Hungary’s election authority finished counting mail-in ballots and votes cast at overseas polling stations after the 12 April election on Friday evening. With 99 per cent processed, the Tisza Party flipped three additional single-member constituencies, securing 140 mandates in the 199-seat parliament.
Losing three more districts, the election setback of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz–KDNP deepened further, as its number of mandates fell to 53—four fewer than the united opposition secured in 2022. All three constituencies that Tisza flipped after the mail-in votes were counted had been Fidesz strongholds for years, with their candidates winning with more than 60 per cent of the vote in 2022. Each also carries symbolic significance.
By-Election Illusion — Tolna 02
Tolna 02 (Dombóvár) was won by Tisza candidate Gábor Szijjártó with 46.58 per cent of the vote, defeating Fidesz–KDNP MP Krisztina Csibi, who had won the by-election last year by a wide margin, securing more than 63 per cent.
The by-election was held in January 2025 following the sudden death of State Secretary Árpád János Potápi, and saw an extremely low turnout of just 32.8 per cent—compared to 76 per cent in the current vote. Tisza did not field a candidate, as in other by-elections over the past two years. The party argued that its sole focus was the parliamentary election, framing the decision as strategic: a potential defeat in a lower-stakes contest risked demoralizing voters, while a victory would bring limited political gain.
Fidesz, by contrast, won eight by-elections over the past two years, presenting each victory as evidence of sustained support, despite polling data from various institutes showing Tisza ahead, in some cases by a wide margin.
‘The emphasis placed on these by-election victories partly contributed to the formation of an echo chamber’
The emphasis placed on these by-election victories partly contributed to the formation of an echo chamber, creating an alternative perception of reality around the governing parties, their leadership, and their voters—reinforced, as outgoing Minister heading the Prime Minister’s Office Gergely Gulyás acknowledged, by misleading and inaccurate polling from aligned pollsters that created the false impression of sufficient support for an electoral victory.
Tolna 02 had been a Fidesz–KDNP stronghold since 2014, with its electoral demography also favouring the governing alliance: a high proportion of pensioners, predominantly rural villages and small towns, and an electorate more economically dependent on the state. Securing districts like this was crucial for Tisza’s supermajority, and the results suggest that, after 16 years, Fidesz’s rural dominance has been significantly weakened.
According to some analysts, this shift can be attributed to Péter Magyar’s campaign strategy, which focused on sustained rural presence and emphasized economic difficulties and rising cost-of-living—issues that strongly resonated with a demographic that felt first-hand the negative consequences of four years of economic stagnation in Hungary.
Russia Dilemma — Tolna 03
Tolna 03 (Paks) is another symbolic loss for Fidesz–KDNP. It is home to one of the most important strategic investments of Viktor Orbán’s 16 years in power: the expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant (Paks II).
Despite this, Fidesz–KDNP candidate János Süli, who served as minister responsible for the Paks II project between 2017 and 2022, lost to Tisza candidate Tamás Cseh. Süli had won the district in 2022 by a margin of more than 30 percentage points.
With Tisza’s supermajority, the future of Paks II is uncertain. Magyar said on Monday that a comprehensive review of the project would be conducted, emphasizing that contracts would be renegotiated and, if necessary, amended or even terminated—particularly with regard to costs and conditions.
The project has faced criticism from Western Europe due to Russian involvement in both technology and financing. The existing plant currently provides around one-third of Hungary’s electricity consumption, a figure expected to rise significantly once the expansion is completed.
Speaking on Tuesday, Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev expressed optimism that the project would continue under Hungary’s new leadership. Tisza framed the election as a choice between Europe and Russia, pointing to what it described as increasingly uncomfortably close ties between the Orbán government and Moscow. The party also promised to achieve full independence from Russian energy after 2035.
Lost Immunity — Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg 06
Szabolcs 06 (Nyírbátor) was one of the most closely watched constituencies nationwide, and its outcome carried significant stakes. Fidesz–KDNP candidate Miklós Simon, who had held the seat since 2014 and previously served as mayor in the highly rural district, lost his mandate to Tisza candidate Tímea Barna-Szabó.
With the loss of his seat, Simon also lost parliamentary immunity, which could allow a long-standing criminal case against him to resume. The case dates back to the early 2000s, when Simon, then mayor of Nyírbogát, was suspected of involvement in the misuse of state funds. Others involved were later convicted, but proceedings against Simon were suspended after parliament declined to lift his immunity in 2008. According to the Office of the Prosecutor General, the case could now be reopened.
‘Simon…lost parliamentary immunity, which could allow a long-standing criminal case against him to resume’
Simon’s profile and the case itself aligned closely with Tisza’s campaign focus on accountability and anti-corruption, serving as a concrete example of a long-stalled investigation shielded by parliamentary immunity. During the campaign, he was also accused of voter intimidation through economic and social pressure, making him a clear example of the ‘Fidesz local strongman’ that Tisza and Magyar have pledged to hold accountable.
Taken together, these three constituencies illustrate key factors behind Fidesz–KDNP’s defeat, each pointing to an area requiring fundamental change if the party is to renew itself: dismantling the misleading echo chamber, re-engaging with rural Hungary, and addressing allegations of corruption.
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