A new report from the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization in the United Kingdom warns that human‑caused climate change will continue driving higher temperatures and increased rainfall over the next several years.
The report finds an 80 percent likelihood that Earth’s temperature will hit new record highs, with the global average likely to exceed 2.7°F above pre‑industrial levels—surpassing the internationally agreed‑upon safety threshold.
It also forecasts an overheating Arctic, where temperatures are expected to rise at three times the global average.
Rising global temperatures will have direct consequences for the United States, which has already experienced record heat in recent years. Alaska, in particular, is projected to face significantly increased rainfall.
Why It Matters
The report follows 2024—the hottest year ever recorded, and the first year to breach the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 3.6°F. President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the climate pact on his first day in office during his second term in January 2025.
In recent years, Americans have faced record-breaking heat waves, catastrophic flooding, stronger hurricanes, and destructive wildfires from California to the Southeast.
In 2025 alone, deadly wildfires burned across Southern California and the Southwest, while severe storms and flooding caused billions of dollars in damage nationwide. Experts say rising global temperatures are intensifying droughts, increasing wildfire risk, and fueling heavier rainfall and stronger storms, placing growing pressure on communities, infrastructure, and emergency response systems.
Key Findings from the UN Climate Report
The report reviews climate conditions over the past five years and provides regional predictions for 2026–2030.
The mean near‑surface temperature from 2026–2030 is projected to be up to 3.4 F 1 above the 1850–1900 average.
There is an 86 percent chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass the 2024 heat record.
In 2024, the global average surface temperature was 2.79F above the pre‑industrial baseline.
The record of the hottest year is likely to be shattered, and that could come as soon as 2027, according to the report’s lead author, Dr. Leon Hermanson, who said that “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.”
El Niño events are formed due to changes in winds in the Pacific Ocean. These release heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere.
The World Meteorological Organization has warned of a drought and potential wildfires in the Amazon.
How the U.S. Will Be Impacted
As global temperatures rise, the U.S. is expected to experience higher heat. This in turn could increase risks of wildfires, drought, and other extreme weather.
The report highlights several specific regional impacts:
- Alaska is projected to see increased rainfall from May to September between 2026 and 2030 due to wet anomalies.
- The Amazon is expected to face dry anomalies, raising the risk of fires and ecosystem disruption.
- Above‑average Arctic temperatures will accelerate ice melt in the northwest Pacific and Arctic regions.
- Sea‑level pressure is predicted to remain low over North America.