Syria blast probe begins amid conflicting theories on attackers

Authorities in Damascus have opened an investigation into Thursday’s deadly bombing in the heart of the Syrian capital, but the attack remains clouded by uncertainty over who carried it out and why.

On Thursday afternoon, a bomb exploded at the al‑Mashriya café on Nasr Street, less than 100 metres from the Palace of Justice in central Damascus, killing nine people and injuring more than 20 others, according to Syrian health officials.

The café is popular with lawyers and court staff, and sits close to the site where Assad‑era officials are standing trial – a detail that several Syrian analysts say may be central to understanding the message behind the attack.

In an official statement, Syria’s interior ministry said, “initial procedures and investigations showed that the explosion was caused by a homemade explosive device weighing about one kilogram, equipped with metal shrapnel,” adding that the blast caused “serious injuries and significant damage to the site”.

The ministry vowed to pursue “the perpetrators of this terrorist act, and all those behind it,” and insisted that “no one involved will escape accountability,” stressing that state institutions were continuing to “perform their duty to protect the security and stability of citizens”.

Yet more than a day after the bombing, no group has claimed responsibility, and the nature of the device – described as “primitive” by the governor of Damascus – has fed speculation that a smaller, less organised actor may have been involved.

Conflicting theories on the perpetrators

The lack of a clear claim has left space for competing theories, ranging from a covert operation by extremist cells to an attack by networks linked to the former regime of Bashar al-Assad, seeking to disrupt sensitive trials of figures such as Bashar al-Assad’s notorious cousin, Atef Najib, and Syria’s former grand mufti, Ahmed Hassoun.

Speaking to The New Arab, Hussam Hammoud, a journalist and researcher focused on armed groups, urged caution over early speculation that the bombing might be linked to the recent visit to Beirut by Syria’s Foreign Minister Assad al-Shaibani, or to Hezbollah, which supported the Assad regime during Syria’s brutal conflict.

“For me, this is an unsupported theory,” he said, noting that the atmosphere among Hezbollah supporters in recent days “wasn’t directed against the Syrian state – mainly it was directed against Israel, it was directed against the war in Lebanon. There was no indication from Hezbollah’s supporters that pointed to Damascus as a target.”

Instead, Hammoud highlighted the symbolic weight of the location. “It’s worth noting that on July 2nd, Al‑Naba, ISIS’s weekly newspaper, attacked ideologically the People’s Assembly, a sovereign institution. They called for the destruction of ‘people rules’ in favour of rule by God alone. The Palace of Justice represents a target of this same type,” he said.

In his view, “the target is the real story”: the blast took place roughly 100 metres from where Assad officials implicated in abuses are due to be put on trial, raising the possibility that the perpetrators intended to intimidate the judiciary and those pushing for accountability, rather than to hit civilians at a café per se.

One scenario under discussion among analysts is that remnants of the old security networks tied to the Assad regime – those most exposed by current legal proceedings – could have had an interest in disrupting or sending a warning around these trials. “The café wasn’t the target itself – the palace was [the target] where they wanted to affect the atmosphere,” Hammoud said.

Another theory is that clandestine jihadist cells, including the Islamic State group, may be testing the limits of security in the capital. Hammoud noted that ISIS has claimed attacks in Damascus and elsewhere in Syrian government held territory over the past year, and that ideologically, the group has recently renewed its hostility towards institutions such as the parliament and the courts.

“On one hand, I see the possibility for ISIS to claim such an attack,” he said. However, he also stressed that the nature of Thursday’s target did not fully fit ISIS’s usual pattern, and that the profile of some of the victims – reportedly including people from eastern Syria with “complex relations” to the group – complicates assumptions that this would serve ISIS’s short‑term goals, while also emphasising that the absence of a claim makes firm conclusions premature.

Attack amid political milestones in Syria

The bombing comes at a delicate time for the Syrian authorities.

In recent days, President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced the appointment of 70 new MPs, a move that government authorities have framed as “a new national milestone in the journey of building the Syrian state”. At the same time, security and justice institutions in Damascus have sought to project a narrative of stability and a sense of transitional justice by holding public trials against Assad regime figures.

For Hammoud, this combination of heightened political manoeuvring and unresolved grievances makes the Palace of Justice – and the judiciary more broadly – a potentially attractive target for actors opposed to any form of accountability over past abuses.

Despite security checkpoints across Damascus, the attack also underscores what critics describe as a brittle, quantity‑over‑quality security system put in place by the Sharaa government. Hammoud argued that “the security situation in Damascus in general doesn’t look better than the situation in other cities,” pointing to an approach that relies on numerous checkpoints rather than on effective intelligence.

He said the authorities appear to be “counting on the quantity and the heaviness of the security rather than taking quality information,” and that searches at checkpoints often remain superficial, adding that what is missing is a robust “network of informants” capable of detecting plots before they materialise. He likened the current model to past Assad‑era policies: “Just fill the whole country with checkpoints for seeing people’s faces, but without any actual protection.”

Regionally and internationally, the bombing drew swift condemnation. Governments including Qatar, Turkey, Jordan and Egypt denounced the attack, reiterated their rejection of violence and expressed solidarity with the victims’ families.

At the United Nations, Claudio Cordone, the deputy special envoy for Syria, condemned the blast and stressed the need to bring those responsible to justice.