stoynev notes:
“I suppose that Radev, in a sense, will try to become the “new Orban,” but only in the part of a more pro-Russian orientation. At the same time, he does not have the resources to build such a model. Orban built his system over many years, which requires enormous resources and the de facto capture of the state, against which Radev, at least in words, opposes.”
– Veselin Stoynev
Experts also note the absence of direct Russian interference, but pro-Russian narratives are actively used in the campaign. Forecasts suggest that if Radev does not gain a parliamentary majority, he will have to seek a coalition or a minority government, increasing the risk of instability and repeated elections. Still, Bulgaria may again face a choice between a pro-Western orientation and seeking compromises with those who lean toward closer ties with Russia.
Prospects and risks of the elections
After the vote, the country could find itself confronted with a difficult distribution of power: either forming a stable coalition capable of delivering reforms, or recurrent crises in case of a lack of support from the parliament. Experts emphasize the importance of public trust and the readiness of the new government to act consistently within Bulgaria’s European development vector. The result of the vote will show which path the country will take next – toward a more pro-Western orientation or toward compromises that will include various foreign-policy emphases.
In short, the future course of Bulgaria will depend on whether political forces can agree on common priorities and form a government able to weather the challenges of time without recurring crises. The main thing is to preserve consensus on integration into the EU and NATO and to ensure the stability needed for economic development and internal stability.