Monday Commentary is written weekly by Dr Dennis Sammut, Director of LINKS Europe and Managing Editor of commonspace.eu
Parliamentary Elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia next Sunday (7 June). The Armenians will vote for a new parliament, and the leader of the winning party will become the prime minister, and will form the government. The incumbent, Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power in a peaceful “velvet” revolution in 2018, is defending his eventful record against a spirited, well resourced, opposition. The Armenian people have a choice in the coming election, and a clear one.
It is important to state clearly, and at the outset, that it is up to the Armenian to make this choice. Outsiders should not interfere. The next Armenian government will have important choices to make, at both the domestic and international level, and it must have the clear mandate, and the legitimacy of a popular vote, to deliver these choices.
But it seems that this does not fit the needs of Putin’s Russia. Over the last days Russia has openly interfered in Armenian politics, using the leverages it accumulated over the years. Putin has made it clear that he will not tolerate an independent minded Armenian government. Armenia was since its independence in 1991, a compliant “partner” of Russia, and fitted into Vladimir Putin’s grand strategy of surrounding Russia with countries, that whilst nominally independent, depended on Russia for their defence, economy, foreign policy, and indeed for their survival. Any attempts at independent thinking or action was to be crushed. Look what happened to Ukraine. Armenia was told bluntly that the same could happen to it.
Armenia’s big “sin” was that it expressed the wish to join the European Union. Everyone knows that this was an aspiration, rather than a decision. EU membership takes years, decades even, to negotiate. If the process starts officially now, and it has not, it will probably take twenty years to become a reality. But Putin is not taking chances. He will not allow Armenia to escape Russian clutches, even if that escape is only aspirational.
On 30 May, Russia recalled its Ambassador to Yerevan for consultations. A terse statement, published on the website of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said, “The Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Armenia, S.P. Kopyrkin, has been summoned to Moscow for consultations in connection with the steps taken by the Armenian leadership to move closer to the European Union, which are detrimental to cooperation within the EAEU.” The removal of Kopyrkin from Yerevan on the eve of the elections is more than a strange diplomatic snub. He is considered by some in Moscow as being ineffective. His absence gives Russia, including the FSB, more freedom of action in the crucial days ahead.
This followed a statement issued the day before, by the leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) that challenges the Armenian trajectory towards approximating to the European Union. In Astana, Vladimir Putin personally pushed the other four EAEU leaders to issue the statement, which said: “Taking into account the significant risks to the economic security of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (hereinafter referred to as the Union) arising in connection with the preparation of the Republic of Armenia for accession to the European Union, as well as the need to prevent the associated damage to the member states of the Union: decided that the members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council from the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and the Russian Federation will report at the next meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in December 2026 on the possible consequences of the suspension of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union with respect to the Republic of Armenia. We share the position on the need to hold a national referendum in the Republic of Armenia as soon as possible on joining the European Union or continuing to be part of the Eurasian Economic Union.”
This was on the diplomatic front, but what mattered more to Armenians were the threats and actions on the economic front.
Last week Russia suspended imports of fresh fruits, vegetables and herbs from Armenia, by a decision of Russia’s agricultural safety watchdog, Rosselkhoznadzor
“Rosselkhoznadzor is introducing temporary restrictions starting May 30, 2026, on the import of fresh tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, fresh herbs and strawberries originating in or shipped from Armenia,” the agency said in a statement.
On Saturday (30 May), speaking on Russian State TV news programme, VESTI, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, said there will never be any gas in Armenia other than Russian gas. “We know the market situation very well. There will never be any gas other than Russian gas. The only question is where Armenia will receive Russian gas from and which intermediary it will pay”. Last week Russia threatened to nullify a 2013 bilateral agreement guaranteeing Armenia duty-free natural gas and oil if it continues to pursue closer relations with the European Union”.
From these, and other similar actions in the last days, including a barrage of disinformation emanating from Moscow, it becomes clear that Russia is trying to intimidate the Armenian people, prior to Sunday’s vote.
This process must be watched carefully. Western leaders have visited Armenia in the last month, for the EPC Summit, for the Armenia-EU summit, and most recently last week the short visit of US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. Their presence in Yerevan was a message to Moscow: we will not allow you to do in Armenia what you did in Ukraine.
Sunday, the Armenian people, will make their decision. They should be allowed to make that decision freely, and without pressure. Everyone should thereafter respect that decision.
Source: Monday Commentary is written weekly by Dr Dennis Sammut, Director of LINKS Europe and Managing Editor of commonspace.eu