Tension over Iran and Ukraine will shape the G7 talks, as France seeks unity and crisis management. Expect limited communiques and cautious diplomacy.
Paris, June 11 – wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine will shape the upcoming G7 summit, as France hosts the leaders of the world’s leading nations and crafts an agenda aimed at demonstrating unity and avoiding confrontation with U.S. President Donald Trump.
The gathering from June 15–17 in Évian-les-Bains on the shores of Lake Geneva will bring together the leaders of France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States, along with the European Union.
Given that Trump is trying to end a war that disrupted the global economy and has aligned himself with the view that European allies did not meet his security expectations and are now overly dependent on the United States, diplomatic circles expect crisis management to be the main topic.
They also do not expect radical decisions on key issues, including addressing global economic imbalances and seeking critical minerals outside of China.
A group founded more than half a century ago has usually operated on the principle of broad consensus on economic and geopolitical questions. However, cohesion weakened after Trump’s return to the White House in 2025.
Dates have already been moved to align the celebration of Trump’s birthday and the planned boxing match on the White House lawn. Also, previous hosts of the summit and French officials lowered expectations, deeming a success that Trump would stay for the entire event.
«Macron has done everything to ensure that the agenda matches what President Trump wants»
– Josh Lipsky
Trump’s mood may depend on Iran
The pace of the summit could shape developments in the Middle East. The current temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran depends on difficult negotiations, including over Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump wants Iran to restore freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for global oil and gas supplies. Tehran, in turn, calls for lifting port blockades and thawing assets, and urges Israel to stop actions against the Islamist group Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Diplomats note that Trump’s mood could depend on whether he can seal a deal before the summit begins. In recent months he has criticized some NATO allies for their willingness to back his resort campaign in the Middle East.
One of the senior G7 diplomats stressed that sealing a deal could help move the long-standing tensions between the United States and other members of the organization.
France invited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, as well as Egypt – a key mediator. Ukraine and other countries seeking to broaden regional and global dialogue are also among the guests.
Europeans want a rethink of the United States’ stance toward Ukraine
Also invited is the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. Negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine are proving difficult, and Kyiv is insisting on a fresh impetus and a more active European role.
Zelensky worries that events around Iran could distract the United States. Meanwhile, the front-line situation is changing: Ukrainian drones are gathering intelligence and striking Russia’s internal supply lines and energy infrastructure.
European diplomats see the summit as a chance to persuade Trump that the United States’ terms for a deal are too favorable to Moscow. Europe is also moving toward readiness to engage with Moscow, alongside intensified sanctions and support for Ukraine, stressing that it is Russia, not Kyiv, hindering progress.
«What is most evident now is that Europeans are beginning to think about living with less dependence on America»
– Victor Cha
Global imbalances draw attention to China
France has moved away from a broad final communiqué and is leaning toward narrower joint statements on topics such as critical minerals, migration, and efforts to combat smuggling.
Asuka Takebayashi, a senior analyst at Mizuho Bank in Tokyo, noted that Japan and its large companies have already built up substantial reserves of critical minerals in case of supply disruptions, and Europe may turn to the United States for guidance on strategies in this area.
France uses its parliamentary mandate to emphasize global macroeconomic imbalances – an issue that has long troubled the United States – as the United States’ role on the international stage grows and attention shifts to the future G7 and G20 formats. In the discussion, France notes that China is overestimating its expenditures and focusing on domestic demand, while Europe remains underfunded.
Added to the agenda are various countries – Brazil, India, Kenya, and South Korea – with the aim of broadening the discussion. Macron also urged China to boost domestic consumption to ease global pressure.
Ultimately, the upcoming summit should demonstrate that countries are ready to act in concert to promote stability and security in a global system that needs joint decisions and accountability.
The summit concludes with a joint reaffirmation of the partners’ commitment to work together for global stability and peace.