ject’s steady-state EBITDA in its valuation, instead of treating it as longer-dated upside. That usually happens when financing and timing risk drops, so expected profits get discounted less heavily in a model. But the new shares also dilute existing holders, which means the debate tends to move quickly from “can this be funded?” to “can this be delivered, on schedule, at the run-rate?”
Why should I care?
For markets: Stifel’s $44 target now leans harder on a US$120 million EBITDA run-rate.
Equity raises don’t just add cash; they can change what investors are willing to pay for future earnings. With Phase 1B funded and described as ready to move forward, analysts can more comfortably treat the Estonia uplift as a nearer-term, modelable earnings stream – which can support a higher valuation even after accounting for dilution. The flip side is sharper accountability: if automation or Phase 1B slips, or if the plant doesn’t reach the expected run-rate, the stock can reprice faster because those assumptions are now explicit in the target framework.