MACOM Technology Solutions Stock To $254?

MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) stock has fallen by 11.0% in less than a month, from $409.68 on 26th May, 2026, to $364.64 now. What comes next? We think that the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in the context of the stock’s Very High valuation, suggests the possibility of further downside. A price of $254 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell MACOM Technology Solutions Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.

So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on MTSI stock to help you make the decision. Historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was 32%, with the median peak return reaching 56%. We define a sharp dip as a stock going down 20% or more in less than a 30-day period.

Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.

Trefis: MTSI Stock Insights

Historical Median Returns Post Dips

Period
Past Median Return
1M 4.9% 3M 15.4% 6M 24.4% 12M 31.8%

Historical Dip-Wise Details

MTSI had 18 events since 3/15/2012 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered

56% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
289 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
-17% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event

Date
MTSI
SPY
1Y
Peak
Return
Max
Drop
# Days
to Peak
Median 32% 56% -17% 289 3032025 -24% -1% 101% 137% -20% 364 5032023 -21% 2% 80% 82% -6% 362 5112022 -22% -15% 15% 49% -9% 301 1272022 -21% -7% 13% 24% -24% 292 9112020 -25% 3% 97% 112% -2% 171 3062020 -20% -10% 139% 187% -33% 360 4252019 -23% 4% 85% 119% -12% 286 1032019 -21% -10% 84% 95% -11% 357 10052018 -23% 1% 17% 31% -29% 342 2072018 -43% 0% -14% 33% -30% 125 11152017 -30% 1% -41% 24% -55% 54 8032017 -22% 2% -52% 4% -64% 29 7222015 -21% 2% 15% 42% -15% 254 10142014 -21% -6% 62% 120% 0% 252 5082014 -20% 1% 113% 138% -3% 320 4222013 -20% 1% 43% 64% 0% 345 8032012 -24% 5% 20% 27% -19% 181 5092012 -22% -4% -17% 15% -34% 61

1Y Refers to 1 year or time since recent dip, whichever is smaller

While the table provides a good summary of past dips for MTSI stock, isolating dips and subsequent recovery during major market crashes is another critical piece of information.

MACOM Technology Solutions Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks

Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.

Quality Metrics
Value
Quality Check
Revenue Growth (LTM) 27.0% Pass Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) 16.9% Pass Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) 23.4% Pass Leverage (see below) – Pass => Interest Coverage Ratio 33.6 => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio 104.9

While these are some basic checks required for conviction, there is a lot more to unpack before taking any investment decision.

Staying Invested Over Timing the Bottoms

Buying the dip on a stock like MTSI looks easy on a historical chart, but living through it is a high-stakes game. When a “bargain” keeps dipping, the volatility often forces investors to lose their nerve and exit right before the recovery begins. To actually capture that upside, you need a strategy that makes “staying invested” a mechanical reality rather than a test of willpower.

The Trefis High Quality Portfolio (HQ) is engineered to give you that staying power. By diversifying across 30 quality stocks, it dampens the stomach-churning drops of a market dip while retaining upside exposure. The HQ strategy has outpaced the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000 and has returned > 105% since inception.