Gold defies traditional headwinds, surging to a new high. Geopolitical tensions and a potential Basel III reclassification as an HQLA underpin bullish long-term outlooks from major banks.
Gold prices surged to a fresh 52-week high of 410.91 euros last week, marking a fourth consecutive weekly gain. This advance came despite a stronger US dollar and rising bond yields, two traditional headwinds for the precious metal, showcasing a surprising resilience.
The immediate catalyst was geopolitical news from the Strait of Hormuz. Reports that the critical waterway would remain open during a ten-day ceasefire sent oil prices plummeting by over ten percent. While this reduced near-term inflationary pressure—typically a negative for gold—the metal still climbed more than one percent on Thursday. Analysts point to a concurrent weakening in the US dollar index to a multi-week low, which made dollar-priced gold cheaper for international buyers, as a key offsetting factor. Furthermore, US President Trump’s insistence on maintaining a naval blockade “at full strength” underscored the fragility of the situation, preventing a full retreat of safe-haven flows.
Beyond daily headlines, a structural shift with profound long-term implications is quietly unfolding. In late March, the World Gold Council and the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) launched a joint initiative to have gold classified as a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) under Basel III banking rules. The goal is inclusion in the Level 1 category, reserved for the most liquid financial assets. Currently, gold carries an 85% Risk Sensitivity Factor (RSF) and is excluded from regulatory liquidity buffers. A successful reclassification would allow institutional investors, including banks, to count gold more significantly toward their mandatory reserves, potentially unlocking substantial and sustained new demand.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Goldpreis LBMA?
From a technical perspective, the picture is mixed. Gold is trading above its middle Bollinger Band but faces a key resistance zone between $4,821 and $4,882. The 50-day moving average, around $4,980, acts as a significant ceiling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 58, indicating neutral momentum. Key support levels are seen at $4,761 and $4,701, with further support at the first-quarter closing price near $4,608 and the zone around $4,538.
Market activity will resume on Tuesday, April 21st, following the Easter holiday closure. The coming week brings a slate of US economic data, including ADP employment figures on Tuesday, PMI numbers and weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations report on Friday. Markets are pricing in a 99.5% probability of an unchanged Federal Reserve rate, which may cap near-term upside momentum.
Major financial institutions maintain bullish outlooks. State Street Global Advisors reaffirms its year-end target range of $4,750 to $5,500, viewing gold in the middle of a bull market cycle. Goldman Sachs holds a $5,400 year-end target. The LBMA consensus forecasts an average price of nearly $4,742 for 2026, approximately 38% above last year’s average. Analysts also note that sustained central bank buying from nations like China, India, and Russia provides a foundational support. UBS anticipates global central bank purchases could reach 850 tonnes this year, enough to absorb potential selling pressure from Western institutions. Should the anticipated new Fed Chair, Warsh, adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, it could accelerate the next upward move for gold.
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Goldpreis LBMA Stock: New Analysis – 19 April
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