Geopolitical instability and war have become the aviation sector’s most significant threat, according to a survey of aviation insurance and reinsurance professionals.
The International Union of Aerospace Insurers published the survey with the International Underwriting Association and Swiss Re.
The “IUAI Cyber and Emerging Risks Study Group Survey 2026: From Isolated Perils to Systemic Stress” is based on responses from 106 aviation insurance and reinsurance professionals worldwide.
It found systemic risks are increasingly shaping underwriting priorities and the market outlook for aviation re/insurers.
Geopolitical instability and war received 79 first-place votes, the strongest result recorded since the survey was launched in 2024.
US claims inflation was ranked as the greatest challenge facing aviation re/insurers, ahead of market conditions and rate adequacy.
Supply chain and manufacturing issues entered the industry’s top three threats for the first time, reflecting concerns over aircraft production, maintenance and repair capacity.
The survey also found operational resilience remains a major concern for airlines and airports.
Air traffic control issues, infrastructure constraints and workforce shortages were identified as the most urgent risks requiring attention in 2026.
Artificial intelligence, new aircraft technologies and growing demand for aviation services were ranked as the sector’s greatest opportunities for the third consecutive year.
The report said aviation risks are increasingly being driven by geopolitical, economic and technological developments outside the sector, rather than traditional aviation-specific exposures.
Tom Hughes, co-chair of the IUAI Cyber and Emerging Risks Study Group, director of underwriting at the International Underwriting Association and co-author of the report, said the third annual survey showed how market concerns were evolving.
“Now in its third year, the survey reveals meaningful trends in how the aerospace insurance market views both emerging risks and future opportunities,” Hughes said.
“While concerns around geopolitical instability, inflation and supply chain disruption have become more prominent, there is also a clear and consistent message of optimism.
“For the third consecutive year, respondents identified artificial intelligence, new aircraft technologies and growing demand for aviation services as the sector’s greatest opportunities.”
Hughes said the IUAI survey was becoming more representative of the aviation insurance market.
“As the IUAI’s membership continues to grow, now representing more than 90% of the global aerospace insurance market, the survey provides an increasingly representative picture of industry thinking.”
Florian Zierer, co-chair of the IUAI Cyber and Emerging Risks Study Group, aviation underwriter at Swiss Re and co-author of the report, said the findings pointed to a continued shift towards more interconnected risks.
“The findings highlight a continued shift towards risks that are systemic, interconnected and often originate outside the aviation sector itself,” Zierer said.
“Geopolitical instability, claims inflation, cyber threats and supply chain disruption all have the potential to create cascading impacts across airlines, manufacturers, airports and insurers simultaneously.
“Understanding those connections, and how they may influence future loss trends and market resilience, is critical for insurers, reinsurers and aviation operators alike.”
Zierer said the survey showed an industry adapting to a more complex risk environment.
“The results show a market that is not only adapting to a more complex risk environment, but also actively identifying new ways to support innovation, resilience and sustainable growth across the aerospace sector,” he added.