Today’s geopolitical problems have been intensified by AI, which is not merely a tool for improving production efficiency but a future technology used in competition and warfare.
This has led to monopolistic markets, as the United States refuses to use Chinese technology while China refuses to use US technology.
Although this creates risk, Nonarit said it was also “good news” for investors in certain stocks that have risen sharply because consumers have no alternative.
Thailand’s foreign direct investment figures may appear strong at nearly 1 trillion baht, but a closer look shows that investment is highly concentrated. For example, capital from TikTok alone accounts for as much as 800 billion baht.
The key question for Thailand, he said, is how the country can genuinely benefit from these supply chains.
This will be difficult because Thailand must compete with China’s 31 provinces, which are far more prepared. At present, only a small number of stocks have clearly benefited from the macroeconomic picture, such as Delta, while some parts of the recovery have been driven by external factors, including governance issues in Indonesia.
Thailand must ‘stand tall’ and seize opportunities from Middle East conflict
Nonarit said Thailand should take a clear stance by “standing tall” and using strong governance as a key tool.
He said Thailand should not allow itself to become merely a “pass-through” country or a “chip broker” through transshipment, which creates no real added value.
However, turbulence in the Middle East could also create opportunities for Thailand. Countries in the region are trying to diversify away from oil resources into other businesses, such as finance and theme parks.
If instability occurs in the region, capital could flow into Asean and Thailand, especially in industries where Thailand is strong, such as food and wellness.
“The power to change the economy and listed companies lies in the hands of investors,” Nonarit said.
“Opening opportunities for investment abroad forces Thai stocks to adapt. If Thai companies fail to build good governance and fail to change, they will not be able to retain investment, because money will always move to the best destination.”