South Africa double chance (+110) vs. Canada
This might be a knee-jerk reaction to South Africa looking solid against South Korea on Wednesday, while Canada was mediocre for most of its game against Switzerland.
The cumulative tournament numbers for both these teams are mostly worthless, since South Africa was dominated by Mexico when down a man for most of the second half and then down another for the closing minutes, and Canada padded its stats versus nine-man Qatar. Both teams played fairly even in their other two games, all four of which were draws or decided by one goal, so we didn’t learn much.
Canada finishing Group B runner-up hurt in two ways.
First, this game is in Los Angeles instead of Vancouver, so the home-field advantage won’t be a factor. Second, this game is four days earlier than group winner Switzerland plays, and that’s a huge issue for a Canada squad besieged by injuries. Their best player (Alphonso Davies), defender (Moise Bombito) and midfielder (Stephen Eustaquio, who played half a hour vs Switzerland) are all dealing with ailments that leave their statuses unknown for this match.
So these two teams look fairly even but are going opposite directions, with South Africa thrilled to reach a first World Cup knockout stage and Canada disappointed to be playing earlier and away from home. With all the question marks around Canada, I’ll take South Africa on the double chance (win or tie).