Over the last six months, the Middle East has been on edge about the chances of renewed fighting with Iran. After the US and Israel carried out strikes in June 2025, there were many reports that suggested that fighting might happen again. The June 2025 conflict was short.
However, the conflict that began on February 28 has been much longer. After a ceasefire in early April, there have been endless reports that the war will resume and that a deal is closing.
For instance, on May 23, journalist Barak Ravid posted on X that “President Trump tells me he’s ‘solid 50/50’ on Iran deal or bombing. Trump said he will meet senior advisers today to discuss the latest draft agreement and may make a decision by tomorrow.” He wrote a story for Axios about US President Donald Trump’s statement, which has left many people wondering and has left the Middle East on edge.
Back on May 19, there were headlines about how Israel was preparing for renewed fighting. Iran International noted on May 23 that “hope for a limited US-Iran agreement gained momentum Friday as regional mediators intensified efforts to stabilize the ceasefire.”
The headlines have put the Middle East on a rollercoaster of hope and concern for a while now. It’s worth recalling that even back in October 2025, a report by the European Union Center for Security Studies website was titled “Israel and Iran on the brink: Preventing the next war.”
Israeli, Iranian, and US flags are seen above US dollars in this illustrative image. (credit: SHUTTERSTOCK)Uncertainty is not good for the Middle East
The question for the Middle East, amid reports that Trump is holding talks with leaders in the Gulf, is whether states in the region can articulate a plan to go forward that isn’t simply lurching from crisis to crisis. Uncertainty is not good for the Middle East. It’s not good for any region or continent, but this region is especially susceptible.
The Middle East has already gone through decades of conflict and crisis. For instance, in the 1980s, there was a decade-long Iran-Iraq war. The Iraqi regime also committed genocide against the Kurds. In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, and this led the US to assemble a coalition to eject Saddam Hussein’s Iraq from Kuwait.
This, in turn, led to controversy about US troop deployments in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Osama Bin Laden, recently returned from years of conflict in Afghanistan against the Soviets, became more radicalized. This led him down a path of war against America that led to bombings of US embassies in Africa, and then the 9/11 attacks.
The 9/11 attacks led the US to invade Afghanistan and then Iraq. This, in turn, led to conflict in Iraq and the growth of Iranian influence in Iraq. Later, after the US left Iraq, there was the Arab Spring and also a civil war in Syria. From that war, ISIS invaded Iraq and carried out a genocide. The US deployed troops to Iraq and also to Syria to fight ISIS. Now, years later, we are dealing with the results of those conflicts, as well as the aftermath of the October 7 Hamas attacks.
The Iran war is part of the broader context of the region’s conflicts. However, it is also a challenge for many countries seeking stability in recent years. They have sought to knit their economies into the changing world order by diversifying and reaching out to India, China, and other large countries.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the uncertainty surrounding a conflict that many countries seem to have no say in causes a lot of concern in the Middle East. In the past, countries in the region have rallied with the US to prevent instability. They did this in 1990 when it was Saddam destabilizing the region and leading to uncertainty, faced off with Iran in the wake of the Islamic Revolution, and also supported the US in the war against ISIS.
Today things are different. There is concern that it is Israel and the US that are driving uncertainty. Coordination between Washington and various Gulf countries is essential. Israel is part of the Abraham Accords. However, the UAE’s denial after Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office said the Israeli leader had visited the UAE illustrates how much work remains to clarify ties.
The rollercoaster over the last few months has left the region on edge. Can the White House shift gears, or is the region destined to be like this for years?