It’s like scoring a date with Miss Universe, then having her parents come to the restaurant, with the dinner also filmed on live television.
For the All Whites, it’s a daunting scenario and one that no one really wanted.
As coach Darren Bazeley said in the pre-match press conference, it will need to be a “perfect performance”.
“We need to be flawless in everything we do,” Bazeley said.
In all the planning ahead of this tournament, the All Whites had pinpointed the matches against Iran and Egypt as the time for harvest. They were the games to pick up points, to ensure safe passage before they played the European giants.
It almost worked out that way. New Zealand had chances to beat Iran – leading twice in Los Angeles – and could have at least achieved a draw with Egypt, after holding a 1-0 advantage with 35 minutes to play.
But it didn’t come to pass. Now they have to beat the Red Devils. In terms of rankings, New Zealand’s biggest ever win came against Serbia, then at No 15, with a 1-0 win in Austria ahead of the 2010 World Cup. Apart from that, the only other top-50 scalp, since Fifa introduced rankings in 1993, was No 41 Ivory Coast, whom New Zealand beat in Toronto last year. Both those victories were meritorious but they were also friendlies, rather than in the cauldron of a World Cup.
The third layer of complication comes from Belgium’s situation. They have unexpectedly stumbled so far in North America, with consecutive draws against Egypt and Iran. It means, realistically, they also need to win to stay alive, which adds to the challenge. It’s not like the situation with Ecuador on Thursday. They were impressive in their win over Germany – to ensure progress – but the European team didn’t need a result, having already sealed top spot, which changed their emphasis.
So the All Whites face an unprecedented challenge. To achieve their biggest win, on the biggest stage. They will be severe underdogs, especially as Belgium boast some of the biggest names in the sport, with former Manchester City maestro Kevin de Bruyne, Arsenal wing Leandro Trossard and Manchester City dynamo Jeremy Doku.
But as always, there are some reasons for hope, especially in a sport like football, where shocks are more possible than in codes like rugby union or league.
Belgium are not quite Belgium
The Red Devils have not looked themselves at the tournament. They were impressive in qualification – and particularly in some pre-World Cup friendlies but have struggled so far. No Belgian player has found the net – their only strike so far was an own goal by an Egyptian – and their media have been highly critical.
“It’s impossible to be confident anymore,” said one journalist on Thursday. “We look slow, we are not playing with intensity. It’s an uneasy feeling.”
Romelu Lukaku
Belgium’s key striker has come into this tournament dramatically short of match play and sharpness. He only managed a total of 64 minutes for Napoli – due to injuries – and has yet to get completely into the groove.
Achilles heel
It’s difficult to find any Belgian weaknesses, as their team is littered with big names at big clubs. But if there is an area to expose, it could be their defending at set pieces. They conceded against the US in a pre-tournament match from a corner and also shipped another couple of goals in World Cup qualifying matches from dead-ball situations. They also happened to be New Zealand’s greatest strength, given the ability of Chris Wood, Finn Surman, Tyler Bindon and Michael Boxall in the air.
Wood needs a goal
This match could be Chris Wood’s last chance at a Fifa World Cup goal. He told the Herald two years ago that he intends to play at the 2030 edition – and who would bet against that, given his prowess, durability and drive. But you never know with football. If this is Wood’s last dance, he will be desperate to make a mark and get his name on the scoresheet and that scenario could make all the difference.
The All Whites are building
Although this is an unwanted scenario, it is also a good time to play Belgium. After two matches at the World Cup, the All Whites have adjusted to the rarified level and everything that goes with it. It was the great unknown ahead of this tournament – how would they cope – but they have mostly done well. Facing Belgium first up would have been the ultimate in deep-end learning but this is a bit more palatable.
They also have individuals tracking in the right direction. The most obvious is Libby Cacace, who has improved with each outing after all the injury problems with Wrexham last season while Surman, Elijah Just and Marko Stamenic have looked more and more assured. Ryan Thomas also looks ready to perform, after arriving at the tournament short of match fitness.
Pace to unleash
In such a high-stakes game, the All Whites have some wildcards in their pack. Jesse Randall has hardly been seen at this tournament – just 15 minutes against Iran and Egypt – and has pace that can trouble any defence, even if he is raw. Ben Old (46 minutes so far) is another possibility, with the speed and individual brilliance to make something happen, if he is given space.
Weight of expectation
All the pressure is on Belgium ahead of this match. A loss to New Zealand would not only mean elimination, it would also be the worst moment in their long and proud football history. They will still be confident – and have the personnel to dominate New Zealand – but if the All Whites can keep the game tight (ideally scoreless) until halftime or beyond then the pressure and anxiety will build on the Red Devils.
Michael Burgess has been a Sports Journalist for the New Zealand Herald since 2005, covering the Olympics, Fifa World Cups, and America’s Cup campaigns. He is a co-host of the Big League podcast.
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