CPK predicts its AeroExpress will become Poland’s busiest rail service

POLAND: Port Polska’s future airport site has received final sign-off, clearing the way for passenger terminal foundation works to start in September. The airport forms the central hub around which CPK’s rail programme is being built, including the planned AeroExpress link to Warszawa and Łódź. CPK says this could become Poland’s busiest rail route by 2035.

The final sign-off on the flagship airport follows more than a year of administrative and property-related wrangling around the airport site. The original location decision was issued in January of last year by Mazowieckie voivodship, covering a 2,585 ha site between the Polish capital and Łódź that includes the airport infrastructure, part of the railway hub and the surrounding road network.

The appeals against the decision have now been resolved by national Minister of Finance & Economy Andrzej Domański, allowing it to become final. CPK, which is implementing the rebranded Port Polska airport and rail programme, said this marked “the next step in the administrative process necessary to implement the Port Polska investment programme”, with work on the airport terminal now due to start in September.

AeroExpress forecast

CPK has now set out how the rail link serving the new airport is expected to reshape national passenger flows, publishing modelling that suggests the Warszawa – airport – Łódź corridor could become Poland’s busiest rail route by 2035.

AeroExpress is planned to run between eastern Warszawa, the new airport and Łódź Kaliska, with trains every 15 min between the capital and the airport and every 30 min through to Łódź. CPK says journey times would be around 22 min from central Warszawa to the airport and around 1 h 8 min from Warszawa to Łódź Fabryczna, from where trains would continue through the city’s cross-city tunnel to reach Kaliska station.

The planned route for the AeroExpress. © Port Polska

Using its Passenger Transport Model, CPK forecasts around 30,000 passengers/day would use the AeroExpress service by 2035. It also expects more than 6 million passengers/year to travel between the capital and Łódź across all train categories, including AeroExpress, high speed and inter-regional services.

That would mark a sharp increase from the 2.4 million passengers recorded on the Warszawa – Łódź route in 2024, and would put the corridor ahead of Gdańsk – Gdynia, currently Poland’s busiest rail route at around 5.4 million passengers/year. CPK forecasts that AeroExpress could carry between 10 million and 12 million passengers/year in 2035, depending on fare policy.

An airport link that serves commuters

CPK says AeroExpress is intended to serve three overlapping markets: passengers travelling to and from the new airport, daily commuters between Warszawa and Łódź, and employees working at the airport and its surrounding facilities. For commuters, CPK believes the service would become the first choice because of its frequency and affordability, with AeroExpress planned as a subsidised public service obligation rather than a commercial airport train.

The length of time it will take to move between the key stations along the link. © Port Polska

Under the proposed operating concept, AeroExpress trains would use the existing PKP PLK tunnel through Łódź serving the full set of city stops, improving rail access across the urban core. The fastest high speed services planned by CPK would use the tunnel now being built as part of the Port Polska programme, stopping only at Łódź Fabryczna before continuing towards Sieradz, Wrocław or Poznań. CPK says the fastest of these trains would connect Warszawa with Łódź in around 40 min.

‘AeroExpress trains will be the most convenient and basic means of transport between Warszawa, the new airport, and Łódź’, said Deputy Infrastructure Minister Maciej Lasek. ‘Thanks to the high speed rail infrastructure and short route, they will ensure high reliability and relieve the load on the fastest trains.’

AeroExpress can’t be ‘expensive airport train’

However, projected airport demand is expected to add a major second layer of capacity pressure, with CPK saying that airport and commuting peaks could overlap, requiring trains able to carry 400 to 600 passengers at a time.

Citing International Air Transport Association forecasts, the company pointed to the number of travellers using the new airport potentially rising from a prospective 3.3 million passengers in 2032 to more than 40 million in 2040. Usage is expected to exceed 50 million by 2050. CPK President Filip Czernicki said that the capacity of the rolling stock for the new link would need to meet ‘the airport’s needs for many years to come’.

The number of passengers projected to be using the AeroExpress route by 2035. © Port Polska

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A tender for AeroExpress rolling stock is currently underway, with CPK’s newly established rolling stock company, planning to make a further announcement later this year. The fleet is set to use conventional rolling stock capable of running at up to 200 km/h, rather than high speed trainsets. This is intended to reduce upfront purchase and operating costs. Meanwhile, trains able to operate at up to 350 km/h will run on the longer routes from Warszawa via Łódź Fabryczna to Wrocław and Poznań.

‘AeroExpress can’t be an expensive airport train’, says Piotr Rachwalski, a member of the Management Board of CPK and a transport economist by training. ‘It should combine airport transportation with daily commuting to work or school, and therefore be affordable for a wide range of passengers. The AEX offering must be attractive enough to make rail the first choice for accessing the new airport.’