The Social Democrats, Left Party, and the Green Party would get their own majority if there were an election today, meaning they would not even need support of the economically liberal Centre Party, according to a new poll.
The political party preference survey by Statistics Sweden is done once a year and is highly regarded. This time, the agency has opted to split the results into two release groups.
The results released today, June 4th, show voter responses to the question: “Which party would you vote for if a parliamentary election was held in the next few days?”
According to the results, if the election were held now, the parties in the red-green block (the Social Democrats, the Left Party, and the Green Party) would have a majority in Sweden’s parliament on their own – meaning that they would not need the support of more right-leaning parties like the Centre Party or the Liberals.
Speaking of the Liberals, their showing in the poll was poor: if these were actual election results, they would be at 2.5 percent, well under the 4 percent entry threshold, and would lose their place in parliament.
The election survey done by Statistics Sweden is highly regarded. Photo: Anders Humlebo/TT
“A brutal failure for the government”
Most parties have now added their two cents on the survey.
“It is obvious that voters want their own majority that solves their everyday problems, ensures that people can afford their rent, that there is food on the table, a welfare system that works, instead of tax cuts that the Tidö government stands for,” said the Left Party’s secretary, Maria Forsberg.
The Social Democrats said they thought the figures show “a brutal failure” for the government.
“We have had far too low economic growth and far too high unemployment. Overall, it is a powerful rejection of this government,” said party secretary Tobias Baudin.
Liberal Party secretary called the survey a “snapshot” and emphasised that the Liberals often tend to gain ground in the final sprint.
“The Liberals are the decisive party in Swedish politics,” he said. “It’s the party for all the people who think schools are the most important issue and who want more freedom in their everyday lives.”
The Centre Party, which came in at 6.1 percent, a 0.6 percent increase from last year’s survey, takes the figures as evidence that they will be “the most important party in the election campaign.”
“It is only through a strong Centre Party that we can avoid Swedish politics moving to the left,” said party secretary Hannes Hervieu, regarding the poll showing a red-green majority government overall.
“Can you afford a red-green government?”
Most of the current governing parties have also had their say.
The Liberal Party, which has dropped 0.3 percentage points compared to last year’s survey and 2.1 percentage points since the 2022 election, managed to stay hopeful.
The Moderates, at 17.3 percent, also lost compared to both last year’s survey and the last election: they’re down 1 percentage point from last year and 1.8 from the 2022 election.
But they emphasized that the proportion of undecided voters in the survey is high, and take the opportunity to attack the red-greens for “bluffing” about welfare cuts.
“Our question to undecided voters: Can you afford a red-green government?” said the Moderates’ campaign manager Martin Borgs at a press conference.
Support for the Sweden Democrats, which is at 18.3 in this survey, has grown slightly since last year’s survey (up 0.3 percent) but is down 2.2 percent from the 2022 election.
But their party secretary Mattias Bäckström Johansson is still pleased.
“We are satisfied with 18.3, which is more than we had in the 2022 election campaign. So we feel that we have good conditions to contribute to winning votes that make it possible to continue to have a majority with the same government constellation,” he said.
The proportion of undecided voters in the electorate is 19.6 percent, according to Statistics Sweden.
The survey was conducted between April 28 and May 28.
The sample included 9,260 randomly selected people eligible to vote. The response rate was 49 percent.
The next set of results, which will present voter answers on political party preferences as well as some EU and NATO questions, will be released on June 10th.
The figures for each party:
Social Democrats: 33.9 percent
Sweden Democrats: 18.3 percent
Moderates: 17.3 percent
Left Party: 8.6 percent
Green Party: 6.6 percent
Centre Party: 6.1 percent
Christian Democrats: 4.5 percent
Liberals: 2.5 percent
Other parties: 2.0 percent
Source: Statistics Sweden
With reporting from TT
Want to play around with the possibilities? Check out our election widget!